The first divisional matchup at New Highmark Stadium kicks off tomorrow at 1 pm EST! The Buffalo Bills are 3-0, matching fan expectations, while the New England Patriots are 1-2 and on the brink of collapse if they fall to 1-3.
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Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills rank 4th in the league in total yards per game (401.7) and 1st in points per game (33.7) after a flawless 3-0 start. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, rank 22nd in the league in yards per game (307.0). The Patriots also tie the Miami Dolphins for the fewest points per game (12.0)—about a 95-yard difference and a 22-point advantage for Buffalo.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 25th in yards allowed per game (361.3). The Bills rank T-21st in points allowed per game (26.0). New England, meanwhile, ranks 5th in the league through three weeks in yards allowed (278.3) and 6th in points allowed per game (17.0). That leaves Buffalo allowing 83 more yards and 9 more points per game than the Patriots.
Let’s average these numbers. The Bills’ offense should have around 340 total yards and about 25 points, while the Patriots’ offense should have around 334 yards and about 19 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a 6-point advantage and a slight 6-yard edge overall, with the Vegas line at -7 favoring Buffalo. The Patriots are 1-1-1 covering the spread, while the Bills are 3-0 covering. Betting the Bills at -7 matches the averages above; I’d still drop it to -6.5 to play it a bit safer.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold
As always, let’s look at some hot and cold players on both teams heading into this playoff matchup.
- 🔥 Greg Rousseau has been on my Buffalo Bills hot list two weeks in a row for good reason: he has 6 sacks through the first 3 weeks, with 2 in each game. Rousseau is on pace for a record-shattering 34-sack season; will that come to fruition? Probably not. But if he keeps this up, Myles Garrett’s record may last only one season.
- 🥶 Khalil Shakir has been ice cold to start the season; the Bills’ 2025 receptions and receiving yards leader has just 8 receptions for 94 yards through 3 weeks. Yes, Shakir is now the WR2, but Keon Coleman, who’s been labeled a “bust,” has 8 receptions himself for 101 yards, all while being the WR4. Shakir needs to get back on track, and this matchup against a Patriots secondary without Christian Gonzalez should help.
- 🔥 Carlton Davis III ranks 8th out of 99 qualified CBs according to PFF, and this week he gets a major test with Christian Gonzalez out and DJ Moore as the assignment.
- 🥶 Drake “Fraud Maye” Maye is not only regressing, but he is having one of the historically worst seasons a modern NFL QB could have. 1 TD and 7 Turnovers through 3 games has him on pace to finish the season with just 6 TDs and 39 TOs. Obviously there’s no chance it ends like that, but it shows how bad he’s been through 3 games. If this continues, we may see backup QB Tommy DeVito starting in Week 13 when these teams meet again.
Game Predictions
With the Patriots trending down, Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore out, and A.J. Brown still on IR, the Buffalo Bills win 30-17. James Cook has 100 total yards, and DJ Moore has over 5 receptions for 75 yards.
Other Content
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