All the years I’ve played fantasy football I will look at preseason Vegas odds to see if there are any correlations between prognosticating between the odds makers and the fantasy community.
Most of the time the two groups seem to be in line with the reality of players or teams’ potential for the upcoming season.
But sometimes they are way off the mark.
I’m going to take a look at three spots you can take advantage of the early odds to make some money during the season.
Let’s get into those preseason bets!
Vegas Odds: Rushing TDs
Jahmyr Gibbs over 11.5 (-120, FanDuel)
This number is a head scratcher as Gibbs has averaged 13 rushing touchdowns a season in his three years in the league.
And without David Montgomery joining Gibbs in the Detroit backfield this season, I would have expected his total to be a little higher. Montgomery averaged 11 rushing TDs a season in his three years with the Lions, who traded him to the Houston Texans in the offseason.
The Lions also have a favorable schedule for their running game based on last year’s defenses. Detroit will face defenses who gave 124 rushing yards a game and 18.3 fantasy points to RB in 2025.
Plus, Gibbs’ competition for touches are not on the same level as Montgomery’s talent. Isiah Pacheco and Sione Vaki are Gibbs’ current backups.
Pacheco, despite his 5-foot-10, 210-pound size, is an aggressive runner when he was with Kansas City the past four seasons. But injuries have limited him the last two seasons.
Vaki is the biggest of the three RBs (Gibbs is 5-9, 202) at 5-11, 216 pounds. However, Vaki’s RB skills are still limited as he was a two-way player in college at Utah and he has only 6 carries in two seasons with the Lions.
Gibbs joins Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson as the first two RBs off most fantasy football draft boards.
Vegas Odds: Total Team Wins
New England under 10.5 (-140, DraftKings)
Much has been made about the Patriots’ Super Bowl run last season.
They played against one of the weakest schedules during the season (preseason third – 124-165 .429).
They caught every break during the playoffs (Houston in the snow and Denver without Bo Nix and second-half snow).
During the offseason, the management gave quarterback Drake Maye a certified No. 1 wide receiver in A.J. Brown, while the rest of the offense has another year under their belts with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
But the NFL 2025 schedule makers were cruel right from the start for a return to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs.
The Patriots go to Seattle in Week 1 for the 2026 opener, then home vs. Pittsburgh (who they lost at home last year), at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. Then in their last six games of the season, they will play against four annual playoff contenders in Buffalo, Minnesota, Kansas City and Denver.
Plus, we have the Super Bowl loser curse as six of the last 10 Super Bowl have failed to reach the playoffs the next season, and those teams only averaged 8.7 wins the following year after the Super Bowl loss.
Vegas Odds: Passing Yards
Dak Prescott over 4,000.5 yards (-114 on FanDuel)
It’s pretty simple, in my opinion, that this line is only going to go up as the season approaches.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens return to lead the WR group, while TE Jake Ferguson is coming off a career year in receptions (82). Then Prescott has Javonte Williams still in the backfield after his career-season as Williams has averaged 220.6 receiving yards a season in his career.
I believe both Lamb and Pickens can be 1,000-yard receivers again this season, and Ryan Flournoy and KaVontae Turpin proved to be capable back-ups when Lamb missed time last season.
But let’s back to Prescott. He’s had three 4,000-yard passing seasons in his last five seasons.
The only thing stopping him is an injury. In his only two sub-4,000-yard passing seasons, he played only 12 and 8 games.
For his career, Prescott has averaged 258.9 passing yards a game, and the Cowboys may need all those yards and then some.
The Dallas defense allowed 30.1 points a game last season, and even though the team addressed that side of the ball in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, the rookies may need time to adjust to NFL offenses.
Prescott’s arm (and passing yards) will be needed for a path to victories in 2026 for the Cowboys.
The fantasy football season will be here before we know, and it’s still a good time to join our team here at Blitz Sports Media! We are offering 15 percent off of memberships using the code winnow as we offer three levels, including our premium Hall of Fame level. Check it out!
And check out our continued NFL and college football coverage during the offseason and our continued coverage of Major League Baseball!
Plus, don’t forget to check out our affiliates for some bonus cash with our promos.
– Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @fantasyfbguru2 or Bluesky @fantasyfbguru2.bsky.social and don’t forget to check our main page with coverage of college football, NFL, fantasy football and a few best bets added.
