Thursday Night Football gives us one of the best fantasy environments of Week 2 with the Detroit Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Both offenses scored at least 30 points in Week 1, and this game carries one of the highest projected totals on the entire slate. That gives us plenty of players we want in our fantasy lineups, but it doesn’t mean everyone involved in this game should automatically be started.
Lineup Locks
- Josh Allen
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- James Cook
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Sam LaPorta
There aren’t any real decisions to make with these five. They’re staying in our lineups regardless of format. The more interesting decisions come after them, especially with Buffalo’s new-look passing game and a Detroit offense that could be forced to throw considerably more than it did for much of Week 1.
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff didn’t have to do anything spectacular in Detroit’s 31-30 win over New Orleans, but I’m considerably more interested in him against Buffalo. The Bills allowed C.J. Stroud to complete 26-of-38 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, and Detroit brings considerably more firepower into this matchup. Buffalo was also only 19th in pressure rate at 31.8%, and when the Bills failed to pressure Stroud, he completed 20-of-28 passes for 226 yards and two touchdowns. That’s especially interesting for an offense capable of attacking defenses at every level with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Buffalo’s defense should improve as the season progresses, but Week 1 showed us this secondary can be attacked.
The game environment is what really pushes Goff into my starting lineups. Buffalo is capable of scoring quickly with Josh Allen, which should prevent Detroit from simply leaning on Gibbs and controlling the game on the ground. The Lions will also be without starting left guard Christian Mahogany and right tackle Blake Miller, which could make consistently running directly at Buffalo more difficult. I’d expect Detroit to lean heavily on Goff’s quick passing game while mixing in opportunities downfield. We know Goff has an enormous fantasy ceiling when Detroit is forced into a shootout, and this is exactly the type of matchup where we could see elevated passing volume. I’m starting him as a QB1 on Thursday night.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid was one of my biggest rest-of-season rankings risers after Week 1, and I’m immediately putting him back into my lineup against Detroit. Kincaid caught five of six targets for 130 yards against Houston, but the box score wasn’t even the most encouraging part of his performance. He played 72.4% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps and ran a route on 68.8% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Both numbers represented a significant increase from the role that consistently capped his fantasy production last season, when his highest snap rate in any game was only 55%. According to Fantasy Points Data, Kincaid was already one of the NFL’s most efficient receiving tight ends on a per-route basis last season. Now we’re finally seeing Buffalo give him more opportunities to turn that efficiency into consistent fantasy production.
The matchup gives me another reason to immediately trust the expanded role. Detroit allowed New Orleans tight ends to combine for seven receptions, 87 yards, and two touchdowns on 15 targets in Week 1 while Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards and three scores overall. Kincaid obviously isn’t going to maintain the 5.91 yards per route run he produced in the opener, but I don’t need anything close to that if Buffalo continues giving him this level of playing time. That’s the entire reason I’m considerably more confident starting him this season. With Allen playing at an elite level and this game carrying legitimate shootout potential, Kincaid has both a much safer floor and the type of ceiling that can swing a fantasy matchup. He’s firmly in my lineup Thursday night.
DJ Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills
I’m going right back to DJ Moore after an extremely encouraging Bills debut against Houston. Moore caught five of eight targets for 100 yards and a touchdown while also drawing a 46-yard pass interference penalty against one of the NFL’s better secondaries. More importantly, the usage showed Buffalo didn’t trade for Moore to make him another piece of its wide receiver rotation. He ran a route on 81.3% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks, commanded a 28.6% target share, and accounted for 33.3% of Buffalo’s first-read targets. He also accounted for nearly 46% of the team’s air yards. That’s the type of usage I wanted to see before trusting Moore as a weekly fantasy starter, and we got it immediately in his first regular-season game with Allen.
Detroit gives him an opportunity to build on it. The Lions allowed New Orleans wide receivers to combine for 20 receptions and 293 yards in Week 1, including 174 yards on throws traveling at least 15 yards downfield. That fits particularly well with Moore after his average target traveled more than 19 yards downfield in his Buffalo debut. Detroit’s offense should also put enough pressure on Buffalo to keep Allen throwing throughout the night rather than allowing the Bills to protect a lead with James Cook. Moore doesn’t need another 100-yard game to return value with this type of target share, downfield usage, and touchdown upside. After seeing Buffalo immediately establish him as its clear top wide receiver, I’m comfortable starting Moore as a WR2 Thursday night.
Sit ‘Em
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Khalil Shakir is the Buffalo receiver I’m considerably less interested in starting Thursday night. He caught four of six targets for 50 yards against Houston and still commanded a respectable 21.4% target share, so this isn’t a case of Shakir suddenly disappearing from the offense. The concern is how many opportunities he’s actually going to have every week. Shakir was on the field for only 62.5% of Buffalo’s dropbacks after sitting around 75% over the previous two seasons, while DJ Moore immediately ran a route on more than 80% of the team’s dropbacks. Shakir also remained almost exclusively an underneath option, averaging only 3.2 air yards per target. He can remain a valuable player for Buffalo without consistently getting the route volume or high-value targets we need for fantasy.
The matchup with Detroit is good enough that Shakir could absolutely produce a usable fantasy score, which is what makes this a little uncomfortable. Detroit allowed 127 yards to slot receivers in Week 1, and Shakir was still targeted on 30% of the routes he actually ran against Houston. My concern is more about his ceiling than his talent or matchup. Moore has immediately established himself as the primary wide receiver, while Dalton Kincaid’s expanded role gives Allen another player capable of commanding targets over the middle. That leaves Shakir needing to remain extremely efficient on shorter opportunities if his route participation stays around 60%. In deeper PPR leagues, he’s still defensible as a flex, but in normal formats I’d rather chase a receiver with a clearer path toward both volume and explosive plays.
On the Fence
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams is easily the most difficult decision in this game. His Week 1 box score was disappointing, finishing with four receptions for 45 yards on nine targets despite Detroit scoring 31 points, but I’m considerably more encouraged by the usage underneath that performance. Williams commanded a 23.1% target share while accounting for more than half of Detroit’s air yards. He also left a massive play on the field with a drop that could have gone for around 50 yards, while three of his nine targets were charted as uncatchable. That’s frustrating for anyone who started him, but it’s much different than Williams disappearing from Detroit’s offensive game plan. The opportunities for a much bigger fantasy performance were clearly there.
Buffalo also just allowed 274 passing yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Stroud, so I’m not afraid of the matchup itself. My concern is how consistently Williams converts his opportunities with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs all commanding touches. Buffalo also used plenty of split-safety coverage in Week 1, which has historically been less favorable for Williams than the single-high looks that allow him to attack defenses vertically. Christian Benford remains another difficult individual matchup after spending much of Week 1 matched with Nico Collins, although Detroit moves its receivers around enough that I’m not assuming Buffalo gives him the same assignment against Williams. That’s enough to keep Williams outside my must-start group, but the expected scoring environment and his Week 1 usage make him extremely difficult to bench if you’re dealing with injuries at wide receiver. If you have another strong WR2 or flex option, I’m willing to wait another week. If injuries have pushed Williams into your starting lineup, I’m comfortable taking the risk because one explosive play could completely change his fantasy night.
