The best AFC players to target in fantasy this season all share one trait: the market is underrating them. The AFC is where a lot of 2026 drafts will be won and lost. It is the conference of Josh Allen and the Bills machine, of a Bengals passing attack that can still light up a scoreboard, of a Texans offense on the rise, and of a Raiders backfield built around a top-six draft pick. None of the four players below are going off the board at their true ceiling. Each carries a question mark from 2025 that scared off a chunk of the room, and each has a specific, verifiable reason to believe 2026 looks different.
These are not safe, boring picks. Their 2025 production undersells the range of outcomes in front of them. Let’s dig into Ashton Jeanty, Joe Burrow, Jayden Higgins, and DJ Moore, and find the value.
Key takeaways:
- Ashton Jeanty (RB, Raiders): Late-first-round ADP, 321-touch rookie floor, and a rebuilt offensive line pointing at top-five upside.
- Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals): Elite QB1 rate stats (17 TDs in 8 games) selling at a discount because of a now-healed turf toe.
- Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans): A late-round dart with a proven red zone role who tied Nico Collins for the team touchdown lead as a rookie.
- DJ Moore (WR, Bills): A WR1 projection at a WR3 price now that he is Josh Allen’s clear No. 1 target.
For more of our draft-season strategy, see our 2026 fantasy football draft guide below!
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
If you drafted Jeanty in the first round of 2025 redraft leagues, his rookie year felt like a slow-motion disappointment. The raw counting stats were solid for a first-year back. He carried the ball 266 times for 975 yards and five rushing touchdowns, then added 55 catches on 73 targets for 346 yards and five more scores through the air. That works out to 321 total touches, 1,321 scrimmage yards, and 10 total touchdowns, which broke Josh Jacobs’ franchise record of 1,316 scrimmage yards by a Raiders rookie. Jeanty also joined Marcus Allen as the only rookies in Raiders history with 10 or more touchdowns in a season.
The frustration lived in the efficiency and the week-to-week consistency. Jeanty averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, and the film pins that on the offensive line more than the runner. He gained only 1.6 yards per carry before contact, one of the worst marks in the league, which tells you defenders kept meeting him in the backfield. The volume made him useful. He finished as roughly the RB11 in total PPR points, but he slid to around RB16 on a per-game basis, and the week-to-week ride was rough. He topped 80 rushing yards in only three games and fell under 50 rushing yards in eight of them. Half of his total touchdowns came in just two contests, against Chicago and at Houston.
He still belongs on a target list, because the context around him is changing in the ways you would want. The Raiders were one of the worst offenses in football in 2025, ranking 30th in yards per play and 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game. A back cannot manufacture goal-line work that the offense never generates. Las Vegas responded this offseason by rebuilding the interior of the line, most notably signing All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum in free agency, which upgrades the exact area that failed Jeanty a year ago. The staff that produced that 11-game stretch is gone too, with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fired partway through the season.
The talent was never the issue. This is a player who was the sixth overall pick for a reason, and he showed real burst in flashes even behind a broken front. The volume also holds up as a floor, since 321 touches as a rookie is the kind of workload that keeps a back fantasy-relevant even in a down year. Now he steps into 2026 with a better line, a fresh scheme, and locked-in three-down usage. PFF has gone so far as to float him as a candidate for the top fantasy running back spot in 2026 if the blocking improves.
His ADP has settled around the back of the first round, roughly the top 10 among running backs in PPR formats. That is the sweet spot. You are paying for a solid RB1 floor built on 300-plus touches, and you get a real path to a top-five overall running back finish if the Vegas offense takes even a modest step forward. Buy the situation, not the frustration.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow’s 2025 was a lost season, but do not read the injury as a knock on his fantasy value. The injury suppressed his draft price while his per-game production, when he played, matched anyone’s in the league.
Burrow suffered a Grade 3 turf toe injury in Week 2 against Jacksonville. That is the most severe form of turf toe, essentially a complete tear of the soft tissue that stabilizes the big toe joint, and it required surgery on September 19. He ended up missing nine games. Without him, the Bengals cratered, dropping eight of nine and sitting at 3-8 before he came back. Cincinnati finished 6-11, its worst record since Burrow’s rookie year.
The part that matters for fantasy is what he did in his eight appearances. Burrow completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 1,809 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just five interceptions, good for a 100.7 passer rating that ranked seventh among starting quarterbacks. Do the math on that. Roughly 226 passing yards and better than two touchdowns per game is elite QB1 pace over a full season. He returned ahead of schedule too, taking the field 69 days after toe surgery, then led Cincinnati to a 32-14 win over Baltimore on Thanksgiving. The Bengals went 5-3 in his eight starts. That is the same Burrow producing at a top-tier clip, not a diminished player limping through the fall.
He has since called the toe a non-issue and said he feels “the best I’ve felt in a long time.” Pair a healthy Burrow with the receiving weapons Cincinnati has, and you have a quarterback whose rate stats scream top-five upside at the position. The injury discount is the opportunity. In drafts where managers fade a quarterback coming off a season-ending injury, Burrow becomes a value, and he rewards anyone who likes to wait on the position and still land a difference-maker. Health is never guaranteed with any player, but a repaired turf toe is not a chronic condition. Let the room overthink it and scoop the arm.
Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans
Higgins is the deepest sleeper of this group, and he might have the widest gap between his current price and his realistic ceiling. As a rookie second-round pick out of Iowa State, he was mostly a part-time player, yet he still produced in the ways that predict future breakouts.
