Thursday Night Football gives us an interesting fantasy matchup in Week 3 with the Atlanta Falcons traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Neither offense has been particularly consistent through two weeks, but there are several major changes heading into Thursday night. Michael Penix Jr. is returning to Atlanta’s starting lineup, while Green Bay should have an opportunity to attack a Falcons secondary that will be without A.J. Terrell.
There are two players we aren’t overthinking in this game, but almost everyone else carries some level of uncertainty. Green Bay’s passing game gives us several players I’m willing to trust, while Atlanta’s offense becomes much more interesting with Penix back under center.
Lineup Locks
- Bijan Robinson
- Christian Watson
There aren’t any real decisions to make with these two. Robinson already has 155 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards through two games despite Atlanta’s offensive struggles, while Watson has immediately re-established himself as Green Bay’s top receiving weapon. Watson followed his 147-yard, two-touchdown opener with 11 targets and another touchdown in Week 2, and Jayden Reed’s injury should only further consolidate the Packers’ passing game around him.
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love’s Week 2 box score wasn’t anything special, as he finished with only 145 passing yards against the Jets, but he still threw two touchdowns and has now accounted for multiple passing scores in each of Green Bay’s first two games. We already saw the ceiling in Week 1 when Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota. Christian Watson has immediately returned as a legitimate No. 1 option, Matthew Golden has 153 receiving yards through two games, and Tucker Kraft remains heavily involved. With Jayden Reed expected to miss time, Love’s targets should become even more concentrated around the best weapons in this offense.
The matchup is where I become considerably more confident starting him. Atlanta placed A.J. Terrell on injured reserve with a groin injury, leaving Mike Hughes and C.J. Henderson as its primary outside corners. Henderson allowed 45 receiving yards and two touchdowns in coverage after Terrell went down against Carolina, while Hughes allowed 70 yards and another score. Love doesn’t need another 380-yard performance to give us a strong fantasy day when Green Bay has this many favorable individual matchups and multiple legitimate touchdown threats. I’m treating him as a QB1 Thursday night.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Drake London has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments through two weeks, but I’m willing to go right back to him with Michael Penix Jr. returning. London has only six receptions for 80 yards so far, but we already saw how heavily Penix was willing to feature him last season. London commanded 112 targets despite appearing in only 12 games, and one of their biggest performances together came against New England when Penix targeted him 14 times and London finished with nine receptions for 118 yards and three touchdowns. Atlanta’s quarterback situation has made it almost impossible for this passing game to establish any consistency through two games, and getting Penix back gives London a much better chance to return to the type of volume we saw last season.
Green Bay isn’t an easy matchup, so I’m not expecting London to suddenly explode for another 100-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. The argument is that his target ceiling changes considerably with Penix under center. Atlanta has scored only 16 points and hasn’t run an offensive play in the red zone through two games, so getting the ball to its best players has to become the priority. Bijan Robinson will remain heavily involved, but London is still the clear receiver I’m betting on if this passing game finally gets moving. Penix doesn’t have to be spectacular for London to command eight-plus targets and return WR2 value. After two disappointing weeks, I’m willing to trust the talent and his established connection with Penix.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
Tucker Kraft was quiet against the Jets with only two receptions for 15 yards, but nothing about his underlying role makes me want to move away from him. Kraft played virtually every offensive snap in Week 2 after catching three passes for 65 yards in the opener. That’s exactly the type of playing time I want from a fantasy tight end, especially in an offense where Jayden Reed’s injury suddenly removes another established target from the passing game.
I’m much more interested in the role than one disappointing box score. Green Bay should be able to attack Atlanta’s depleted secondary, and Watson and Golden stretching the field can create opportunities for Kraft underneath and over the middle. The tight end position isn’t deep enough for me to bench a player who essentially never leaves the field and is attached to Jordan Love in a favorable matchup. I’m going right back to Kraft as a TE1 Thursday night.
