Super Bowl Sunday is here, and the stage is set for an epic rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. This time, the Eagles enter with a new weapon in Saquon Barkley, who has been dominant all season, adding firepower to an already explosive offense.
Mahomes’ perfect record against Vic Fangio-led defenses is worth mentioning for those hyped up on Hurts and Barkley at MVP. If you’re building your FanDuel DFS picks for the big game, here’s everything you need to know to gain an edge.
| Team | MoneyLine | Spread | Total Match Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -116 | -1.5 / -105 | O 48.5 / -110 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -102 | +1.5 / -115 | U 48.5 / -110 |
MVP – FanDuel DFS Picks
Saquon Barkley ($16,500) represents the safest cash game play at MVP, but there may be better leverage opportunities elsewhere given his projected popularity against Kansas City.
The extremely high ceiling for Barkley in single-game formats is undeniable. Across 19 games including playoffs, he’s maintained a 145.3 scrimmage yards per game average. His tournament-winning upside is evident in his eight games with 30+ FanDuel points, including two explosive performances exceeding 40 points.
Expect extremely high ownership for Barkley makes him less appealing for tournaments along with Jalen Hurt’s ability to carries away near the goal line.
Patrick Mahomes ($14,000) and Chiefs matchup against Philadelphia’s top-ranked defense (by schedule-adjusted metrics) presents a significant challenge. However, Mahomes’ history against the Eagles is noteworthy: a stellar 103.4 passer rating with 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions across two career meetings.
Even more compelling is his perfect 8-0 record against Fangio-style defenses, where he’s maintained efficiency with 10 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, achieving a passer rating of 93.9 or better in six of those matchups.
Mahomes at MVP would give way to less popular lineup construction which is great for tournament play with many lineups looking to roster Hurts and Barkley for their rushing ability.
Recent postseason performance reinforces Jalen Hurts‘ ($13,500) dual-threat ceiling. Through the playoffs, he’s accumulated 505 passing yards with 3 touchdowns through the air while adding 122 rushing yards and 4 ground scores on 23 attempts.
His NFC Championship showing highlighted this versatility, combining efficient passing (20/28 for 246 yards and a TD) with three crucial rushing touchdowns.
Contrarian MVPs
Travis Kelce’s ($12,000) playoff results show two extremes: 24.2 points in the Divisional Round followed by 2.9 points in the AFC Championship. He maintains a 24.5% target share in the playoffs and leads the Super Bowl slate with 8.3 projected targets.
The recent down game could reduce his MVP ownership, creating good tournament leverage.
Devonta Smith ($11,000) enters this Super Bowl with limited recent volume – four targets in each playoff game with a 19.4% target share.
However, his history against Kansas City shows high-level production: 13 catches for 221 yards in two regular-season games, plus 7 receptions, 100 yards with 0 TDs on 9 targets in the 2023 Super Bowl matchup with the Chiefs.
Smith gets a favorable matchup as he should be lined up against Chamarri Conner in the slot. Conner allows .36 FP per route run this season, which is the best matchup on this slate
FLEX – FanDuel DFS Picks
Xavier Worthy ($11,500) leads the team with a 26.5% target share through two playoff games. Despite a low 3.8-yard average depth-of-target, his usage near the goal line (45.5% red zone target share) and involvement in the running game create multiple paths to production.
After minimal production in early playoff rounds, AJ Brown ($12,500) bounced back with 18.6 FanDuel points in the NFC Championship. His playoff market shares remain strong: 29.0% of targets, 59.1% of air yards, and 40.0% of red zone looks. The Eagles’ run-heavy approach and the possibility of Devonta emerging to more target share for this outing could limit his ceiling.
Kareem Hunt ($10,500) maintains lead back duties despite Pacheco’s return, playing 52.7% of playoff snaps. His recent production includes touchdowns in four straight games and a season-high 17 carries in the AFC Championship.
Matching A.J. Brown’s team-high 29.0% playoff target share, Dallas Goedert ($10,000) has posted double-digit FanDuel points in two of three postseason games. The matchup favors tight end production, as Kansas City allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points to the position during the regular season.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown ($9,500) has established himself as the Chiefs’ WR2 with a 63.6% route rate and 14.3% target share in the playoffs. Brown’s 40.7% air yards share and 18.4-yard average depth-of-target make him a boom-bust option.
Both Harrison Butker ($9,000) and Jake Elliott ($9,000) seem to be solid flex FanDuel DFS picks in a 48.5-point total game. Butker appears safer, converting 84% of field goals this season and remaining perfect in playoffs. Elliott shows more volatility, missing one field goal and three extra points this postseason despite having multiple double-digit scoring games.
Emerging as Mahomes’ fourth option, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,000) led secondary receivers with a 52.9% route rate and 12% target share in the AFC Championship. His part-time role keeps his floor low, but he offers salary relief at minimum pricing when trying to fit in multiple high-priced stars.
Jahan Dotson ($7,000) has the Eagles’ fourth-highest playoff route rate (67.4%) but has seen just two targets across three games. One of those targets was a touchdown making this a dart tournament play at best. The benefit with Dotson is salary relief to fit in higher salary FanDuel DFS picks.