The line: 41 catches on 68 targets for 525 yards and six touchdowns across 17 games with 10 starts. On the surface, that is a modest rookie season, but the underlying usage is what should grab your attention. Those six touchdown grabs tied two-time Pro Bowler Nico Collins for the team lead, and Higgins finished second on the Texans in end zone targets. When Houston got near the goal line, they were already looking his way, and that is exactly the kind of trust that translates to fantasy points. He also finished third on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards despite the limited snap count.
The late-season trend is encouraging too. In seven of his final 11 games, Higgins either caught at least five passes, cleared 50 yards, or found the end zone, and he topped 9.0 half-PPR points in six of those outings. That is starter-level production packed into a rookie who was not even on the field for every snap.
Now the 2026 setup. Veteran slot man Christian Kirk left in free agency, which opens up targets, and head coach DeMeco Ryans has praised the Year 2 jump he is seeing from Higgins, describing him as a weapon opposite Collins. Houston also invested in its offensive line, which should keep quarterback C.J. Stroud upright and the passing game humming. The risks deserve a fair hearing too. Higgins and Collins are both prototypical X-receivers, so Higgins may not see the field on every two-receiver set. Jaylin Noel is the favorite to inherit Kirk’s slot role, and a returning Tank Dell could eat into the rotation as he comes back from a knee injury.
That is why Higgins is a target at his cost rather than a lock at a premium one. He is going in the late rounds, which means the downside is minimal and the upside is enormous. You are betting on red zone role plus a Year 2 leap plus a vacated target share in a good offense. Remember that he already tied a two-time Pro Bowler for the team touchdown lead while playing part-time snaps, so the scoring role is not a projection. It is something he did as a rookie. Hit on the full combination, and you have found a weekly starter for the price of a dart throw.
DJ Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills
DJ Moore is the classic case of a talented receiver whose fantasy value was being strangled by his situation, and that situation just changed in a massive way. Moore is out of Chicago and into Buffalo, and the move recasts the entire outlook.
Start with the honest part. Moore is coming off the least productive season of his career. In 2025 he caught 50 passes for 683 yards and six touchdowns on 85 targets across 17 games. For a player who has posted multiple 1,100-yard seasons and topped 1,300 yards as recently as 2023, that is a real dip, driven by a crowded and inconsistent Bears passing pecking order. Judging him on that stat line alone, you might pass.
Then the Bills traded a second-round pick to acquire him, sending Chicago that pick and receiving Moore plus a 2026 fifth-rounder in return. That is the tell. Buffalo does not give up a second-round pick for a receiver it plans to use as a complementary piece. Moore lands in Buffalo as the clear No. 1 target ahead of Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer, and he catches passes from Josh Allen, who was already the top fantasy quarterback in the league heading into 2026. He also reunites with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who fed Moore enormous volume back in their Carolina days.
The projection math is compelling. Median forecasts have Moore around 84 receptions, 1,134 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns in this offense, and that is described as a relatively modest projection given the quarterback throwing him the ball. That output would total roughly 203 fantasy points, which would have finished as the WR7 in 2025, WR9 in 2024, and WR15 in 2023. Even a conservative Buffalo projection lands Moore in WR1 territory.
The one caveat worth naming is that Allen spreads the ball around and Moore may not command the target monopoly that Stefon Diggs once did in Buffalo. But he does not need to. He only needs to be the preferred option in one of the best offenses in football, and every sign points to exactly that role. With an ADP hovering in the fourth-to-fifth-round range, you are getting a proven separator, in a top offense, with a career-best quarterback, at a WR3 price. That is one of the cleaner value gaps on the entire board.
The Best AFC Players to Target in Fantasy: Bottom Line
Notice the common thread across all four. Each of these AFC players to target in fantasy has a 2025 data point that scares away the casual drafter, and in each case that data point is a function of situation rather than talent. Jeanty ran behind a broken line that has since been rebuilt. Burrow’s counting stats were wrecked by a freak toe injury even as his rate stats stayed elite. Higgins was buried on the depth chart yet still led his team in touchdown grabs. Moore was stuck in a muddled Chicago offense before landing next to Josh Allen.
Target players whose price reflects last year’s noise rather than this year’s setup. Jeanty gives you locked-in volume with league-winning upside at the back of the first round. Burrow is a top-five quarterback ceiling at a discount born of injury fear. Higgins is a late-round lottery ticket with a real role. Moore is a WR1 projection selling at a WR3 tag. Build your board around gaps like these, and you give yourself the edge that wins leagues.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the best AFC players to target in fantasy in 2026?
Ashton Jeanty, Joe Burrow, Jayden Higgins, and DJ Moore stand out as AFC players to target in fantasy because each is priced below his ceiling. Jeanty offers a top-five running back path at a late-first-round cost, Burrow is a top-five quarterback returning healthy, Higgins is a late-round breakout with a red zone role, and Moore is a WR1 projection at a WR3 price.
Is Ashton Jeanty worth a first-round fantasy pick in 2026?
Yes. Jeanty carries a rare rookie floor of 321 touches, and his 3.7 yards per carry came behind one of the league’s worst lines. With Las Vegas adding All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum, a late-first-round ADP looks like a value with top-five running back upside.
Should I draft Joe Burrow after his 2025 injury?
His Grade 3 turf toe is healed, and his rate stats never dipped. Burrow threw for 1,809 yards with 17 touchdowns in just eight games, a top-five pace over a full season. The injury lowered his price without lowering his ceiling, which makes him a strong value for managers who wait on quarterback.
Is DJ Moore a good fantasy pick with the Bills?
Moore profiles as Josh Allen’s clear No. 1 target ahead of Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer, and he reunites with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Median projections near 84 catches, 1,134 yards, and eight touchdowns would land him in WR1 territory at a WR3 draft cost.
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