Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings: BIGGEST Risers & Fallers After Week 4

Week 4 gave us our first full month of data, and that’s usually when I start putting considerably more weight into what we’re seeing underneath the box scores. One big performance can still be misleading, but four weeks of changing snap shares, target distributions, backfield usage, and efficiency gives us a much better idea of which early-season trends are actually becoming sustainable. Here are the biggest risers and fallers in my updated fantasy football rest-of-season rankings heading into Week 5.

Full Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings

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Rankings Risers

Drake Maye

Drake Maye needed Week 4 badly, and what we got against Buffalo was considerably closer to the quarterback I expected entering the season. Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns in New England’s 29-26 win while adding another 54 yards on the ground. That’s a massive turnaround after entering the week with only one passing touchdown and six interceptions through his first three games. More importantly for fantasy, Maye continues giving us something most quarterbacks can’t: production with his legs. He now has 136 rushing yards through four games, including 47 in Week 1 and 54 in Week 4.

I’m not erasing the first three weeks because of one game. The turnovers were legitimately concerning, and New England’s offensive environment still isn’t one I’m treating like an elite passing offense. What changes for me is that we finally saw Maye overcome that environment against one of the better teams he’ll face. Maye doesn’t need to throw three touchdowns every week to work in fantasy because the rushing production gives him another path toward points when the passing production isn’t there. After dropping him significantly following Week 3, I’m moving him back toward the QB1 conversation. Week 4 was the first indication that the ceiling we liked entering the season hasn’t disappeared.

Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren has taken control of Pittsburgh’s backfield, and I’m done treating him like someone who needs extreme efficiency to overcome limited volume. Warren followed his 176-total-yard performance against Cincinnati with 17 carries for 93 yards and three receptions for 33 yards against Cleveland. Over the past two weeks, that’s 34 carries for 220 rushing yards while adding six receptions for another 82 yards. The efficiency has been outstanding all season. Warren is averaging 5.7 yards per carry through four games, and PlayerProfiler had him at 5.3 true yards per carry, 4.74 yards created per touch, and a 29.8% juke rate entering Week 4.

The workload change matters even more than the efficiency. Warren’s snap share jumped from 35.9% in Week 1 to 71.6% in Week 2 and 87.9% in Week 3, and Pittsburgh followed that by giving him 20 more opportunities against Cleveland. This isn’t the old version of Warren where we’re hoping 10 carries and four targets turn into an efficient fantasy performance. He’s getting feature-back usage while maintaining the explosive efficiency that made him so interesting in a smaller role. The one thing missing is touchdowns. Warren hasn’t scored through four games despite piling up more than 400 scrimmage yards, so there is actually room for the fantasy production to improve without his workload increasing at all. I’m moving Warren firmly into the weekly RB1/RB2 conversation because the role we’ve wanted for years is finally here.

Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson has quietly developed into one of the more dependable receiving tight ends in fantasy, and Monday night gave us even more evidence that this isn’t simply a touchdown-driven start. Johnson caught six of eight targets for 59 yards against Atlanta without finding the end zone. That’s exactly what I wanted to see because his early-season usage was already encouraging, with Johnson operating with a 13.6% target share, 17.2% first-read share and 1.73 yards per route run while also drawing six red-zone targets.

The touchdowns may have initially gotten people’s attention, but eight more targets without needing a score to produce reinforces the underlying receiving role. That’s also why I’m not overly concerned about New Orleans’ overall offensive inconsistencies. The Saints don’t need to become one of the league’s best offenses for Johnson to maintain TE1 value. He needs to remain one of Tyler Shough’s preferred options in the middle of the field and around the end zone. Tight end gets thin extremely quickly once we move beyond the elite options, and Johnson’s combination of route involvement, red-zone usage, and target earnings gives him more ways to produce than most players in that range. I’m moving him up because this increasingly looks like a real season-long role rather than an early touchdown spike.

Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan’s Week 4 breakout was the type of performance that forces a major rest-of-season adjustment. McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, turning what had already been an encouraging start into one of the biggest receiver performances of the season. Fourteen receptions obviously aren’t something I’m projecting every week, but that’s also not the takeaway. A rookie receiver doesn’t accidentally command that level of involvement. McMillan had already posted five catches for 75 yards in Week 1 and five for 101 in Week 2 before the explosion Sunday.

The development of Carolina’s passing offense makes me even more comfortable moving him aggressively. This offense has shown considerably more ability to sustain fantasy production than I expected entering the season, which means McMillan doesn’t have to overcome a completely dysfunctional environment every week. Carolina can generate enough passing volume and scoring opportunities to support a high-end fantasy receiver, and McMillan has clearly shown he’s capable of commanding a massive portion of those opportunities. There will obviously be quieter rookie weeks, but after a 14/192/2 performance on top of the target-earning ability we already saw through September, I’m moving McMillan firmly upward in my WR rankings. The WR1 ceiling is becoming considerably easier to see.

Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate is one of the biggest risers in my rankings because Week 4 was the first time the production fully caught up to a role that had already been expanding. Tate caught nine of 12 targets for 145 yards against Baltimore after seeing six targets in Week 1, five in Week 2, and nine in Week 3. That’s a progression of 6 → 5 → 9 → 12 targets, and he’s now drawn 32 through four games. He did fumble twice and lost one against Baltimore, which obviously needs to be cleaned up, but I’m considerably more interested in Tennessee continuing to put the football in his hands.

That’s the important distinction with Tate. This wasn’t a player buried behind Calvin Ridley who suddenly earned a role because of one breakout performance. Tate had already played 84% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps through three weeks compared with 52% for Ridley. The opportunity was there; the Titans’ dysfunctional offense simply wasn’t converting enough of it into fantasy production. Week 4 was the first time the box score finally reflected the role. Tennessee being 0-4 isn’t necessarily bad for Tate either. If he’s playing this many snaps and the Titans continually find themselves trailing, negative game scripts should create plenty of passing opportunities. Tate has moved from an upside stash into my weekly flex conversation, and the steadily increasing target volume gives him room to climb even higher.

Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson’s rise isn’t based on one game anymore. It’s based on Arizona repeatedly showing us that he’s going to be a major part of this passing offense. Wilson entered Week 4 with a 25.6% target share, five red-zone targets, three deep targets, and a team-leading 35.1% first-read share. Then he caught seven of 13 targets for 95 yards against the Giants. The most important number for me remains the volume: Wilson has now commanded 30 targets over the past two weeks. We can argue about exactly where he belongs relative to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but a receiver seeing this many opportunities simply can’t remain where he was in my rankings a few weeks ago.

The quality of those opportunities gives him more ceiling than a typical volume-based flex receiver. Wilson isn’t simply collecting low-value underneath targets. Arizona has been willing to use him downfield and in the red zone, while his first-read involvement shows that a meaningful portion of the volume is designed around getting him the football rather than coming from broken plays or checkdowns. Jacoby Brissett has also shown a clear willingness to feed him, which matters considerably for as long as this quarterback situation remains intact. I’m still not moving Wilson ahead of Arizona’s other primary receiving options based on two weeks, but that’s not necessary for him to become a major riser. Thirty targets in two games changes the conversation. Wilson has gone from a volatile flex to someone I’m increasingly comfortable treating as a weekly WR2/flex with legitimate ceiling.

Fallers

Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton continues falling because the feature-back role we hoped would develop is moving in the opposite direction. Hampton’s designed carry share fell from 75% in Week 1 to 57.7% by Week 3, while his route share declined from 28.6% to only 15.8%. Week 4 didn’t reverse the trend. He handled only nine carries against Seattle, finishing with 45 rushing yards and a touchdown while catching two passes for eight yards. The efficiency was actually fine at five yards per carry, but nine rushing attempts from a player we drafted hoping for 18-to-20-touch workloads is the much bigger issue.

