Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. Each week, we’ll break down the top fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and kicker to help you set the best possible lineup. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly guide is built to give you an edge.
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Quarterbacks to Start
Jaxson Dart NYG
Jaxson Dart returns this week after recovering from a concussion that kept him sidelined for two games, and his production earlier in the season makes him one of the most intriguing fantasy football starters of Week 13. When healthy, he’s been electric, averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game, a mark surpassed only by Josh Allen among quarterbacks with multiple starts. His dual-threat ability has been a major asset, highlighted by seven rushing touchdowns in seven starts and over 50 rushing yards in five of those outings. Even though the Giants want to reduce his designed runs after taking too many hits, his natural scrambling instincts still create valuable upside. With the Patriots struggling defensively against the pass, Dart walks into a matchup that should allow his explosiveness to shine.
This matchup sets up perfectly for managers looking for a high-ceiling start at quarterback, as the Patriots sit in the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns allowed while giving up the third-most passing scores since Week 8. Dart had scored at least 21.4 fantasy points in five straight games before his injury, making him one of the most consistent options at the position. With New England’s defense allowing three of the last four opposing quarterbacks to top 21 fantasy points, the opportunity is clearly there for him to produce. The combination of rushing upside, proven floor, and matchup advantage makes him a must-start in all formats. In a game where New York may be forced into catch-up mode, Dart projects as one of Week 13’s safest fantasy football quarterbacks.
Bo Nix DEN
Bo Nix enters Week 13 looking to bounce back after a three-game stretch without reaching 20 fantasy points, and the matchup against Washington gives him the perfect environment to do it. While his play has fluctuated throughout the season, his underlying efficiency metrics and usage suggest that positive regression is coming. Washington ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and has consistently allowed big games to opposing quarterbacks, making them one of the softest matchups in fantasy football. The Commanders also surrender the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, setting up Nix for a strong rebound performance. Dan Quinn’s unit has also been one of the least effective in generating pressure in recent weeks, giving Nix cleaner pockets to operate from. All indicators point to Nix being one of the most undervalued start candidates of the week.
This matchup gives Nix a clear pathway to 25-plus fantasy points, and he should be deployed confidently in one-quarterback formats. His high percentage of passing yards generated after the catch pairs well with Washington’s defensive weaknesses, giving him multiple avenues to accumulate production. The Commanders have also allowed numerous explosive plays through the air, and their inability to force turnovers or collapse the pocket further raises Nix’s floor. While his recent performances have been inconsistent, the statistical profile of this matchup aligns perfectly with what he does best. Managers looking for a fantasy football quarterback with both a stable baseline and breakout potential will find Nix firmly in the start category. This is the exact kind of spot where Nix has historically capitalized, making him one of Week 13’s clearest buy-back candidates.
Jacoby Brissett ARI
Jacoby Brissett continues to be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in fantasy football, and his production since taking over for the Cardinals has been nothing short of impressive. He has topped 18.7 fantasy points in six straight games, the longest active streak among all quarterbacks. His command of the offense has been exceptional, averaging 314.5 passing yards per game along with 11 touchdowns in his six starts. Brissett’s accuracy and composure in the short and intermediate areas of the field have elevated the passing game substantially. The Buccaneers have allowed 243.5 passing yards per game, and their recent defensive play trends heavily in Brissett’s favor.
The Buccaneers have also surrendered 18-plus fantasy points to three straight opposing quarterbacks, including massive outings from Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford. Brissett has been even hotter, scoring at least 20.7 points in six consecutive games, showing both volume and efficiency. Tampa Bay’s defense has been vulnerable both over the middle and deep, and Arizona has allowed Brissett to operate aggressively with little restriction. With a competitive, high-scoring environment expected, his path to another top-10 finish is clear. His rapport with Trey McBride, along with improved wide receiver play, gives him one of the safest floors of the week. For fantasy football managers looking for a reliable start, Brissett offers both stability and upside. All signs point to him continuing his strong stretch in a very favorable matchup.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Brock Purdy SF
Brock Purdy is coming off a rough outing against Carolina, throwing three interceptions and scoring just 9.3 fantasy points, and this week’s matchup against Cleveland only makes things more difficult. The Browns rank among the toughest defensive units in football, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Their pass rush has been dominant, leading the league in sack rate and ranking near the top in total pressures generated. Purdy has struggled historically when forced into high-pressure situations, and this matchup presents exactly that scenario. Their combination of tight coverage, heavy pressure, and ball-hawking tendencies leaves little margin for error. With no teams on bye, fantasy football managers have better options than forcing Purdy into their starting lineup.
