The 7-3 Buffalo Bills travel to Houston to take on the 5-5 Texans after a short week, coming off an impressive win vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, thanks to some Josh Allen heroics. Buffalo benched Keon Coleman last week due to Coleman missing a Friday meeting; however, it was recently reported that Coleman may once again be a healthy scratch this game, signifying what could be the end of his opportunities. Houston, on the other hand, is coming off back-to-back victories to bring them back into playoff contention in the AFC.
Stats to Know
Let’s dive deep into the offenses. The Buffalo Bills are 2nd in the league in total yards per game (387.4) and are 4th in points per game (29.2). The Houston Texans, on the other hand, are 19th in yards per game (329.6), and are 21st in points per game (22.0)—a 58-yard difference and about a 7-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 12th in yards allowed per game (322.7). The Bills rank 14th with 22.9 points allowed per game. Houston, on the other hand, is impressively 1st in the league through 11 weeks in yards allowed (258.1) and 1st in points allowed per game (16.3). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 64 yards more than the Texans and allows almost 7 more points per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 322 total yards and about 22 points, while the Texans’ offense should have around 325 yards and about 23 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a minuscule 1-point and 3-yard disadvantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -6, favoring Buffalo. The Texans are 4-6 covering the spread, while the Bills are 5-5 covering. Betting the Bills at -6 is not favorable, as mentioned earlier, the Houston Texans’ defense only allows 16.3 points per game, and despite our win versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo remains inconsistent.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this Thursday night matchup.
- Cole Bishop had a rough start this season, but the second-year safety has come a long way since week 1. Bishop has been all over the field since the bye week and has had interceptions in back-to-back games. Bishop looks to make it three in a row tonight.
- Keon Coleman had so much potential heading into this season. A decent rookie season had many fans excited about a potential breakout season. Coleman followed up the hype by dominating the Ravens in week 1, but he has been painfully quiet since. Coleman looks to be a healthy scratch again this week.
- Nico Collins has been dominating over the last 3 games, in which Collins has 23 receptions for 303 yards and a Touchdown. Collins might create a problem for the young Bills secondary during a short week.
- Nick Chubb has had his role diminished as rookie Woody Marks has been impressive. Only 8 carries in the last 2 games make Chubb a non-factor heading into this matchup, as the seasoned veteran is at the tail end of his career.
Game Predictions
I predict Buffalo wins the game 24-20, Taron Johnson gets an interception, and Tyrell Shavers gets another Touchdown. Josh Allen also just needs one more touchdown to be the all-time leader in QB rushing touchdowns.
A Look Ahead
After this week, the Bills get a brief break before playing the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh. Followed by the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Buffalo in week 14, where Joe Burrow might come back, making it an interesting matchup.
Check out all of my previous articles alongside all regular season articles available here: 2025 Season Series, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss tonight’s matchup!
