Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2026 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Defenses to Start
Chicago Bears DEF vs. TB
Chicago held Seattle to 252 total yards while recording three sacks and an interception, and Tampa Bay’s offensive numbers support another strong performance. The Buccaneers rank 29th in offensive EPA per play at −0.14, with a 40.24% success rate and a league-worst −0.28 EPA per pass. Their 3.37% interception rate adds turnover upside, while their 28th-ranked sack rate allowed creates opportunities for Chicago’s pass rush. Tampa Bay won without completing a pass last week, but relying on the ground game to carry the entire offense is a difficult formula against this front. I’m starting the Bears because the Buccaneers’ inefficient passing attack and protection problems give Chicago a strong opportunity to produce sacks, turnovers, and stalled drives.
New York Giants DEF @ PHI
Philadelphia’s offensive struggles make the Giants a worthwhile streamer coming out of their bye. The Eagles rank 31st in offensive EPA per play at −0.18, with a 37.92% success rate, −0.21 EPA per pass and −0.14 EPA per rush. They haven’t consistently moved the ball through either phase, scoring just 45 combined points and allowing 10 sacks across Tanner McKee’s three starts. Joe Milton III is taking over this week, but a quarterback change doesn’t automatically fix the protection or create a dependable rushing attack. I’m starting the Giants because Philadelphia’s inability to sustain efficient possessions creates a favorable scoring environment for a defense, with additional upside if Milton makes mistakes while trying to generate bigger plays.
Houston Texans DEF @ LAC
Houston’s recent defensive results haven’t been impressive, but the Chargers have the worst offensive profile in football. Los Angeles ranks last in EPA per play at −0.27 and offensive success rate at 35.58%, while producing −0.32 EPA per pass. Its offensive line ranks 30th in pass-block win rate, giving Houston’s pass rush a favorable matchup. Los Angeles has now gone 27 consecutive possessions without a touchdown, the longest such streak in the NFL since 2024, while allowing 23 sacks and throwing a league-high 10 interceptions this season. I’m starting Houston because this matchup offers everything fantasy managers want: an inefficient offense, a vulnerable quarterback, and repeated opportunities for sacks and takeaways.
Defenses to Sit
Minnesota Vikings DEF vs. BUF
Minnesota recorded four sacks against Detroit last week, but Buffalo makes those opportunities much harder to find. The Bills rank second in offensive EPA per play at +0.13, generating +0.19 EPA per pass and +0.07 EPA per rush with a 47.82% success rate. That efficiency through both phases prevents defenses from simply taking away one part of the offense and forcing predictable passing situations. Josh Allen has also taken only five sacks across Buffalo’s last four games, limiting the sack production Minnesota usually relies on. I’m sitting the Vikings because Buffalo can sustain drives and score without giving the defense enough negative plays to compensate. This is a difficult fantasy matchup even for a defense playing well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF @ CHI
Tampa Bay’s shutout and four interceptions against Atlanta were impressive, but Chicago’s recent offensive performance makes this a much tougher assignment. The Bears have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games, including 34 against Seattle, when Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and took only one sack. Since returning, Williams has generated 0.43 passing fantasy points per dropback, and his season-long 70.9% completion rate and +7.6 percentage-point completion percentage over expectation show how accurately he has been throwing. Chicago has also scored 17 rushing touchdowns, giving it another way to finish drives. I’m sitting Tampa Bay because the Bears are protecting the quarterback and creating touchdowns without needing to take the risks that fueled last week’s interception haul.
San Francisco 49ers DEF vs. LV
The Raiders’ passing efficiency makes San Francisco a riskier fantasy start than this matchup might appear. Las Vegas averages +0.18 EPA per pass and has thrown 19 touchdowns against a 1.71% interception rate, giving the offense a productive passing game without an excessive number of giveaways. Kirk Cousins just completed 19 of 26 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets, posting 0.47 EPA per dropback and a 55.6% success rate. The Raiders have also allowed only 11 sacks all season, limiting another major source of defensive fantasy points. Their rushing offense remains inefficient, but Cousins has consistently compensated through the air. I’m sitting the 49ers because Las Vegas’ passing production and low sack total make it difficult to count on a strong fantasy return.
