Fantasy football is unpredictable every year, but that’s exactly what makes identifying potential league-changing outcomes so valuable. Simply following ADP isn’t going to win your league. At some point, you have to plant your flag on players you believe the market is getting wrong.
Some of these predictions will look ridiculous by the end of the season. That’s the point. From Bhayshul Tuten emerging as a legitimate RB1 to Jayden Daniels falling outside the top 10 quarterbacks, these are 10 of my boldest predictions for the 2026 fantasy football season.
1. Bhayshul Tuten Finishes as a Top-12 Running Back
Bhayshul Tuten’s rookie numbers don’t jump off the page, but his efficiency and athletic profile tell a much more interesting story. Tuten ranked fifth among qualifying running backs in rushing success rate, 11th in missed tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He also scored seven touchdowns on only 93 offensive touches and averaged 12.8 fantasy points in games where he received at least 10 touches. The athletic upside has never been a question either. Tuten ran a 4.32 forty and posted a 98th-percentile Speed Score coming out of Virginia Tech.
Now he finally has an opportunity to turn that efficiency into volume. Travis Etienne is gone after handling 296 touches last season, leaving Tuten and Chris Rodriguez to take over Jacksonville’s backfield. Rodriguez should remain involved, particularly around the goal line, but Tuten has spent camp looking comfortable as Jacksonville’s lead option while also showing more as a receiver. The Jaguars don’t need to give him 300 touches for this prediction to hit. If Tuten captures 60% or more of the backfield work, his combination of explosiveness, receiving upside, and Liam Coen’s offense gives him a legitimate path to an RB1 season.
2. Tyler Warren Finishes as the TE1 Overall
Tyler Warren’s rookie season was already impressive, but his final fantasy finish doesn’t show how close he was to becoming an elite option. Warren finished as the TE10 in fantasy points per game while ranking fourth at the position in expected fantasy points per game. He ranked sixth among tight ends in target share and first-read share while finishing fifth in red-zone targets and eighth in end-zone targets. Despite all of those high-value opportunities, Warren scored only four receiving touchdowns. That’s exactly the type of profile I want to bet on taking another step in Year 2.
There is also room for Warren to become an even bigger part of Indianapolis’ offense. Michael Pittman Jr. is gone, and while the Colts added Keenan Allen, Warren remains one of their most dangerous weapons. He led Indianapolis with 19 red-zone targets and 11 targets inside the 10 last season while averaging 6.2 yards after the catch per reception, the best mark among tight ends with at least 100 targets. Warren is currently dealing with a groin injury, but his Week 1 status isn’t considered in serious danger. If Daniel Jones stays healthy and Warren converts more of those scoring opportunities, he has the volume and efficiency to jump Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for TE1 overall.
3. De’Zhaun Stribling Finishes as a Top-24 Wide Receiver
De’Zhaun Stribling has gone from an intriguing rookie sleeper to one of my favorite late-round receivers. San Francisco selected him 33rd overall after he averaged 2.15 and 2.44 yards per route run during his final two college seasons. He also brings legitimate explosiveness with a 4.36 forty and showed the ability to create after the catch throughout college. The opportunity opened dramatically when Ricky Pearsall underwent season-ending knee surgery, and Stribling hasn’t wasted it.
Stribling led San Francisco with seven catches for 63 yards in his preseason debut and followed that with four catches for 46 yards on five targets in his second game. That’s 11 receptions for 109 yards across his first two NFL preseason appearances, and importantly, San Francisco wasn’t hiding him against backups. He saw significant work against Tennessee’s first-team defense in his debut. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Christian Kirk give the 49ers veteran alternatives, but Evans and Kirk have significant recent injury histories while Samuel is no longer the target hog he was during his first stint in San Francisco. Stribling is dealing with a minor shoulder injury entering the season, but the role is there. If his preseason usage carries over, WR24 is firmly within his range of outcomes.
