It has been four years since I started making my own spreadsheet for The DFS Must Starts.
I have found more success using it more than I thought, and it’s a thing in process before the season and during the season.
But the goal remains the same – searching for that one big payday!
Let’s get into this week’s top plays!
QB DFS Must Starts
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia ($6,600, 17.5 percent rostered)
Hurts is my first play with a new wrinkle I added to my spreadsheet, and his matchup is what QBs love to see this season – the Dallas defense.
I will admit the Cowboys have made some strides on defense recently, with Quinnen Williams added to the defensive front at the trade deadline. And they have played more zone defense after giving up 298 or more yards passing in Weeks 2-4.
But Hurts enjoys playing against his NFC East Division foe as he has accounted for two or more TDs in 5 of the Eagles’ last 6 matchups against Dallas.
And despite only combining for 54 yards receiving, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 16 targets in last week’s win against Detroit.
That involvement should pay dividends vs. the Cowboys, who give up 293.3 yards passing at home this year.
Chalky Play: Drake Maye, New England ($6,900, 12.2 percent rostered)
Value Play: Jacoby Brissett, Arizona ($5,300, 7 percent rostered)
RB Must Starts
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit ($8,300, 26.7 percent rostered)
Gibbs and the Lions offense have a get-right game against the NY Giants.
Detroit comes into the game with a team total above 30 points, and Gibbs feasted the last time the Lions played a weak defense.
Gibbs finished with 41.2 DraftKings points in Detroit’s road win against Washington, and the Giants give up the second-most DK points to RBs this season at 27.2 points a game.
Gibbs’s only concern for a big game will be how many touches David Montgomery receives.
Chalky Play: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta ($8,500, 18.9 percent rostered)
Value Play: Zach Charbonnet, Seattle ($4,900, 5.3 percent rostered)
WR DFS Must Starts
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia ($5,600, 16.4 percent rostered)
I will be double-stacking Smith with Brown ($5,900, 12.9 percent rostered) in at least 2 lineups, but Smith is the better play vs. Dallas zone scheme secondary.
According to PFF, Smith ranks 12th in yards per route run vs. zone, and Dallas uses zone coverage the 8th most in the NFL this season.
Plus, Smith has been good for Hurts’ passing rating this season. He ranks 14th for passer ratings when targeted.
Chalky Play: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit ($8,000, 18.3 percent rostered)
Value Play: Michael Wilson, Arizona ($4,800, 13.4 percent rostered)
TE DFS Must Starts
Trey McBride, Arizona ($6,800, 7.3 percent rostered)
McBride has basically become a WR in the TE position – the new Travis Kelce ($5,000, 4.5 percent rostered).
Since Brissett has taken over the starting QB job in Arizona, McBride has benefited by seeing 11.4 targets a game since Week 6. That is up more than 3 targets when Kyler Murray was the starter.
And he’s finding the end zone, something that plagued him early in his career. He has rattled off 6 TDs in the last five games and gets a nice matchup against Jacksonville this week.
The Jaguars give up the second-most DK points to TEs this season, allowing 17.8 points a game.
High-Price Play: Kelce
Value Play: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans ($4,000, 5.1 percent rostered)
DST Plays
New Orleans ($2.500, 30.8 percent rostered), home against Atlanta
Detroit ($3,700, 4.6 percent rostered,) home against NY Giants
Seattle ($4,000, 2.4 percent rostered) at Tennessee
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