Very full slate(s) today with 2 slates covering all the games. I’ll be breaking this up into 2 articles to make sure the early stuff gets out in time.
TOR @ TB
I don’t mind going to Patrick Corbin here but he does worry me with the power he’s been giving up to RHBs this year. Caminero was mashing against LHPs last season but so far this year has had trouble getting the ball in the air. Yandy Diaz looks to be in a good spot here. His numbers are pretty in line with last year and he’s been walking less, which means more bat on ball. Jonny DeLuca has been a surprise so far this year with a .667 SLG and .423 wOBA. He’s also doing a decent job of getting the ball into the air with some power behind it. Not much interest in the other RHBs in this Tampa Bay lineup.
Shane McClanahan is in play for me here. He’s had a great season so far, hasn’t been giving up the long ball, and has a decent K rate. This Toronto lineup has been very soft hitting this year outside of two batters: Vlad and Varsho. I’m not going to try and one-off either of them here.
MIL @ STL
This one is tough because this park is so bad for HRs, but I really want to target hitters against Sproat here. He’s been getting crushed from both sides of the plate this year. LHBs: .449 wOBA, fly ball pitcher, 2.51 HR/9. RHBs: .348 wOBA, fly ball pitcher, 2.19 HR/9. The morning slate might be thin enough, though, that I’ll go after the STL lineup here. I’m looking for hitters on either side of the plate with enough hard hit contact to get the ball deep in this park. Players that pop for me here: Walker, Burleson, Gorman.
I wouldn’t want to use Pallante here with that low K rate, but I also wouldn’t really want to target hitters against him. If you want to stack this game, Mitchell, Turang, and Bauers from the left side of the plate would be my MIL targets.
LAD @ HOU
Glasnow is in a good spot here and in play. His K numbers are looking even better than last year at the moment. HOU doesn’t strike out a ton at the top of the order but they really fall off after the first 4 guys.
Lance McCullers continues to be erratic. He walks way too many batters and it’ll set up for a big AB for a few of these Dodgers hitters. This entire lineup is practically in play tonight. Take a look at the numbers below.
SD @ SF
Both these pitchers get lit up by lefties but I’m not expecting many home runs here in a park that regularly has a 1.5 home run total. That said, I’ll be avoiding both pitchers.
SD only has 3 LHBs projected starting today. Sheets could be a potential one-off, but I doubt I’ll go there. On the other side, SF projects 4 LHBs, none of which have been hitting for any power this year. This game probably ends up a full fade for me.
CWS @ LAA
Both these young pitchers have been solid so far in their short major league careers. Both were great in the minors as well. I think I’m avoiding this game altogether. It’s certainly possible one of these young guys blows up but I wouldn’t know where to target them. If I were playing this game, I’d probably be stacking hitters from both sides.
ATL @ SEA
Perez’s K rates are down this year, but he doesn’t get himself in much trouble and rarely gives up the long ball. I won’t be targeting him as a pitcher nor will I be targeting hitters against him.
Woo has really fallen off against lefties this year. K rate is down to 15.6% and he’s given up hard hit fly balls in bunches. This Atlanta lineup mashes from the left side of the plate. I think a full lefty ATL stack is in play here with Baldwin, Albies, Olson, Harris, and Yastrzemski.
That’s a wrap on the early slate. I’m splitting today’s article in two given the size of the slate — keep an eye out for the late slate write-up coming next.
Recap
Spots I’m attacking on the early slate:
Pitchers: Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow.
Stacks and hitters:
- Yandy Diaz and Jonny DeLuca as TB one-offs against Corbin.
- STL hitters against Sproat — Walker, Burleson, Gorman the standouts.
- MIL lefties on the other side if you’re stacking the game — Mitchell, Turang, Bauers.
- Full LAD lineup against McCullers.
- ATL lefty stack against Woo: Baldwin, Albies, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski.
Good luck on the early slate. See you back here for the late games.
