Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2026 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Quarterbacks to Start
C.J. Stroud, QB (HOU)
C.J. Stroud has turned his season around over the last three games, finishing as the QB5, QB13 and QB5 while throwing six passing touchdowns and adding another score on the ground. Since Nico Collins returned in Week 4, Stroud has thrown for 920 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception, giving Houston’s offense a much-needed boost. His advanced passing numbers have also been encouraging, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, ninth in passing success rate and second in hero throw rate among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, according to FantasyPros’ Week 7 analysis. Stroud has also been particularly effective against pressure, with NFL Next Gen Stats reporting a 60.9% success rate against the blitz entering Week 6. His improved efficiency and Collins’ return have helped restore the explosive passing plays that were missing earlier in the season.
The Giants have allowed 21.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the seventh-most in the NFL, and have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback. New York ranks 21st in defensive EPA per dropback according to Fourth and Data’s 2026 rankings, although FantasyPros’ separate analysis places the Giants 12th-worst in EPA allowed per dropback. Both datasets point toward an exploitable passing defense, particularly one that has surrendered the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate. Those struggles have been evident recently, with Jayden Daniels and Tyler Shough combining for 59.22 fantasy points against the Giants over the last two weeks. Stroud’s efficiency against the blitz provides another advantage if New York attempts to generate pressure, making him one of my favorite quarterback starts of Week 7.
Kyler Murray, QB (MIN)
Kyler Murray struggled through his first two appearances with Minnesota, finishing as the QB27 and QB28 before showing meaningful improvement against New Orleans in Week 5. Murray completed 24 of 30 passes for 229 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions while rushing for a season-high 51 yards, finishing with 18.26 fantasy points as the QB10. His rushing involvement was particularly encouraging after recording no more than 17 rushing yards in either of his first two games. However, his passing efficiency remains a concern, ranking second-worst in passing success rate, fifth-worst in highly accurate throw rate and fourth-lowest in average depth of target among qualifying quarterbacks. Murray hasn’t consistently pushed the ball downfield, but his ability to generate fantasy points as a runner gives him another avenue to produce even when Minnesota’s passing attack struggles.
Indianapolis has allowed 18.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 11th in the NFL, while surrendering the eighth-most passing yards per attempt and the tenth-highest passing touchdown rate. The Colts have also allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage over expected, indicating that opposing quarterbacks have been completing passes at a higher rate than the difficulty of their throws would suggest. Three of the four established fantasy starters Indianapolis has faced have scored at least 22 fantasy points, creating an encouraging matchup for Murray following Minnesota’s bye week. I’m comfortable overlooking some of Murray’s passing inefficiency because Indianapolis has struggled to limit successful throws, while his mobility provides a separate path toward fantasy production. Murray is a low-end QB1 with upside if his rushing involvement continues.
Aaron Rodgers, QB (PIT)
Aaron Rodgers has quietly remained a productive fantasy option despite Pittsburgh’s inconsistent passing offense, delivering several strong performances over the opening six weeks. His Week 4 performance included 299 passing yards and three touchdowns, although two interceptions limited him to 19.96 fantasy points under standard four-point passing touchdown and minus-two interception scoring. He’s currently the QB18 in fantasy points per game, but his recent touchdown production demonstrates that he can still provide useful fantasy performances when the matchup allows it. His advanced metrics haven’t been particularly impressive, ranking among the bottom ten qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt and passing success rate, while sitting 20th in highly accurate throw rate. Rodgers has alternated between a conservative passing approach and more aggressive downfield opportunities, creating considerable week-to-week volatility.
New Orleans has allowed 18.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 14th, but its underlying passing-defense metrics suggest a more favorable matchup than that figure indicates. The Saints have surrendered the seventh-most yards per passing attempt, the fourth-highest passing success rate and the sixth-highest completion percentage over expected. That combination creates opportunities for Rodgers to generate efficient passing production against a defense that has struggled to prevent successful throws. Pittsburgh doesn’t need Rodgers to produce substantial rushing numbers for him to deliver a useful fantasy performance, particularly if the offense can sustain drives and capitalize near the goal line. His season-long efficiency and limited mobility still create some risk, but I’m targeting the matchup rather than trusting his overall production. Rodgers is a strong streaming option with low-end QB1 upside.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC)
Patrick Mahomes remains one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks, but his recent fantasy production hasn’t consistently matched his underlying passing numbers. He ranks fifth in yards per attempt, third in passing success rate and eighth in EPA per dropback among qualifying quarterbacks, demonstrating that he’s still operating at a high level. However, his weekly fantasy production has been more inconsistent than those efficiency rankings suggest. Mahomes scored more than 21 fantasy points in each of his first two games and exceeded 17 points against Las Vegas in Week 4, but followed that with a season-low 10.48 fantasy points against the Chargers in Week 6. His receiving situation also remains uncertain, with Rashee Rice missing Wednesday’s practice because of hamstring and knee injuries. Mahomes practiced fully despite his own knee designation, but Rice’s potential absence would remove an important receiving option ahead of a difficult matchup.
