Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
We are live right now answering everyone’s questions till 12 pm EST! Click the video above
Running Backs to Start
Rico Dowdle CAR
Last week, Rico Dowdle logged 17 touches and totaled 12.4 fantasy points, finishing ahead of Chuba Hubbard in snaps and opportunities. Over the last two games, Dowdle has averaged 18.5 touches and 66.5 total yards while maintaining a 50.8% snap rate and a 32.7% route share. Among 48 qualifying running backs this season, he ranks 15th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt, highlighting his ability to generate meaningful gains even in a split backfield. Carolina faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed running backs to hit 15-plus fantasy points in 11 games this year, including six of the past six weeks. The Buccaneers rank 10th in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backs and struggle through the passing game, giving up the most receiving yards to the position both on the season and since Week 11. Dowdle’s workload and efficiency, combined with a favorable matchup, make him a strong RB2 candidate this week.
The matchup against Tampa Bay provides a solid opportunity for Dowdle to maintain his production despite recent struggles in rushing efficiency. He has recorded a yards-per-carry mark of 3.2 or less in four of his past five games, but his fantasy output has remained consistent, scoring at least 11.4 PPR points in five of his last six outings. Carolina’s offensive game plan has leaned on both backs, but Dowdle’s red zone involvement and receiving opportunities give him a safer floor. The Buccaneers allow 1.5 yards before contact per carry, ranking in the bottom five in the NFL, which could lead to home-run plays for a back who excels after contact. Dowdle has also been a factor in the passing game, enhancing his fantasy ceiling against a defense that struggles to defend backs out of the backfield. With playoff implications on the line, the Panthers are likely to give him ample work, keeping him firmly in RB2 territory. His combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup makes him a reliable option for Week 16.
Aaron Jones MIN
Aaron Jones has been underwhelming in recent weeks, producing single-digit fantasy outputs in four straight games, but a favorable matchup against the Giants could reverse his fortunes. Since Week 14, Jones has averaged 14.5 touches and 70.5 total yards per game while commanding a 51.3% snap rate and a 45.5% route share. He has led the backfield in touches but has seen limited goal-line work, with only two red zone carries over the past two games compared to Jordan Mason’s six. Statistically, the Giants have been one of the NFL’s worst run defenses since Week 11, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt. Over the past seven games, nine opposing running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Giants, reinforcing the attractiveness of this matchup.
Jones’ usage profile and the Giants’ defensive weaknesses make him a solid RB2 option this week. Despite his recent low-scoring stretch, his volume remains intact, and his ability to produce both on the ground and through the air gives him a safe floor. The Giants have allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per carry and 2.2 yards before contact per rush since Week 11, ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate and overall rushing defense. While Jones has yet to find the end zone since Week 10, a breakout touchdown or big play is plausible given the matchup. He continues to operate ahead of Jordan Mason in passing situations, which is crucial in PPR formats. His floor is safer than many backs on the board in that RB3 range, while the ceiling remains meaningful if he breaks a long run or finds the end zone.
Quinshon Judkins CLE
Quinshon Judkins has seen modest production on the ground recently, but his role in the passing game has given him a floor in PPR formats. He has received at least three targets in each of the past three games, including a season-high four last week. Judkins has averaged 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards while ranking 13th in snap share and 16th in weight opportunities this season. The volume has been there, but he is not breaking off big runs consistently, as he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate. The rookie has already shown upside with multi-touchdown games earlier in the season, but his floor is more reliant on the matchup. Buffalo’s run defense has allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most touchdowns to backs this year, while ranking among the bottom three in explosive run rate allowed. This creates a high-upside spot for Judkins to post RB2 numbers at home in Week 16.
Buffalo’s defensive struggles against the run have been further amplified in recent weeks. Since Week 11, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-highest rushing success rate. Several running backs have scored multiple touchdowns in recent matchups against Buffalo, indicating that even a moderate workload can translate into meaningful fantasy points. Judkins had a difficult outing against Chicago with just 17 total yards on 15 touches, but the matchup against Buffalo offers redemption. The Bills have surrendered five rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past three games, highlighting their vulnerability near the goal line. Judkins’ role in both the rushing and passing game gives him a solid floor, and the matchup enhances his upside potential. If he finds the end zone or breaks a long play, he could easily post an RB2 stat line. Fantasy managers can expect a bounce-back performance this week.
