August is approaching, and that means fantasy football drafts are in full swing! Here is my mock draft for those of you who get stuck selecting from the middle of the draft.
I was selecting at pick 7 in this mock. I believe picks 6-8 are the toughest spots to draft this year; you aren’t able to get the undisputed top 5 of Bijan, Gibbs, Puka, Chase, or JSN, but if you let the board fall to you, you can still walk away optimistic with your drafts!
Pick 1.7: CeeDee Lamb
If I can’t grab Bijan or Gibbs, I’m not taking RB in the first unless there’s value on the turn for me to grab two. That said, the safest options here are Lamb and St. Brown. While St. Brown is more consistent year over year, Lamb is in an extremely pass-heavy offense that is hard to pass up in PPR format. I like Lamb bouncing back this year after missing time, and he will certainly have more red-zone production this year.
Pick 2.6: Malik Nabers
To clarify, I draft for a high ceiling, not a safe floor. Malik Nabers is a clear round 1 talent; I’d argue WR5 overall, but he’s falling because he likely misses some time. If he only misses 1-4 games, as I expect, this is an absolute steal of a pick. However, if he misses about half the season, your later-round WRs need to have the potential to hold down the fort in his absence. I don’t care about being the #1 seed in my leagues; I care about having the best roster in weeks 15-17.
Pick 3.7: Josh Allen
I have been a strong advocate of fading QBs this season. With guys like Jaxon Dart, Dak Prescott, and Bo Nix being on the board late, the value is typically there. With that being said, Josh Allen is an outlier; he has been QB1 or QB2 over the last 6 seasons and can score upwards of 50 more points than the next best QB. That’s enough of a difference for me to continue to fade RBs.
Note: If you don’t like QB, regardless of Allen being there in the mid 3rd, Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving were available, allowing you to fade QB.
Pick 4.6: Emeka Egbuka
As I continue fading RB, Emeka Egbuka is just “my guy”; we all have a handful of them each year. With Mike Evans gone and Chris Godwin aging, Egbuka is poised to take on the WR1 role after he displayed top-10-level talent early during his rookie campaign. If Egbuka can be a top-15 WR, it’s worth fading RB as I take him as the 20th WR off the board in this mock.
Pick 5.7: D’Andre Swift
These tier 3 RBs have more value to me than many of the tier 3 WRs as they’re either in great roles or just undervalued overall. D’Andre Swift is coming off an RB15 season in a Ben Johnson offense, and Coach Johnson recently doubled down on Swift being an integral part of the Bears’ offense. I draft him as the RB24 while in 6 seasons, Swift has never produced outside of the top 21, a clear sign he will outperform his ADP.
Pick 6.6: Chuba Hubbard
Rico Dowdle is gone, and I have real hope that Chuba Hubbard returns to his 2024 self. In 2024, Hubbard had a career year that saw him finish as RB14. That is most likely his ceiling, as I can’t envision him ever eclipsing that top-10 mark. Even if he plays at 75% of that, it’s worth the RB26 value I drafted him at as he’s got the backfield to himself.
Note: If you still want to fade QB despite Josh Allen falling, Jacobs/Bucky would be your RB1 and Swift RB2, so instead of Chuba, you could target one of the rookie WRs, Makai Lemon or Jordan Tyson, in this range!
Pick 7.7: Cortland Sutton
The Denver offense should see a big improvement, especially in the beginning of the year while Dobbins is healthy, Sutton moving back into his WR2 role, while Jaylen Waddles’ deep threat ability forces defensive coordinators to focus more on him, will only allow Cortland Sutton to thrive as the number 2 option.
Pick 8.6: J.K. Dobbins
Sticking with the Denver offense, J.K. Dobbins will be my first bench piece in this mock, and while healthy, I can comfortably slot him into my flex position while Malik Nabers finishes recovering from injury. It’s important that if you go for Nabers or any other player who’s expected to miss time, you go for high-upside guys early in the season. Historically, Dobbins will be out by week 10, and Nabers should be back by midseason at the latest.
Pick 9.7: George Kittle
Travis Kelce was taken the pick prior; however, like Kelce, George Kittle continues to be faded as fantasy owners expect regression to hit one of the years. A healthy Kittle is a top 5 TE; in fact, he was TE13 last season while only appearing in 11 games. In the previous four seasons before that, Kittle was inside the top 5 in all of them. I get him as TE12 off the board.
Pick 10.6: Isaiah Likely
With my starting lineup being set, including one bench slot, the rest of your bench should be taken swings for the fences at guys you believe in, or just guys that will have a clear production increase this season, while their ADP reflects. Likely is another one of “my guys.” In games that Mark Andrews was out, Isaiah Likely filled in and showed flashes of what an Elite TE he can be. He joins Harbaugh in New York with a promising young QB and Nabers coming back, Likely could be poised for a breakout season.
Pick 11.7: Josh Downs
I’m not a Josh Downs guy, but with Michael Pittman found and defenses reevaluating how to shut down the serious threat of Alec Pierce, Downs, like Cortland Sutton, could benefit greatly from his new role as WR2.
Note: If you faded QB, you can go Baker Mayfield here, or if you’re not high on Likely, you could go Bo Nix the round prior. Nix would be a stronger starter week-to-week, but Likely is great to have in the event Kittle misses time again.
Pick 12.6: KC Concepcion
One of my favorite picks this year is rookie WR KC Concepcion. Every year, one or two rookie wideouts absolutely demolish their ADP. This season, I am certain it will be Titans WR Carnell Tate and Browns WR KC Concepcion. He will be the clear number 1 receiver in Cleveland, and if they start Watson, who historically doesn’t throw to TEs, that’ll only bolster Concepcion’s stock.
Pick 13.7: Alvin Kamara
Don’t have a backup QB, as Josh Allen is one of the healthiest QBs in the NFL, *Knock on wood*, so I can play the waiver in his bye week. Despite the Saints adding Etienne, they recently gave Kamara a new contract so he’s going to still have a role in that offense and let’s face it, at pick 151 overall in a round that saw Jonah Coleman, Emmet Johnson, and Tyjae Spears go, Kamara is the best available to be my RB4 and fill in for just one game or two if multiple players had the same bye weeks.
Recap
We were able to get the best QB in fantasy in Josh Allen, drafted three wide receivers that have WR1 upside, snagged two TEs, Kittle with the proven track record, and Likely, who has a high ceiling. RB is where the weakness lies, but that’s what happens at any position you fade. It’s important to target RBs whose ADPs are lower than where they finished historically, hence why I snagged Swift. Dobbins is likely my RB2 if Chuba doesn’t return to his 2024 self, but if he does and Dobbins can stay healthy, you can always slot Dobbins in over Sutton in the slot on a week-to-week basis.
Check out all of my previous articles, along with future rookie deep dives, available here: Rookie Deep Dives, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss some sleepers you need to add to your draft board if you haven’t already.
