Every week in fantasy football, we hear the same names when it comes to must-start players. But matchups aren’t always won by starting the obvious options every week; they’re won by identifying players whose matchups, opportunities, and potential workloads give them a chance to outperform their projections.
This week, I’m looking beyond the usual superstar names and targeting four players who could provide sneaky value at their respective positions: Kirk Cousins, Braelon Allen, Germie Bernard, and Dalton Kincaid. Whether it’s taking advantage of a favorable matchup, betting on increased usage, or identifying a player who could surprise, these are the under-the-radar starts I’m keeping an eye on.
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Start Kirk Cousins
The matchup is too good to ignore. Cousins is coming off a disappointing performance against the New England Patriots, but I’m willing to look past last week’s results because of the matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Through five games, Cousins has thrown for 1,269 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game; he’s shocked the entire fantasy community.
The biggest reason I like Cousins this week is the Bills’ pass defense. Buffalo has ranked among the league’s most advantageous defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 27th in defensive DVOA against the pass. That creates a legitimate opportunity for Cousins to bounce back. He’s averaging 34.4 pass attempts per game, so the volume is there for a big fantasy performance, and the Raiders are going to have to keep up with the Bills offense.
If Buffalo forces the Raiders to keep throwing to stay competitive, Cousins could be in line for a high-volume week. I’m not calling him an every-week must-start, but if you’re dealing with bye weeks or need a streaming quarterback, Cousins is a name I’d seriously consider this week and could finish as a QB1.
Start Braelon Allen
With expecting Breece Hall to miss again, Braelon Allen’s opportunity is starting to show up. Allen is coming off his best performance of the season, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against Cleveland. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and added four targets in the passing game. He was the clear bell cow.
That’s the type of workload that gets my attention for this week if you need a solid RB2. Allen had just 19 carries combined across his first three games when Hall was playing, but he handled 24 by himself last week. If he continues to receive that kind of volume, he has a path to another productive outing. The matchup against New England is fairly neutral, with the Patriots allowing an estimated 23.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs compared with a 21.4-point league average.
The potential difference-maker is the Jets’ backfield situation. Breece Hall has been listed as doubtful in the available projections, which will leave Allen with an even larger workload again. I’m buying the opportunity and volume here. Allen has already shown he can handle a heavy rushing workload, and if he gets another 20-plus carries, he has a solid chance to return RB2 value. Monitor Hall’s official injury status before kickoff, but Allen is one of my favorite volume-based starts this week.
Start Germie Bernard
A breakout opportunity could be developing. Bernard is a rookie worth watching after his best NFL performance to date. Against Indianapolis, he recorded six catches for 80 yards on nine targets, adding a four-yard rushing attempt too. What I like most is the increased involvement.
Bernard ran a route on 78.8% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks last week and earned a 25.8% target share. Those are encouraging numbers for a rookie receiver looking to establish himself in the offense.
There is a matchup concern, though. Tampa Bay uses single-high coverage at a high rate, and Bernard’s efficiency has been lower against that coverage structure. The Buccaneers have also been relatively effective against slot receivers, so this isn’t necessarily a matchup I’d label as easy.
So why am I interested? Opportunity matters, especially when a receiver is earning targets rather than relying on one big play. Michael Pittman is on IR, and Roman Wilson is missing this week and expected to miss a few. This is Bernard’s moment to gain Rodgers’ trust, and if he does, we could see him as the Steelers WR2 ROS.
I’d view him as a deeper-league flex with upside, rather than a player I’d automatically put into every lineup. If his target volume carries over from last week, he could outperform his usual fantasy expectations.
Start Dalton Kincaid
I see a bounce back happening after two dud weeks. Don’t forget how high his ceiling is.
Kincaid has been frustrating over the past few weeks, but his early-season production showed just how much upside he brings. He opened the year with 12 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets across his first two games.
Since then, his production has fallen off dramatically. Over his last three games, Kincaid has totaled just four catches for 52 yards on seven targets. That lack of involvement is a legitimate concern, and even more concerning, WR1 D.J. Moore has been absent, but it also makes this a good week to look for a bounce-back opportunity.
The matchup against Las Vegas gives me a reason to stay optimistic. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most receiving fantasy points per game to tight ends, along with the third-most receiving touchdowns to the position.
There is also an encouraging usage indicator: Kincaid ran a route on 82% of Buffalo’s dropbacks last week, his highest rate of the season, even though he finished with only one catch for seven yards.
That tells me he is still getting opportunities to be involved in the passing game; Josh Allen just hasn’t looked his way. If Buffalo makes a concerted effort to get him the ball, the talent and matchup are there for a big week, especially if D.J. Moore misses again.
I’m starting Kincaid as a bounce-back TE1 candidate. The recent production isn’t pretty, but tight end is a position where upside matters, and this matchup gives him a chance for a bounce back.
Final Thoughts on Under-the-Radar Starts
These guys aren’t necessarily the safest starts on the board, and that’s exactly the point. Cousins has a favorable passing matchup, Allen could get a big workload again, Bernard is coming off a promising target-volume spike, and Kincaid has a chance to bounce back against a favorable defense.
Fantasy football is about finding value before everyone else catches on. These are the less-obvious names I’m targeting this week. Let’s win our Week 6 matchups.