Sit ‘Em
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
We’re two games into another season, and I’m already having a difficult time trusting Kyle Pitts in fantasy lineups. Pitts failed to catch his only target in Week 1 and followed it with just one reception for 15 yards on three targets against Carolina. Atlanta’s coaching staff has talked about needing to get Pitts more involved, but until we actually see that translate into routes and targets that matter for fantasy, I’m not starting him simply because the offense is changing quarterbacks.
Penix returning could eventually help Pitts, but I’m not assuming everything immediately gets fixed Thursday night. This will be Penix’s first game action since tearing his ACL last November, and Drake London and Bijan Robinson remain the two players I expect Atlanta to prioritize. Pitts has four targets and one reception through two games. At a position where opportunities are already difficult to predict, that’s simply not enough for me to trust him in Week 3.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
I still like MarShawn Lloyd’s talent, but Green Bay’s backfield has become too difficult to project for me to confidently start him. Lloyd opened the season with 13 carries for 37 yards against Minnesota, but his role shrank considerably in Week 2. He finished with six carries for 20 yards and caught two passes for six yards and a touchdown while playing only 16 offensive snaps. Chris Brooks led the backfield with 27 snaps, while Kaleb Johnson also played 16. Lloyd’s touchdown gave fantasy managers a usable result, but the playing-time distribution tells a much different story.
That’s exactly the type of production I don’t want to rely on every week. Lloyd also lost a fourth-quarter fumble, and we’re now dealing with a legitimate three-man committee rather than a backfield where one player has clearly replaced Josh Jacobs. Brooks has led this group in playing time, while Johnson has also earned meaningful rushing work. Lloyd could eventually emerge as Green Bay’s most valuable fantasy option, but right now we don’t have evidence that the Packers are prepared to give him that role. Until the backfield becomes more concentrated, Lloyd is a touchdown-dependent flex I’d rather keep on my bench.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
I’m happy Michael Penix Jr. is returning because it should improve the fantasy outlook for Drake London and potentially the entire Atlanta offense. That doesn’t mean I’m putting Penix himself into my starting lineup. This will be his first regular-season action since tearing his ACL last November, and he’s being thrown directly into a road game at Lambeau Field on a short week. Atlanta has scored only 16 total points through two games and is the only offense in football that has yet to run an offensive play in the red zone, so we’re asking Penix to immediately fix one of the NFL’s least productive offenses.
Penix has been back practicing for roughly three weeks and was a full participant on Atlanta’s estimated Monday injury report, so I’m not necessarily worried that he’ll be severely limited. The problem is that we don’t know how quickly he’ll regain his timing, how willing he’ll be to create outside the pocket or whether Atlanta’s offense can suddenly generate enough scoring opportunities to give him a useful fantasy ceiling. In superflex leagues, the quarterback volume can still make him playable. In normal one-QB formats, there are too many safer options for me to take that risk Thursday night.
On the Fence
Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
Matthew Golden is the player I’m going back and forth on the most Thursday night. He opened the season with six receptions for 95 yards before catching four of six targets for a team-high 58 yards against the Jets, giving him 153 receiving yards through his first two games. More importantly, his playing time has been excellent. Golden was on the field for nearly every Jordan Love dropback in Week 2, and Jayden Reed’s injury should further secure his place alongside Christian Watson in Green Bay’s primary receiver sets.
There’s also plenty to like about the matchup with A.J. Terrell unavailable. The concern is target concentration. Watson drew 11 targets last week and remains Green Bay’s clear top receiving option, while Tucker Kraft is still heavily involved and this offense doesn’t necessarily need Love to throw 40-plus times to win. That leaves Golden in an interesting spot where I love the talent, role and matchup but don’t think he’s quite reached automatic-start territory. If I’m choosing between Golden and another legitimate WR2, I can understand keeping him on the bench. If injuries have pushed you deeper into your roster, I’m comfortable starting him as a WR3/flex with legitimate big-play upside.
