The long-awaited destination of the 2024-25 Heisman Runner-Up and former Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is over. He is taking his talents over to Sin City and will be playing for the Las Vegas Raiders! Jeanty is one of the most hyped-up running back prospects in recent memory, rivaling Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott in the last decade. He was taken 6th overall in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft in Green Bay.
Jeanty heading to the silver and black is one of the more controversial landing spots that he could go to. While it is a clear fit for the Raiders, as they had a gaping hole in their backfield after losing Josh Jacobs to the Green Bay Packers last season in free agency. The new Head Coach, Pete Carroll, decided that aging Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White were not enough – and I think most would agree with him. The Raiders finished in last place with 1,357 rushing yards last season, which is astoundingly low. That is over 200 fewer yards than any other team in the NFL. This was a much-needed pick for the Raiders.
Ashton Jeanty Fantasy Outlook
As for Ashton Jeanty’s fantasy value, this is a more controversial pick. Part of the reason why this is a difficult destination to be excited about for Ashton Jeanty immediately is their offensive line. They were ranked 25th out of the 32 teams, according to PFF. This is concerning, but I added a quality veteran piece in Alex Cappa at the guard position.
It is important to note that the Raiders’ offensive line became a better and more cohesive unit as the season went on in 2024.
Otherwise, Ashton Jeanty is a stud, and I would be very surprised if he is not an explosive player in the NFL. He rushed for video game numbers in 2024 with the Boise State Broncos.
He totaled 2,601 rushing yards and averaged 186 rushing yards per game. Not Impressed? Well, he had 29 RUSHING touchdowns as well. Anyone putting up those numbers is bound to be given a decent look in the NFL. Those numbers are well publicized, though, so let’s get into the analysis.
He will not be averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in the NFL, but he has the home run ability to give you that a couple of weeks a year. Jeanty is going to be battling all year with the uncertainty of the game script. While the Raiders have improved throughout the offseason and their first pick is Jeanty, they are still potentially the worst team in their division. They will be going up against a Hall of Fame Coach in all of their divisional matchups six times a year in Jim Harbaugh, Andy Reid, and Sean Payton. That is tough sledding for their 2025 record and one that does not look promising, but let’s not forget they added some direction and stability with the always energetic Pete Carroll. He is way better than the experiment that was Antonio Pierce.
Opportunity
Jeanty’s battling game script will be tough for consistency purposes, but an offense featuring Geno Smith is much better than running out Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Geno is much better off on the play action, and Jeanty is going to be able to provide a threat out of the backfield. This will hopefully allow them to stay in the game longer and give Jeanty the opportunity for more carries.
Jeanty is going to get every opportunity in early downs, he may average 12-14 carries in the first half alone. That does not scare me from a durability perspective because last season he nearly averaged 27 carries a game. Pete Carroll also loves to run the ball, almost to a fault. That also encourages me for Jeanty’s 2024 outlook. Opportunity will only be hindered by the game script, but that will not stop me from drafting him in 2025.
Comparison
Two names immediately came to mind for me when I thought about Ashton Jeanty’s 2025 fantasy season with the Las Vegas Raiders. Bijan Robinson’s rookie year and Kenneth Walker’s first year in Seattle. Yes, Bijan is the last prominent running back to come into the league with such an investment. Yes, Walker was the running back of head coach Pete Carroll’s last squad, but I think it is warranted.
Bijan Robinson’s first year with the Falcons was underwhelming. In some circles, he was going as a first-round pick, which was frustrating for some as he ended up tanking their season, but Bijan played well his first year, considering the circumstances. Arthur Smith criminally underutilized explosive top-10 picks in Atlanta, as well as the Falcons just not being that good. Bijan averaged 12 fantasy points per game that year, but that did not tell the full story. He had five weeks under 10 half-ppr points, including the week were he had the stomach bug issue where he should not have played. However, the rest of the weeks provided a top 15 running back you were happy to start. I think this comparison is similar to where Jeanty will land.
Jeanty will definitely run the ball more than goofball Arthur Smith did, but the lack of talent and stability on the Raiders’ offensive line will allow him to have those frustrating weeks.
Kenneth Walker’s 2022 in Seattle was electrifying for those who picked him up on the waiver wire after Rashaad Penny went down to a season-ending injury. Walker had the burst of Jeanty and at 5’9’’ is very similar to the thick, but smaller frame of the 5’8” Jeanty. I think this is the more realistic outlook for Jeanty. He can go for the home run, but in down weeks, he still gives you that floor of 11 to 13 (Half-PPR) points. Similar to Walker’s 2022, he may slow down due to the heavy workload Pete Carroll can force upon his players.
Overall
Overall, I see Ashton Jeanty’s 2025 going better than Bijan’s rookie year in Atlanta, and more in the range of Walker’s 2022. This gives him RB1 upside and will be ranked as such. He is a borderline RB1 in my rankings and expect him to be a late second-round pick in most drafts. I strongly advise against taking him in the first round. There is so much talent out there to do that this early, and it would echo some of the mistakes of the last couple of years, like Marvin Harrison Jr. last year and Bijan the year before that. The only thing I do know 100% is that……. He will look great in the Silver and Black.
Dynasty
Just take him number 1 overall, and do not look back.