4. Trevor Lawrence Finishes as a Top-3 Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence finally became the quarterback everyone expected him to be during his first season with Liam Coen. Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards while accounting for 38 total touchdowns and finishing as the QB4 overall. He also added career highs with 359 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. The biggest reason I’m expecting another leap is what happened once Lawrence became comfortable in the offense. Over his first 10 games, he averaged 16.6 fantasy points and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game. Over his final seven, those numbers exploded to 26.6 fantasy points and 2.6 passing touchdowns. His passer rating jumped from 79.4 to 108.6 during that stretch.
Lawrence was the QB1 over the final 10 weeks and now gets an entire offseason in Coen’s system rather than having to learn another offense. Jacksonville still has Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange, while Lawrence’s rushing production gives him the type of ceiling necessary to compete with the elite dual-threat quarterbacks. There are still areas that need improvement, particularly his 60.9% completion rate, but Lawrence doesn’t need a hypothetical breakout anymore. We watched it happen last season. If the quarterback we saw down the stretch becomes the version Jacksonville gets for 17 games, Lawrence can challenge for QB1 overall.
5. Ladd McConkey Finishes Inside the Top 10
I’m willing to completely throw out Ladd McConkey’s disappointing sophomore season and bet on the player we saw as a rookie. McConkey averaged 2.6 yards per route run and finished as the WR13 in fantasy points per game during his first NFL season before falling to WR34 last year. Even during that down season, the splits showed exactly how Los Angeles should be using him. McConkey’s yards per route run increased 93% when used in pre-snap motion, while his first downs per route run jumped 150% and his fantasy points per route increased 75%.
Enter Mike McDaniel. His offenses have consistently been among the NFL’s most motion-heavy units, and that system is almost perfectly designed around McConkey’s strengths. Keenan Allen is also gone after leading the Chargers in targets last season, creating an opportunity for McConkey to establish himself as Justin Herbert’s clear No. 1 receiver. McConkey has been dealing with a hamstring issue this offseason but expects to be fully healthy entering the season. I’m not betting on the WR34 we saw in an offense that failed to maximize his skill set. I’m betting on the receiver who produced borderline WR1 numbers as a rookie now playing for a coach whose offense specializes in creating free releases and space for players exactly like him.
6. Greg Dulcich Finishes as a Top-12 Tight End
Greg Dulcich might be my favorite late-round tight end in fantasy football. His 2025 box score of 26 receptions for 335 yards and one touchdown across 10 games doesn’t look special, but his per-route numbers absolutely were. Dulcich ranked fifth among qualifying tight ends with a 24% target-per-route-run rate, second with 2.64 yards per route run, second with 7.69 yards after the catch per reception, fifth in first downs per route run, and sixth in fantasy points per route. Those are borderline elite efficiency numbers hiding behind an extremely small workload.
Miami finally gives Dulcich an opportunity to turn that efficiency into legitimate volume. The Dolphins have very little proven receiving talent around Malik Willis, and Dulcich sits atop a tight end depth chart featuring Will Kacmarek, Seydou Traore, and Ben Sims. Miami’s front office has publicly identified Dulcich as a player it expects to take another step this season. He’s currently nursing a minor injury, but the expectation is that he’ll return shortly rather than miss significant regular-season time. Durability will always be the concern with Dulcich, but we’re barely paying anything to find out. If he finally stays healthy and earns an every-down role, TE12 might actually be a conservative projection.
7. Christian McCaffrey Finishes Outside the Top 12 Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in fantasy points per game last season, so predicting him to fall completely outside the RB1 tier sounds ridiculous. That’s exactly why it’s one of my hottest takes. McCaffrey handled roughly 450 touches across 19 games last season and turned 30 this offseason. We’ve seen this workload pattern before. He handled 403 touches in 2019 before injuries destroyed his next two seasons, then accumulated 417 touches across 19 games in 2023 before being limited to four games the following year.
There are also signs underneath the massive workload that McCaffrey isn’t quite the same runner anymore. He has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer in consecutive seasons, and last year he ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. His receiving role remains elite and could easily make this prediction look terrible if he stays healthy, but that’s the bet I’m making. McCaffrey has already dealt with tightness during camp and recently missed practice while being listed day-to-day. At age 30, immediately following another enormous workload, I’m betting the wear finally catches up with him enough to push him outside the top 12.