This game projects as a low-scoring defensive battle, reducing Purdy’s touchdown equity and limiting his overall ceiling. Cleveland has allowed only three quarterbacks all season to hit 20 fantasy points, illustrating how few reliable paths to production exist in this matchup. With Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defensive front consistently generating havoc, Purdy is likely to spend much of the day avoiding pressure rather than attacking downfield. His fantasy value relies heavily on efficiency, but this is not the environment where efficiency tends to hold. While he remains serviceable in Superflex formats, he should be firmly benched in traditional leagues. The risk far outweighs the reward, given the defensive strength he’s up against. This is an easy sit call for Week 13.
Daniel Jones IND
Daniel Jones has revitalized his career in Indianapolis, but this is a week when fantasy football managers need to strongly consider sitting him. Despite showing flashes of efficiency and adding value on the ground, he now faces a Texans defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Houston just held Josh Allen to 8.1 fantasy points and has consistently shut down both pocket passers and mobile quarterbacks. Their pass rush is firing at a top-four rate, generating pressure without blitzing, which is particularly problematic for a quarterback dealing with a fractured fibula. While Jones played through the injury and handled 31 pass attempts last week, the matchup is significantly more punishing this time around. Houston’s combination of tight coverage, elite EPA allowed per dropback, and strong sack production makes this an extremely difficult spot. Jones enters the week with a lower floor than usual.
The Colts are likely to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor to mitigate the defensive pressure they expect to face, which further limits Jones’ upside. Over his last three games, he has averaged just 15.5 fantasy points with four touchdowns and four interceptions, and this matchup only amplifies the inconsistency. Even if he manages to run in a touchdown, the probabilities lean toward a low-volume, low-efficiency passing day. Houston’s secondary has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL and ranks in the top three in limiting passing yards. That leaves Jones projecting closer to a mid-tier QB2 than the QB7 numbers he has produced across the season. In one-quarterback formats, benching him is the safest possible decision. Fantasy football managers should only consider him in deeper Superflex setups.
Baker Mayfield TB
Baker Mayfield enters Week 13 battling a left shoulder AC joint sprain, and even if he suits up, he is not a recommended start. Playing through an injury on his non-throwing shoulder, which directly impacts his rushing upside and potential deep ball usage, as he aggravated it even more last week with the Hail Mary before halftime. His recent inconsistency only emphasizes the risk, as he has scored under 12 fantasy points in three of his last five games. While he has regressed to QB15 in PPG this year, his expected PPG sits at QB19 and suggests his QB2 performances this year are more of what is to come from Mayfield this year.
The matchup complicates things further, as Arizona ranks top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They rank among the best in the NFL at limiting passing touchdowns this season and have surrendered 20-plus points to only four passers all season, and Mayfield’s current form doesn’t suggest he’ll join that short list. Tampa Bay also figures to lean more heavily on the run game with Bucky Irving returning. It is always risky starting players with shoulder injuries because you never know what hit could knock them out of the game. It all adds up to a situation where Mayfield has a very limited fantasy ceiling and should not be started this week.
Running Backs to Start
Travis Etienne JAC
Travis Etienne continues to operate as the centerpiece of the Jaguars’ backfield, maintaining a strong hold on usage despite occasional concerns about Bhayshul Tuten cutting into his role. Last week, Etienne logged 15 carries for 86 yards and added three receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown on four targets while playing 65% of the snaps — his highest snap share since Week 2. He has handled 66% of Jacksonville’s RB carries and 65% of their RB targets on the season, ranking top ten in total backfield opportunity share. Etienne has also earned five of the team’s eight goal-line carries, an indicator of how the Jaguars trust him in scoring situations. Tennessee’s defense ranks bottom eight in fantasy points allowed to running backs and has surrendered the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league, giving up 13 through 12 weeks. Eight different running backs have scored at least 13.1 PPR points against this unit, and they enter Week 13 allowing explosive runs at an above-average rate.
Etienne is a strong start in fantasy football this week thanks to both a matchup advantage and sustained involvement in all phases of the Jaguars’ offense. His combination of 18+ touches in four straight games and Tennessee’s inability to stop explosive run plays makes him one of the safest bets on the slate. The Titans are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards, and their issues in short-yardage defense create a path to touchdown equity for Etienne. Fantasy football managers prioritizing secure volume and matchup alignment should feel confident deploying him. Etienne profiles as an RB1 this week and remains firmly locked into starting lineups.Â
Kenneth Walker SEA
Kenneth Walker has begun to separate from Zach Charbonnet over the past several weeks, regaining his status as the most explosive runner in Seattle’s offense. He sits at 147 carries for 677 yards and four touchdowns on the year, ranking top five among running backs in explosive run rate and 13th in yards per touch. Charbonnet’s workload has regressed dramatically from the early portion of the season, dropping from 14–17 touches per game down to a 6–13 range recently. Seattle enters Week 13 as 10.5-point favorites, creating a projected run-heavy game script that aligns with Walker’s early-down dominance. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered more than 30 rushing attempts per game over the last five weeks and has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards over its previous three matchups. With the Vikings potentially forced to start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback, Seattle could control the pace and possession early. Walker’s increasing snap share and efficiency metrics point toward an opportunity spike in this environment.
