Every year, we all try our best to draft players who turn into home-run hitters; last year it was Jaxon Smith-Njigba who likely won you your league. Here are five players who I guarantee will outperform their current ADP.
Note: These ADPs are from Sleeper, with standard PPR scoring, single QB rosters.
QB Bo Nix | Denver Broncos
ADP: 119 (QB15)
Bo Nix is a talented young Quarterback coached by a future Hall of Fame Head Coach in Sean Payton. Last year, I was wary of drafting Nix because sophomore slumps have been a notable issue in recent years. Nix followed up his QB7 rookie season with yet another QB7 season last year.
He’s young, but he checks off the consistency box on players I like to target. Has he gained any meaningful weapons? The Denver Broncos acquired one of the NFL’s top deep threats in Jaylen Waddle, who is coming off a respectable 900-yard season and has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark three times in his career thus far, and he’s only 27. Lastly, the ankle injury- should you be concerned? Absolutely not. Nix is good to go in Week 1, and he’s not an RB or a WR; he will be fine and continue playing at a high level without losing a step.
During Sean Paytons time as a Head Coach since 2006, granted he had one of the greatest QBs of all time in Drew Brees, he’s never had a QB finishing worse than QB16 in fantasy and that was a “washed” Russell Wilson season where he missed a couple games and Nix is far better and has a better offense than what Wilson did towards the end of his career. So Nix finishes at minimum QB12, but likely in the top 10 once again.
RB Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 31 (RB16)
7th, 7th, and 9th. That’s where Kyren Williams has finished in each of the past 3 seasons in fantasy football. This and the mind-blowing fact that he has consistently reached 13 or more touchdowns in each of those seasons is already enough to justify him needing to go much higher than his current
ADP. Kyren remains the feature back in one of the NFL’s premier offenses. There is absolutely no reason to believe Williams will finish outside the top 10. With no real major changes to the Rams’ offense, Davante Adams is another year older, and regression will be coming for him soon, which simply means more volume for Williams, but that’s not why I’m counting on Williams to get more volume.
The Los Angeles Rams made an historical move this offseason, trading for reigning DPOY Myles Garrett and also adding an elite corner in Trent McDuffie to that defense. Williams and the Rams will likely be running the ball much more late in games this season, and that’s where the potential of increase volume comes from.
RB De’Andre Swift | Chicago Bears
ADP: 64 (RB25)
For a guy who’s never finished worse than RB21 and is coming off a career high RB15 season, with an offensive minded coach that everyone loves, you would think De’Andre Swift would be going much, much higher. Breece Hall for instance, finished as RB16 in 2024 and RB19 in 2025 yet he’s doing 32 picks earlier than Swift!
Swift will be the key to many teams making the playoffs as their RB2. Ben Johnson has always gotten the most out of his RBs and I think that continues with Swift being a top 20 RB, will he be top 15 again? I don’t want to make that promise, but he has consistently been in the top 20 throughout his career.
Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 45 (WR21)
Emeka Egbuka is coming off a rollercoaster rookie season that saw him display top 5 overall potential before coming back down to Earth. Egbuka was in a peculiar role in Tampa’s offense, as at one point it was just him and Evans, then just him, then him and Godwin, then him, Evans, and Godwin in an ever-rotating door of injuries that happened to the Buccaneers’ room last season, so Egbuka never really got to remain in one role.
As the 2026 season approaches, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are without Mike Evans who left in free agency, have a questionable aging WR who I don’t expect to be much of a threat to Egbukas target share as when Chris Godwin came back from injury he simply didn’t look the same but he did have an entire offseason to fully heal and possibly get back to being a phenomenal WR2. Even if Godwin does this, it never stopped Evans from being a top 15 WR year in and year out, and Egbuka has the potential to follow suit.
Carnell Tate | Tennessee Titans
ADP: 62 (WR28)
Carnell Tate immediately becomes the WR1 in a developing offense where Cam Ward heads into year two after a promising end to his rookie campaign, but that’s not the best part. Titans hired a new offensive coordinator during the offseason by the name of Brian Daboll, who, during his time as Head Coach of the New York Giants, elevated Jaxon Dart and made Malik Nabers an absolute target machine.
Daboll historically likes focusing on one WR in the passing game; once Nabers went down, Wan’Dale Robinson, who also joined Tennessee this offseason, became the target machine in New York. I don’t know if Tate can replicate Nabers’ 2024 rookie season, where Nabers finished as WR6 in PPR while obtaining 170 targets, but if Tate can put up 75% of Nabers’ stat line, he will still put up better numbers than his current projection. This, plus the fact that every single year one or two rookies absolutely blow away their ADP, this year I believe those rookies will be Carnell Tate and KC Concepcion.
Honorable Mention
Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 109 (TE14)
I just had to include Travis Kelce somewhere on here, as the aging TE will be a whopping 37 years old this season. What’s incredible is that as Kelce gets older, he still hasn’t finished outside the top 5 among TEs in the last decade. Despite his age, Kelce continues to produce, and while I expect some regression to limit the future Hall of Famer, I think he easily finishes inside the top 10.
Recap
Bo Nix is just one of the many QBs you can target around round 12, and he provides the best value down the board among the QBs that go in the later rounds. Kyren Williams and De’Andre Swift are two running backs that have maintained consistency and will continue to do so.
Emeka Egbuka has been given the keys to be the next WR1 in Tampa Bay for the next decade, like Mike Evans before him. Carnell Tate is poised to be the rookie WR that outperforms his ADP, something we continually see year over year. Lastly, Travis Kelce, the aging TE that has no quit in him and will again be a top 10 TE this season.
I personally guarantee these players will finish at least five spots higher than their positional ADP, barring injury, of course.
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