8. George Pickens Does NOT Finish as a WR1
George Pickens was incredible last season, finishing as the WR5 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs with 93 receptions, 1,429 yards, and nine touchdowns. He deserved the franchise tag Dallas gave him this offseason and remains one of the best vertical receivers in football. But fantasy managers are now paying for that career year to happen again, and I’m not convinced the underlying target distribution supports it.
Pickens’ production looked much different whenever CeeDee Lamb was healthy. In those games, Pickens averaged around 15.5 fantasy points while commanding only a 20.4% target share. That’s still extremely useful, but it looks much more like WR2 production than a locked-in top-12 receiver. Lamb remains the focal point of Dallas’ passing attack, and Pickens will need to maintain last year’s elite downfield efficiency and touchdown production without receiving true alpha-level volume. The Cowboys also draw one of the more difficult projected schedules for fantasy receivers. Pickens doesn’t have to bust for this prediction to hit. He could catch 80 passes for 1,200 yards and have an excellent NFL season while still finishing outside the top 12 fantasy receivers.
9. Isaiah Likely Finishes Outside the Top 14 Tight Ends
This might be my most uncomfortable take because almost everything coming out of Giants camp has been positive. New York gave Isaiah Likely a three-year, $40 million contract, reunited him with John Harbaugh, and has reportedly been intent on featuring him throughout training camp. Malik Nabers’ recovery also creates a potential opening for additional early-season targets. The breakout case is obvious, which is why Likely has become such a popular sleeper.
I’m betting against the hype. Likely has never received more than 60 targets in an NFL season, and his best year produced only 42 receptions for 477 yards. Last season he caught 27 passes for 307 yards and one touchdown while averaging just 4.4 fantasy points per game. Baltimore obviously limited his opportunities behind Mark Andrews, but we’re now projecting a massive volume increase simply because his situation changed. Nabers will eventually reclaim his position as the focal point of the passing attack, while the Giants still project to operate one of the league’s more run-heavy offenses. Likely should set career highs across the board, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’ll become a weekly TE1. With expectations continuing to rise, I’m betting he finishes outside the top 14.
10. Jayden Daniels Does NOT Finish as a Top-10 Quarterback
Jayden Daniels’ rookie season showed us how high his fantasy ceiling can be, but his sophomore season also exposed how fragile that projection becomes when injuries and the supporting cast start working against him. Daniels struggled to stay healthy throughout 2025, and Washington enters 2026 with questions throughout its offense. The biggest recent blow is the loss of left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who suffered a triceps injury requiring surgery. Washington now has to reshuffle an offensive line that will be responsible for protecting a quarterback whose durability is already one of my biggest concerns.
Daniels is healthy entering the season and has reportedly looked much more like himself during camp, so this isn’t a prediction that he’s suddenly become a bad quarterback. The concern is everything required for him to justify his current fantasy price. Washington has a new offensive coordinator, questions surrounding its receiving depth, and one of the more difficult projected quarterback schedules. Daniels’ rushing ability will always create enormous weekly upside, but relying heavily on that rushing production also increases the physical punishment he takes. After an injury-plagued sophomore season and now the loss of his Pro Bowl left tackle, I’m willing to bet the volatility wins out. Daniels can have a perfectly good NFL season and still finish outside the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in an extremely deep position.
These Aren’t Supposed to Be Safe Predictions
If I wanted to make 10 predictions everyone agreed with, they wouldn’t be hot takes. Tuten, Warren, Stribling, McConkey, and Dulcich are bets on talent and opportunity creating breakouts larger than the market expects. Lawrence is a bet that last year’s second-half explosion was the beginning of his prime rather than a temporary hot streak.
The other side is betting against some of fantasy football’s most popular names. McCaffrey’s workload scares me at age 30, Pickens is being priced near last year’s ceiling, Likely’s expectations have exploded before we’ve ever seen him handle significant NFL volume, and Daniels carries more risk than his draft price suggests.
I’ll undoubtedly be wrong on some of these. But if even a handful hit, they could completely reshape the 2026 fantasy football season.