Seattle has been the most difficult quarterback matchup in fantasy football outside of Minnesota, allowing just 12.3 fantasy points per game to the position, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Seahawks have also allowed a league-low 156.8 passing yards per game, 5.2 yards per attempt and 81.7 yards after the catch per game. That last statistic is particularly important because approximately 62.4% of Mahomes’ passing production this season has come after the catch, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. Seattle also ranks first in limiting yards per attempt and second in defensive passing success rate allowed, making explosive passing production difficult to generate. Mahomes is talented enough to overcome any matchup, but the combination of inconsistent fantasy production, Rice’s uncertain availability and an elite opposing secondary creates considerable risk. I’m treating him as a lower-end QB1 who can be benched for a stronger matchup, particularly C.J. Stroud against the Giants.
Tyler Shough, QB (NO)
Tyler Shough bounced back against the Giants in Week 6, finishing as the QB2 after two disappointing performances, but his recent production has been extremely inconsistent. He completed just 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, but compensated with three passing touchdowns, 32 rushing yards and another score on the ground. His combined passing production across Weeks 5 and 6 was only 240 yards, a significant decline after averaging 300.8 passing yards through his first four games. He’s also been playing through two broken bones in his non-throwing hand, adding another concern to an already volatile fantasy profile. Shough currently ranks as the QB11 in fantasy points per game, although his advanced passing metrics are considerably less impressive. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 26th in yards per attempt and 20th in passing success rate, despite ranking eighth in hero throw rate.
Pittsburgh has allowed just 12.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and has held five of its six opposing quarterbacks below 13 fantasy points. The Steelers have also allowed the eighth-lowest defensive EPA per dropback and seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback, demonstrating that their success isn’t limited to suppressing passing touchdowns. Although Pittsburgh ranks closer to the middle of the league in yards per attempt and passing success rate allowed, its ability to prevent efficient fantasy production makes this a difficult matchup for Shough. His four total touchdowns against New York masked a poor passing performance, and relying on that kind of scoring efficiency against Pittsburgh is a risky fantasy strategy. Shough is a sit in standard one-quarterback leagues because his declining passing production and difficult matchup create too much uncertainty following his Week 6 rebound.
Kirk Cousins, QB (LV)
Kirk Cousins has been more productive than expected through six weeks, delivering several strong fantasy performances while ranking as the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He completed 23 of 41 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against Buffalo in Week 6, finishing with 18.52 fantasy points under standard four-point passing touchdown and minus-two interception scoring. Both of his touchdown passes went to Tre Tucker in the fourth quarter, including a 44-yard score with fewer than two minutes remaining, demonstrating how much of his production depended on late-game passing volume. His underlying passing metrics have also been respectable, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in passing success rate and tenth in EPA per dropback among qualifying quarterbacks. However, Cousins offers very little rushing production, making him considerably more dependent on passing volume and touchdowns than quarterbacks who can generate points on the ground.
The Rams have allowed 17.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 16th, but their underlying coverage metrics are considerably more impressive. Los Angeles has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per attempt, fifth-lowest passing success rate, and 14th-lowest defensive EPA per dropback. Those numbers suggest the Rams have been effective at limiting efficient passing production even when opposing quarterbacks accumulate fantasy points through volume. Cousins could benefit if Las Vegas falls behind and is forced into a pass-heavy game script, but relying on additional attempts against a strong passing defense isn’t an ideal fantasy strategy. His lack of rushing production also limits his ability to overcome a difficult matchup if the Raiders struggle to sustain drives. I’m sitting Cousins in standard leagues and viewing him as a QB2 rather than a preferred Week 7 starter, especially with several quarterbacks facing more favorable defenses.
