It is tier season, and it is time to start shaping your draft strategy. We’re taking a look at the projected Week 1 starters across the NFL and sorting them into tiers to help make sense of the chaos. From the top-elite studs, to the reliable veterans, some sleepers of my own, and to those everyone needs to stay away from, it will be covered. Here’s how the QB landscape is shaping up for your fantasy football season.
Elite Class
These quarterbacks are fantasy game-changers, capable of winning weeks single-handedly.
- Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): A fantasy phenom since seizing the starting role in Baltimore, Jackson’s unparalleled running ability makes him a cheat code. He’s been a consistent top-tier fantasy QB, and his passing game is steadily improving, adding another dimension to his already explosive skill set. Draft him early for a massive weekly edge.
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): Dubbed the “God’s gift of fantasy football,” Allen is elite at both running and passing. While no one outruns Lamar, Allen’s dual-threat mastery—combining a cannon arm with goal-line carries—makes him a top-tier QB1. He’s a huge advantage every week, often delivering monster stat lines.
- Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders): The rookie sensation burst onto the scene last year, nearly guiding the Commanders to the Super Bowl and finishing as QB5. Picture him as a hybrid of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: not quite as mobile as Lamar or as strong-armed as Allen, but still elite in both areas. His strong arm and running ability make him a fantasy threat every week.
Very Good Class
Just shy of elite, these QBs are still premium picks with high ceilings.
- Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles): Finishing as QB6 last year on the Super Bowl-winning Eagles, Hurts is a great fantasy QB but falls short of the elite tier. His mobility is more NFL-oriented—designed for safety and first downs rather than cutting back for extra yards or diving for TDs. Still, the “tush push” ensures he racks up rushing TDs (top two in rushing TDs last year), and his great team keeps him productive. He’s a safe, high-floor pick.
- Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): QB2 last year, Burrow’s arm is a fantasy ignite button. Despite the Bengals’ puzzling inconsistency as Super Bowl contenders, Burrow’s weapons—Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins—are back, making him a weekly advantage over most opponents. Even in a weird 2024 with injuries, he’s a proven top-tier QB (QB4 in 2022), so draft with confidence.
- Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs): The future GOAT disappointed some as QB11 last year, a step down from QB8 in 2023 and QB1 in 2022 (post-Super Bowl loss). Drafted alongside elite QBs like Allen and Jackson, his 2024 dip stung, but his track record screams bounce-back. Mahomes is primed to reclaim his spot among fantasy’s best, especially with Kansas City’s high-octane offense.
Exciting Good Football
These QBs deliver thrilling performances and can explode for big fantasy points.
- Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): A shocking QB3 last year, Mayfield finally found his home in Tampa. He’s a scrappy “dog” who might run over a linebacker for extra yards (though he probably shouldn’t). Surrounded by weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, and Bucky Irving in the backfield, he’s primed for continued success. Even with rookie Emeka Egbuka added, Mayfield’s a steal in later rounds.
- Bo Nix (Denver Broncos): Bursting onto the scene as QB9 last year, Nix led the Broncos to the playoffs as a rookie, silencing doubters. Sean Payton’s system fits him perfectly, and Denver continues to build around him. When the elite and very good QBs are gone, Nix is a late-round pick who’ll excite you every week.
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers): QB12 last year, Herbert’s career has been a rollercoaster—hyped up, then underwhelming, then resurgent. Jim Harbaugh’s arrival raised questions, but Herbert delivered as a starter in most leagues. Harbaugh’s balanced offense, with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris in the backfield, means Herbert will throw a ton while supported by a strong run game. Don’t shy away from his fantasy value.
- Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals): A true rollercoaster as QB10 last year, Murray had one QB1 week and five top-5 finishes but vanished in others. His connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. was confusing, but his spark can deliver 35+ point weeks. With Trey McBride’s extension, James Conner’s veteran presence, and a bounce-back expected with Harrison, Murray’s a high-upside pick.
- Justin Fields (New York Jets): The new Jets starter, Fields, is “exciting football.” His legs drove him to QB7 in 2022 with Chicago, and now he’s got arm strength and talent to pair with college teammate Garrett Wilson and rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Fields’ mobility and improving tight end play make him a draft steal you might regret passing on.
Constant Producers
These QBs are dependable, delivering consistent fantasy production.
- Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): QB8 last year, Goff powers a high-octane offense with his arm alone—no running needed. His consistency is remarkable: QB8 in 2024, QB7 in 2023, QB11 in 2022. Perfect for managers building around elite RBs and WRs, Goff is a cherry on top of a stacked roster.
- Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers): Initially a skeptic, I’m sold on Purdy’s consistency. QB13 in a weird 2024; he was QB6 in 2023. Despite losing Deebo Samuel, Purdy’s system with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and a returning Brandon Aiyuk ensures reliability. He’s a great fit for well-rounded rosters.
- Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams): A future Hall of Famer, Stafford’s arm fuels projections like Puka Nacua’s mid-first-round status. Cooper Kupp’s departure is offset by Davante Adams (a major upgrade), rookie tight end Terrence Ferguson, and a strong backfield. Stafford’s a perfect QB2 or streaming option for spot starts or injury cover.