Walker is a strong start in fantasy football this week because the matchup and projected game script support a high-volume workload. If Seattle plays from ahead, Walker should clear 16–20 touches and maintain his explosive-play upside against a defense that has struggled recently to limit chunk gains. Minnesota’s run defense ranks below average in DVOA, and with Seattle trending toward a more ground-oriented approach when favored, Walker’s probability of finding the end zone rises. Fantasy football managers should view him as a safe RB2 with RB1 upside given the team context and his recent performance spike.
Breece Hall NYJ
Breece Hall enters Week 13 with a volatile fantasy profile, sitting at RB15 on the season but buoyed by a handful of explosive performances. The Jets offense has been inconsistent, but Hall has quietly averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game since Week 8, making him the RB7 over that span. Atlanta has been shredded on the ground recently, giving up 547 rushing yards on 119 carries (4.58 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns over their last four weeks. Pass-catching backs have also punished the Falcons, totaling 23 receptions for 197 yards and two touchdowns over that same period. Hall’s dual-threat skillset has been on display, with 181 rushing yards and 137 receiving yards on nine receptions across his last four games. Last week, despite rushing inefficiency (44 yards on 16 carries), he delivered 75 receiving yards on four catches. The Falcons’ defensive struggles align well with Hall’s ability to generate chunk plays as both a rusher and receiver.
Hall is a strong start in fantasy football this week due to his expanded receiving role and a matchup that boosts all-purpose backs. The Jets lack reliable playmakers outside of Hall, making him the centerpiece of their offense regardless of game script. Atlanta’s vulnerability to pass-catching running backs dramatically enhances his floor, while their declining run-defense efficiency provides upside. Fantasy football managers can confidently rely on his recent touch consistency, as he has 18+ touches in four consecutive games. Even with the Jets’ offensive unpredictability, Hall’s usage ensures bankable volume in a week where matchup correlation is highly favorable. He profiles as a top-12 running back and should be in all starting lineups.
Running Backs to Sit
Aaron Jones MIN
Aaron Jones has shown flashes of value since returning from injury in Week 8, posting at least 11.1 PPR points in three of his last four games. However, Minnesota’s offense continues to limit his ceiling, as he has averaged just 10.5 fantasy points per game in that stretch and scored only one touchdown. With Jordan Mason siphoning meaningful touches, Jones’ path to 15+ touches has been inconsistent, and Minnesota’s offensive injuries further complicate matters. The offensive line could be significantly weakened with Christian Darrisaw and Donovan Jackson both leaving Week 12’s game due to ankle injuries. The Seahawks pose one of the toughest matchups in football for opposing running backs, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards, just four rushing touchdowns, and a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. They also rank bottom two in explosive runs allowed and yards before contact. This defensive profile significantly reduces the likelihood of a breakaway play or efficiency spike for Jones.
Jones is a sit in fantasy football this week because the combination of matchup, offensive instability, and workload uncertainty makes him an extremely risky play. With undrafted rookie Max Brosmer potentially starting at quarterback, Seattle will likely stack the box and force Minnesota to throw. Jones’ chances of delivering a ceiling performance rely heavily on receiving work, which is too volatile to trust in a week without byes. Fantasy football managers should avoid banking on a touchdown against a defense that rarely allows them. The risk outweighs the reward, making Jones a low-floor option and better suited for the bench.
Tyrone Tracy Jr NYG
Tyrone Tracy Jr has carved out a meaningful role in the Giants’ backfield, logging 20 carries and four targets last week while playing 71% of the snaps. However, despite his recent surge, he still operates in a timeshare with Devin Singletary, who handled 14 carries in Week 12. The Giants enter Week 13 as 7.5-point underdogs with a low implied team total of 19.5 points, suggesting limited scoring chances and a likely negative game script. The Patriots present one of the league’s toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns and the second-fewest yards per carry. They have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs overall and consistently shut down early-down efficiency. Even at elevated volume, Tracy’s production becomes volatile when factoring in the split workload and hostile defensive environment. The Patriots’ home defensive splits are even more concerning, as only one running back has scored more than 13.1 PPR points against them this season.