Kickers to Start
Matt Gay, K (LV) @ SF
Matt Gay converted a 53-yard field goal and all five extra points against the Jets, continuing to benefit from a productive Raiders offense. His season-long accuracy has been strong, making 18 of 20 field goals, and Las Vegas has consistently created scoring opportunities with Kirk Cousins under center. San Francisco presents a tougher defensive assignment, but that can still work for Gay if the Raiders move into range before drives stall. The 49ers have allowed three kickers to score at least 11 fantasy points since Week 3. I’m starting Gay because his accuracy, range, and offensive support give him a strong opportunity to contribute even if Las Vegas finishes fewer possessions with touchdowns.
Cairo Santos, K (CHI) vs. TB
Cairo Santos has benefited from Chicago’s offensive improvement, making two field goals and four extra points against Seattle after converting three field goals against New England. The Bears have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games, giving Santos consistent opportunities without needing the offense to operate perfectly. Tampa Bay’s defense is capable of forcing drives to stall, but opponents have still generated useful kicking production: four kickers have scored at least 13 fantasy points against the Buccaneers this season. I’m starting Santos because Chicago is regularly moving into scoring position, and a competitive matchup should keep both field goals and extra points available.
Jason Myers, K (SEA) vs. ARI
Jason Myers needs a rebound after making one of two field goals, having a kick blocked and missing his only extra-point attempt against Chicago. He remains 15-for-17 on field goals this season, so one poor game doesn’t erase his overall accuracy. Arizona offers a favorable opportunity for Seattle to recover offensively, although Sam Darnold’s absence adds uncertainty. Drew Lock is expected to start while managing an elbow injury, and Seattle scored 31 points in his earlier start against the Cardinals. I’m starting Myers because the matchup gives Seattle a reasonable path back into scoring range, with field-goal opportunities available if drives stall under the backup quarterback.
Kickers to Sit
Harrison Butker, K (KC) vs. NYJ
Harrison Butker missed another field goal against Denver, finishing one-for-two while converting all three extra points. He is now 12-for-18 on field goals this season, including just two makes on seven attempts from 50 yards or longer, significantly reducing the value of his long-distance opportunities. The Jets haven’t consistently produced big fantasy results for opposing kickers either, allowing only two to reach double digits this season. A productive Chiefs afternoon could leave Butker collecting extra points without enough field goals to separate him from better streaming options. I’m sitting him because the accuracy problems, particularly from distance, outweigh the appeal of kicking for a favored offense.
Chase McLaughlin, K (TB) @ CHI
Chase McLaughlin has scored double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games and six of eight overall, but Chicago is a difficult matchup for extending that streak. Only one opposing kicker has exceeded seven fantasy points against the Bears this season, and that was Will Reichard with nine. Chicago’s defense just held Seattle to 252 yards and one third-down conversion, showing how effectively it can prevent an offense from reaching scoring range. McLaughlin’s recent production deserves respect, but Tampa Bay needs sustained drives to create opportunities for him. I’m sitting him this week because Chicago’s ability to end possessions threatens his field-goal volume.
Chad Ryland, K (ARI) @ SEA
Chad Ryland made both field-goal attempts and three of four extra points against Dallas after converting three field goals against Denver the previous week. His season-long 19-for-21 field-goal record shows that accuracy isn’t the concern. The problem is an Arizona offense facing a Seattle defense that has allowed just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and −0.13 EPA per play. Gardner Minshew helped the Cardinals rally against Dallas, but sustaining drives against Seattle will be a tougher assignment. If Arizona falls behind and needs touchdowns, it could also pass up field-goal opportunities. I’m sitting Ryland because the offensive matchup threatens his opportunities despite his strong recent kicking.