The concern is that Los Angeles is increasingly comfortable using multiple backs. Keaton Mitchell has brought explosiveness to the backfield, while Kimani Vidal has also remained involved. Hampton has only four receptions through four games, and that becomes considerably more concerning when it’s paired with a route share that’s been declining every week. He’s losing the passing-down involvement that could otherwise protect his fantasy floor when the carries disappear. I’m still not questioning Hampton’s talent; we’ve already seen flashes of what he can do with volume. I’m questioning the fantasy situation. Until this three-man rotation starts moving back toward Hampton, I can’t value him like the potential RB1 I hoped he would become. He’s settling into much more volatile RB2 territory.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts remains a fantasy QB1, but I’m moving him further down within that tier because Philadelphia’s passing offense is becoming impossible to ignore. Hurts completed only 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards against the Rams in Week 4. He threw two touchdowns, which saved the fantasy result, but Philadelphia finished with only 172 total yards and went 0-for-12 on third down. That comes one week after Hurts managed only 153 passing yards against Chicago. Across the past two games, we’re talking about 246 passing yards combined. That’s less than several quarterbacks are producing in one afternoon.

The rushing production and goal-line role are why I’m not panicking. Hurts has one of the best fantasy cheat codes at quarterback when Philadelphia gets near the end zone, and that will continue creating spike weeks even when the passing numbers disappoint. The issue is that the margin for error is becoming much smaller. Philadelphia is dealing with significant injuries around Hurts, including Saquon Barkley’s hamstring and problems along the offensive line, and the offense has struggled to generate consistent explosive production. The upcoming schedule also isn’t enough for me to assume everything immediately fixes itself, especially with Jacksonville next in London. I’m still starting Hurts every week, but the quarterbacks producing significantly more total yardage have started separating from him. He’s falling within the QB1 tier rather than falling out of it.

David Montgomery

David Montgomery’s Week 1 workload is looking more like an outlier every Sunday. After opening the season with 20 carries for 60 yards and two rushing touchdowns while adding three receptions for 19 yards and another score, Montgomery has handled only 27 carries over the past three games. He finished Week 4 with 10 carries for 24 yards while catching one pass for 19 yards, giving him just 67 rushing yards on 27 attempts since the opener. That’s 2.48 yards per carry over the past three weeks. PlayerProfiler had Montgomery at only 2.8 yards per carry for the season entering Week 4 with a 54% snap share, 59.5% opportunity share and only one explosive play.

Woody Marks is the bigger reason I’m continuing to move Montgomery down. Week 4 brought the split even closer, with Montgomery playing 31 offensive snaps compared with 24 for Marks, a 56%-44% split. That’s particularly concerning because touchdown equity is a huge part of Montgomery’s fantasy profile, and Marks has already shown he can take some of those valuable opportunities. If Montgomery isn’t dominating the goal-line work, we’re left with an inefficient runner sharing a backfield without a major receiving role. He can still score enough touchdowns to produce useful weeks, but I don’t want to value a running back based almost entirely on predicting those touchdowns. He’s becoming a touchdown-dependent flex rather than the dependable RB2 we hoped we were getting after Week 1.

Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka remains a player I like long term, but his immediate fantasy environment has deteriorated enough that I have to move him down. Egbuka caught only two of four targets for 13 yards against Green Bay in Week 4, giving him 15 receptions for 154 yards and one touchdown through four games. He hasn’t exceeded 63 receiving yards in any game and has now been held below 20 yards twice. The encouraging part remains that he drew nine targets in Week 3 and had consistently been involved with Baker Mayfield. The problem is that we’re no longer evaluating the same offense.