Running Backs to Sit
Ashton Jeanty LV
Ashton Jeanty has struggled in recent weeks, producing just 14 combined fantasy points in his last two games, including a shutout loss against the Eagles. Over that span, he has been limited in both rushing volume and efficiency, averaging fewer than 35 yards in three of his last four games. Jeanty has a decent usage profile with 17.8 touches and 69 total yards per game, ranking sixth in snap share and second in opportunity share among 43 qualifying backs. Despite this, Houston’s defense has been stingy against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry in 2025 and ranking top 10 in limiting fantasy points to opposing backs over the past five weeks. Jeanty’s production through the air has also dropped, totaling just 15 yards on 10 targets across his last two games. With volume and efficiency both capped, Jeanty faces a challenging matchup in Week 16.
Houston’s defensive profile suggests that Jeanty may struggle again this week. Since Week 11, the Texans rank fourth-fewest in rushing yards allowed, third-lowest in missed tackle rate, and fourth-fewest in yards before contact per carry. They have also allowed just two total touchdowns to running backs over the last five weeks. While Geno Smith’s potential return may marginally improve offensive efficiency, the Raiders’ offense is unlikely to generate enough opportunities for Jeanty to produce reliably. His previous games against Denver and Philadelphia underscore the difficulty of this matchup, with a combined 14 fantasy points over two outings. Jeanty is now more of a low-ceiling flex rather than a starter-level running back.
Tony Pollard TEN
Tony Pollard has been extremely productive over the past two weeks, totaling 46.3 fantasy points and three touchdowns, but he faces a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16. Since Week 14, he has averaged 20 touches and 135.5 total yards per game while logging a 56.3% snap rate. His production has come largely on the ground, with minimal involvement in the passing game—only two targets over the past two weeks. Kansas City ranks among the NFL’s stingiest defenses against running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest yards after contact, and bottom-five in explosive run rate since Week 11. Only seven running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Chiefs this season, limiting Pollard’s upside. While he is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, this matchup is more likely to cap his production than extend it.
Pollard’s floor remains reasonable, but the ceiling is limited against Kansas City. Volume alone may not be enough to generate a strong fantasy day, especially without a passing game boost. The matchup is risk-heavy, as the Chiefs consistently prevent backs from reaching double-digit points, making Pollard a candidate for a flex rather than a top-two RB option. Even with his hot streak over the past two weeks, this game likely favors safer RB2 or bench options. Fantasy managers should temper expectations and prepare for a performance like he had before his hot stretch.
Omarion Hampton LAC
Omarion Hampton has seen limited usage since returning from injury, averaging 15.5 touches and 66 total yards per game. His snap rate sits at 33.8% with only a 17.6% route share and 5.5% target share, limiting his involvement in the passing game. Hampton has recorded six red zone rushing attempts over two games, but his efficiency has been low, with just 1.25 yards after contact per attempt and an 11% missed tackle rate. Dallas has been a stout run defense since Week 11, ranking second-fewest in rushing yards allowed per game and limiting yards before and after contact for backs. While Hampton has shown upside with previous 20-point games early on this season, recent returns have been modest, posting 7.5 and 14.7 fantasy points over two games. His overall role is limited right now with Kimani Vidal still heavily involved.
Hampton’s recent workload and efficiency metrics indicate he is best viewed as a low-end flex this week. Dallas has consistently shut down opposing backs, holding multiple players in check outside of Jahmyr Gibbs over the last five weeks. Even with touchdowns, Hampton is unlikely to match prior high-end fantasy outputs given the defense’s strength and his limited passing role. While he has scored in past games, his floor is volatile due to both snap share and touches. With the Chargers leaning on multiple backs and Dallas maintaining a stingy front, Hampton’s upside is capped, and fantasy managers should seek higher-floor options. He can contribute but is far from a reliable RB2 play this week.
