Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders Week 6 Preview

The 4-1 Buffalo Bills stayed west after last Monday’s exhilarating performance to better prepare for the 3-2 Las Vegas Raiders. Head Coach Joe Brady emphasized ball security this week, as James Cook fumbled twice in Monday Night’s game, so it will be interesting to see whether Cook’s touches are affected.

Stats to Know

Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills rank 4th in the league in total yards per game (396.2) and T-1st in points per game (32.8) after a 4-1 start to the season, leading the AFC East. The Las Vegas Raiders enter tonight’s matchup ranked 14th in yards per game (335.6). The Raiders rank lower in points per game, ranking 8th (26.4)—about a 60-yard and 7-point advantage for the Bills.

Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 30th in yards allowed per game (388.6). The Bills rank 28th in points allowed per game (28.2). Las Vegas, meanwhile, ranks 27th in yards allowed per game (377.0) and T-22nd in points allowed per game (25.8) through five weeks. That leaves Buffalo allowing just 12 more yards and roughly 2 more points per game than the Raiders.

Let’s average these numbers. The Bills’ offense should total around 387 yards and 29 points, while the Raiders’ offense should total around 363 yards and 27 points tomorrow. This gives the Bills a slim 2-point advantage and a 24-yard edge overall, with the Vegas line at -5.5 favoring Buffalo; that seems a bit steep given how close these offenses have been, while the Raiders’ defense has been bad and the Bills’ defense has been worse. I would take the Bills ML, but -5.5 seems extreme given the numbers above.

Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold

As always, let’s look at some hot and cold players on both teams heading into this playoff matchup. 

• 🔥 Ty Johnson is the quiet unsung hero in the Bills’ offense. His 3rd-down role over the past few seasons hasn’t gone unnoticed. He had a quiet game against the Patriots, but he’s caught 4 passes for 50+ yards over the past 3 weeks and could come in clutch for Buffalo again in Las Vegas.
• 🥶 Dalton Kincaid is cold in back-to-back weeks, following up his 1 reception for 7 yards with another 1 reception for 7 yards. Over the last 3 weeks, Kincaid has only 4 receptions for 52 yards, and Week 3 accounts for most of that. Kincaid needs to be the Tight End we saw in weeks 1 and 2 consistently.
• 🔥 Brock Bowers is on an absolute rampage. Bowers is 2nd in receiving yards among TEs, only 4 yards behind Sam LaPorta, and Bowers missed weeks 1 and 2 with an injury. Bowers is averaging over 100 yards per game and has a TD in all 3 games he’s played in. He’ll be absolute trouble for a soulless Buffalo defense.
• 🥶 Maxx Crosby has been quiet since his 1.5-sack Week 1 performance, but he’s only registered 0.5 sacks in his last 4 games. Crosby looks to get back on track Sunday afternoon.

Game Predictions

Buffalo wins another, 34-26, moving to 5-1. Greg Rousseau gets another sack, his first since Week 3, and Brock Bowers dominates the field with over 100 yards and a TD.

Other Content

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