Mayfield’s thumb injury has handed the offense to Jalon Daniels, and Week 4 gave us our first look at what that means for Egbuka. Daniels can create with his legs, but Tampa Bay isn’t suddenly going to ask a rookie quarterback to operate exactly the same passing offense Mayfield was running. Egbuka’s four targets against Green Bay were his lowest total of the season, and that’s enough for me to become more cautious until we see how this target distribution settles. Tampa Bay gets Dallas, Pittsburgh and Carolina over its next three games, so the schedule isn’t disastrous, but quarterback uncertainty can overwhelm a favorable receiver matchup quickly. I’m not selling Egbuka for nothing because the talent and long-term opportunity remain attractive. I’m lowering his rest-of-season floor until Daniels proves he can consistently support him.

Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo is moving down because the workload hasn’t translated into enough efficiency, and Week 4 gave us another reason to question how secure the backfield actually is. Skattebo handled 18 carries for 58 yards and caught one pass for eight yards against Arizona, bringing him to 68 carries for 235 yards through four games. That’s only 3.46 yards per carry. His pre-Week 4 PlayerProfiler profile showed a 63.5% snap share and 65.9% opportunity share, so volume hasn’t been the primary problem. He was also producing only 0.63 fantasy points per opportunity and sitting 2.73 points per game below his expected fantasy output.

The backfield usage against Arizona makes this more concerning than simply blaming the offensive line. Najee Harris remained meaningfully involved before losing a fourth-quarter fumble, and Skattebo received the final seven touches after that mistake. That’s not the same thing as New York entering the game determined to feature Skattebo from start to finish. The Giants are showing they’re willing to use another back, while Skattebo has now had four games to turn his workload into efficient rushing production and is still sitting below 3.5 yards per carry. The receiving work keeps his floor from completely disappearing, but poor efficiency combined with a mediocre offense and legitimate competition for touches is enough for me to move him down within the RB2 range. I still want Skattebo rostered and involved in lineups. I’m simply less confident that this workload carries the upside I originally expected.

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid might be the most difficult faller on this list because his first two weeks were legitimately impressive. He opened the season with 12 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown, averaging 18.8 yards per reception and giving us exactly the type of explosive receiving production we’ve been waiting to see from him. Since then, the volume has completely changed. Kincaid has been held to just three receptions for 45 yards over the past two games, including only one catch for seven yards on two targets against New England in Week 4.

I’m not pretending Kincaid suddenly became a bad player. The receiving talent is exactly why I’m not dropping him aggressively, and Buffalo clearly views him as much more than a traditional inline tight end. My concern is target stability. The Bills have enough weapons and enough ways to build the offense around Josh Allen that Kincaid doesn’t necessarily have to command seven or eight targets every week for Buffalo to function. That creates a much wider range of fantasy outcomes than the first two weeks suggested. Kincaid still has top-five tight end upside whenever the volume returns, but I’m lowering him because I’m considerably less comfortable projecting that volume on a weekly basis than I was after the first two games.

George Pickens

George Pickens is a difficult faller because the underlying opportunity isn’t actually bad. He saw 11 targets against Baltimore, and his season target share remains around 25%. That’s normally the type of usage that would make me move a receiver up rather than down. My concern is that the fantasy ceiling hasn’t consistently followed the opportunity. CeeDee Lamb remains the player Dallas’ passing game is built around, which leaves Pickens in a role where he can earn meaningful volume but still needs to convert his downfield opportunities at a high rate to produce the type of ceiling we expected entering the season.

That’s why I’m not dramatically dropping Pickens or treating him like a player whose role is collapsing. The targets are too good for that. I’m adjusting where he belongs within the WR2/WR3 range because his fantasy production can become volatile when the explosive plays don’t connect. Week 3’s increased volume was actually encouraging, and if 10-plus-target games become normal, this downgrade could disappear quickly. For now, though, I’m viewing Pickens as a more volatile weekly option than I did entering the season, rather than someone I’m automatically treating like a high-end WR2.