Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Tight Ends to Start
Darren Waller MIA
Darren Waller enters Week 16 on a hot streak, coming off a huge Week 15 performance at Pittsburgh, where he caught seven passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns on just eight targets. Over the six games he has played this season, excluding his Week 7 injury, Waller has averaged a 61.5% route share with a 15.7% target share, 40.5 receiving yards per game, and an 18.9% first-read share. He has also totaled seven red zone targets, four deep targets, and six touchdowns in that span. If Waller maintains this pace, he would rank as the TE5 in fantasy points per game over a full season. His ability to stay a consistent red zone threat has been evident, as he has had at least one red zone target in every game except for Week 7, when he suffered a pec injury. Despite the quarterback change with Quinn Ewers replacing Tua Tagovailoa, Waller’s rapport with the offense should allow him to continue producing.
The matchup this week is as good as it gets for tight ends, as the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season. Thirteen different tight ends have scored at least 10.7 PPR points against Cincinnati this year, emphasizing how exploitable the Bengals’ coverage has been. In PPR scoring, no team allows more points to the position than Cincinnati, with Pittsburgh trailing by nearly six points per game. Waller’s red zone presence, combined with the Bengals’ defensive vulnerabilities, makes him a reliable start at tight end. Even with the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position, volume and opportunity are on Waller’s side. Fantasy managers can feel confident locking him into their lineups this week.
Dallas Goedert PHI
Dallas Goedert has found a groove over the past two weeks, catching 17 passes for over 70 yards in each game and scoring two red zone touchdowns in Week 15 against Las Vegas. Over that span, Goedert has posted TE5 and TE3 weekly finishes, cementing his role in Philadelphia’s passing attack. He currently averages 42.4 receiving yards per game with a 19% target share, 1.54 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share, reflecting efficiency and involvement. Goedert is tied for the team lead with 11 red zone targets and also contributes six deep targets. His recent surge comes against defenses that are tougher than his upcoming matchup, indicating upside for Week 16.
This week’s matchup against Washington is favorable, as the Commanders have allowed the second-most touchdowns and fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Since Week 10, four of the past five tight ends to face Washington have scored at least 10.2 PPR points. Goedert has averaged over 11.1 PPR points in three of his past five meetings with the Commanders dating back to 2022. His volume and red zone presence make him a solid TE1 option for fantasy managers. Fantasy managers should expect Goedert to continue delivering consistent, top-10 tight end production in this great matchup. With the combination of recent usage and the matchup, Goedert is in an ideal spot this week.
Kyle Pitts ATL
Kyle Pitts has taken his production to a new level over the past few weeks, highlighted by his Week 15 career-high 45.6 fantasy points, the most by a tight end this season. Pitts has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last three games and has been the top target for Kirk Cousins in four consecutive outings. His efficiency in the passing game is complemented by volume, as he consistently leads the team in targets while operating as the primary receiving weapon. Pitts’ output has been especially impressive given Drake London’s absence, and he remains a focal point regardless of London’s potential return. The Cardinals, who he faces this week, have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards this season and fifth-most since Week 11. They have also conceded the second-most touchdowns to tight ends during that stretch, providing a favorable environment for fantasy production.
Pitts’ matchup against Arizona is primed for continued success, with four of the past five tight ends to face the Cardinals scoring at least 12.2 PPR points. Even with potential defensive adjustments, Pitts’ target share and red zone involvement give him a high floor. Fantasy managers can expect a top-three tight end performance from Pitts, particularly if London misses another game. His recent surge, volume, and matchup combine to make him one of the most reliable fantasy options at the position. Pitts is playing like he wants a massive contract extension this offseason, and fantasy managers should feel confident starting him this week in all formats.
Tight Ends to Sit
Hunter Henry NE
Hunter Henry struggled in Week 15 against Buffalo, recording just one catch for 18 yards on three targets. Henry has hit double digits just twice since Week 5, showing volatility and limited upside in tough matchups. His season averages — 44.9 receiving yards per game, 16.8% target share, 1.70 yards per route run, and 19.2% first-read share — are solid but not matchup-proof. The most encouraging part of his game is that he ranks third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. Despite usage exactly where you want to see it, New England’s passing game is heavily dependent on the matchup as to who sees a majority of the volume.
His upcoming matchup against the Ravens is going to be difficult, and I don’t expect a great performance, as Baltimore ranks sixth-fewest in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Since Week 6, Baltimore has allowed only one touchdown to a tight end, and no tight end has scored double digits in PPR over that span. Henry’s inconsistent usage and reliance on efficiency make him a risky play in Week 16. His highs are high, but his floor is vulnerable against elite coverage units. Fantasy managers would be wise to treat Henry as a low-end option in deep leagues only.
Harold Fannin Jr CLE
Harold Fannin Jr. has been a volume machine since Week 12 under Shedeur Sanders, averaging 61.3 receiving yards per game with a 28.5% target share. He has posted three red zone targets, two deep targets, and scored two touchdowns in that span, ranking TE5 in fantasy points per game. Fannin has also scored double digits in three straight weeks, highlighting his role as a primary offensive weapon despite Cleveland’s quarterback carousel. He ranks second among tight ends in targets with 99, and his 7.1 targets per game average indicates a consistent path to production. While Fannin has seen a significant amount of volume this season, it has not directly translated into fantasy points consistently due to the Browns’ struggles on offense.
His Week 16 matchup against Buffalo severely limits upside, as the Bills have been a nightmare for opposing tight ends this season. The Bills have allowed the fewest receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, with a league-low 7 PPR points per game allowed. Only Travis Kelce and Mike Gesicki have scored double digits against Buffalo this season. Despite Fannin’s volume and efficiency, the elite coverage by the Bills makes him a low-floor option this week. Fantasy managers should sit him in favor of higher-upside tight ends such as Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz off the waiver wire this week.
Theo Johnson NYG
Theo Johnson has quietly been producing for the Giants, posting 528 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 72 targets through 14 games. He has topped 70 receiving yards in three of his last five games and scored at least 10.2 PPR points in four of his past six contests. Johnson has a 19.3% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share, showing a solid floor in New York’s passing attack. His red zone involvement and deep target share highlight his upside potential, especially in favorable matchups. While Johnson has been impressive this season, he has not scored a touchdown in six weeks, resulting in no games over 15 points.
Unfortunately, Minnesota presents a tough test in Week 16. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and ninth-fewest yards per target to tight ends since Week 10. No tight end has scored a touchdown in the last five games against Minnesota, and double-digit PPR performances are rare. Johnson’s volume alone is unlikely to overcome the defensive matchup that has rarely allowed touchdowns over the past month. As we have seen, while his floor might be higher with his usage, the ceiling has been limited as of late without the touchdowns. He remains a low-end streaming option this week, who lacks a ceiling when you need it most.