Bounce-Back Candidates
These QBs are set for a big 2025 after a down year.
- CJ Stroud (Houston Texans): Overhyped last year, Stroud got the short end of the stick with poor protection. Still, his weapons—Nico Collins and Iowa State rookies—set him up for a rebound. His ADP will be lower, making him a value pick for a great 2025.
- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears): QB16 last year, Williams had a QB1 week and four top-5 finishes. Chicago bolstered its O-line and added DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Cole Kmet, with D’Andre Swift in the backfield. New OC Ben Johnson’s system primes Williams for a breakout.
Don’t Overthink These Guys
These QBs are reliable starters you might overlook in favor of flashier names.
- Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): QB18 last year, Love thrives in Green Bay’s point-scoring offense. The WR room lacks a clear WR1, but rookie Matthew Golden fits well, and tight end Tucker Kraft’s emergence adds targets. Love’s TD opportunities make him a sneaky good pick.
- Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys): Despite a 2024 injury, Prescott’s every 16+ game season has landed him in the top 10. Dallas ditched Mike McCarthy for an internal hire, keeping the scheme intact. New weapon George Pickens joins CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, making Prescott a top fantasy QB if healthy.
- Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks): QB7 last year with the Vikings, Darnold threw to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Now in Seattle, he’s got Cooper Kupp (a veteran to avoid in drafts) and emerging star Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks’ offense is no slouch, so don’t sleep on Darnold.
Sleepers
My favorite under-the-radar QBs for 2025.
- Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars): At just 25, Lawrence (QB10 in 2023, QB6 in 2022) is poised for a phenomenal year under new coach Liam Cohen’s offensive mind. Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and sleeper tight end Brenton Strange form a loaded arsenal, with a talented backfield boosting his outlook.
- Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers): After a brutal start (QB32 in Weeks 1-2 last year), Young rebounded from Week 8 to finish as QB12, ranking third in rushing TDs behind Hurts and Allen. The Panthers built around him, adding Tet McMillan to an improved roster. Young’s elite company in rushing makes him a massive sleeper.
Let’s See What They’ve Got
These QBs have upside but need to prove it on the field.
- Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans): The first overall pick, Ward’s arm strength and chaos-handling earned him the nod, but his lack of hype stems from a locked-in pick and thin weapons. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett are solid, with a great run game and tight end, but Ward must show consistency first.
- Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons): A shock pick last year, Penix replaces Kirk Cousins with weapons like Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. His fantasy style—likely pass-heavy, relying on TDs and yards—is unproven, so I’m hesitant late in drafts.
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): With Mike Vrabel’s new regime, Stefon Diggs, rookie Kyle Williams, TreVeyon Henderson, and an improved O-line, Maye has breakout potential. Still, safer options make him a wait-and-see for now.
- JJ McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings): Stepping into Sam Darnold’s 14-win shoes, McCarthy has Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones. His draft stock was shaky, and his play is unproven, so I’m not sold yet despite the ideal setup.
Not Worth the Risk
These QBs carry too much uncertainty or limited upside.
- Russell Wilson (New York Giants): After taking the Steelers to the playoffs (but flopping there), Wilson joins the Giants, who traded back into the first round for Jaxson Dart. His good games won’t blow up fantasy scores, and Dart’s looming presence makes him too risky.
- Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders): Smith’s career resurgence was phenomenal, but Pete Carroll’s run-heavy scheme with rookie Ashton Jeanty limits his ceiling. Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers aren’t enough for a draft pick—maybe a waiver wire grab against weak defenses.
- Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins): Two years ago, Tua’s offense exploded, giving Tyreek Hill a WR1 season. But his head trauma history is a unique concern. A normal hit could sideline him for weeks, risking your season if drafted high.
Stay Away
The absolute bottom of the barrel—avoid these QB rooms entirely.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Mason Rudolph/Will Howard): No Aaron Rodgers in sight, and even if he were, I’d pass. Rudolph or rookie Will Howard (who the team loves) offer no redraft value. Stay away.
- Cleveland Browns (Kenny Pickett/Joe Flacco/Shedeur Sanders/Dillon Gabriel): Pickett or Flacco likely start Week 1 until a rookie steps up, but the Browns’ fantasy value lies in their skill players, not QBs. Avoid this mess.
- Indianapolis Colts (Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones): Both QBs were once fantasy hopefuls but have “fallen off a cliff.” Jones’ arrival to compete with Richardson kills any appeal—don’t touch this room.
- New Orleans Saints (Spencer Rattler/Tyler Shough): Derek Carr’s retirement leaves Rattler (mediocre at best) and Shough (unproven) in a bleak situation. Neither is worth draft capital until they show something.
That’s the full tier list for the upcoming season, packed with every detail to guide your draft! Drop your thoughts in the comments, and keep it locked on Blitz Sports Media for more fantasy football insights. Follow, like, and subscribe!