Tracy is a sit in fantasy football this week because the matchup caps both his floor and ceiling in a way that makes him nearly impossible to trust. Even with solid usage, the Patriots’ defensive front severely limits rushing efficiency and reduces touchdown opportunities. Fantasy football managers must prioritize safe workloads in a week where all teams are active, and Tracy’s role is neither insulated nor supported by a favorable opponent. While Tracy’s long-term outlook is encouraging, he should remain on the bench this week given the defensive matchup and game environment.
Chris Rodriguez Jr WAS
Chris Rodriguez Jr has emerged as Washington’s lead early-down runner, handling 15 carries for 79 yards in his last appearance and scoring in two of his last three games. However, his lack of receiving involvement severely limits his weekly range of outcomes, as he has just one reception this entire season. Denver’s defense poses a difficult challenge, ranking fourth in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs and allowing only six rushing touchdowns all year. Washington’s backfield also remains somewhat fragmented, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt involved on early downs and Jeremy McNichols operating on passing plays. Rodriguez enters Week 13 ranked outside the top 35 in PPR formats despite heavy volume, illustrating how limited he becomes without scoring. Denver has also improved significantly in run defense since early-season struggles, reducing opponent efficiency and minimizing explosive plays. This combination creates a narrow path to production.
Rodriguez is a sit in fantasy this week because his profile is too touchdown-dependent to start with confidence in a difficult matchup. The Broncos rarely allow rushing touchdowns, and Rodriguez lacks the receiving volume necessary to buoy his fantasy football output in tougher games. Even if he leads the team in carries, the absence of pass-game involvement restricts his floor to low single-digit points whenever he doesn’t score. With Washington likely facing a competitive or negative game script, McNichols may see more snaps, diminishing Rodriguez’s value. Fantasy football managers should avoid starting him in Week 13 unless desperate for volume, as the matchup and role severely limit his upside.
Wide Receivers to Start
Michael Wilson ARI
Michael Wilson has transformed into one of the NFL’s most heavily utilized receivers over the last two weeks, commanding an absurd 33 targets — the most among all wide receivers over that span. His 25 receptions and 303 yards over those matchups give him an elite 3.58 yards per route run, while his 29.2% target share and 32.3% target-per-route-run rate both rank top-five leaguewide. Wilson’s average depth of target (aDOT) has risen over the last two games as well, showing that he’s not just compiling volume on short throws — he’s being used at every level of the field. His chemistry with Jacoby Brissett is undeniable, as Brissett has attempted 106 passes in the last two weeks, giving Wilson one of the most secure workloads in fantasy football. Even if Marvin Harrison Jr. returns, Wilson’s recent 55.3 fantasy points over the last two weeks speak for themselves.
This week’s matchup against the Buccaneers makes Wilson a top-tier start. Tampa Bay has allowed 39.93 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers over the last four weeks, the second-most in the league during that span. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for 159 yards and two touchdowns last week, and Tampa continues to bleed yards on intermediate and deep routes — areas Wilson has thrived in recently. If Harrison returns, Wilson still projects as a locked-in WR2 with WR1 upside; if Harrison sits, Wilson becomes an auto-start with top-eight potential. Greg Dortch remains a viable flex if Harrison misses again, given his 17.7 fantasy PPG over the last two weeks. Wilson is one of the hottest players in fantasy football and belongs in every lineup.
Troy Franklin DEN
Troy Franklin has quietly become Denver’s most efficient receiver over the past month, scoring at least 12.4 fantasy points in four of his last five games while averaging 2.12 yards per route run during that stretch. His red-zone dominance is astonishing: Franklin’s 14 red-zone targets rank 10th in the NFL, and he leads all Broncos players by a wide margin. Inside the 10-yard line, he’s converted four of seven targets — all touchdowns — showing elite scoring efficiency. While Courtland Sutton has been in a slump with under 10.7 PPR points in four straight and fewer than 30 receiving yards in two of those, Franklin has taken advantage with a 21% target share since Week 7. Denver ranks sixth in opponent pass attempts per game, and their neutral-game-script pass rate has quietly climbed each week with Bo Nix settling in. Franklin’s route participation has climbed into the mid-80s, making his role secure.
This is a smash start spot against Washington, the NFL’s worst pass defense by net yards allowed per attempt and third-worst in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The Commanders have allowed 12 receivers to score at least 12 PPR points, and multiple teams have produced two fantasy-viable WRs against them — a great sign for both Sutton and Franklin. Washington has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers over the last month, and Franklin runs more than 80% of his routes outside. Given his elite red-zone role, rising target momentum, and Washington’s inability to defend boundary receivers, Franklin carries legitimate top-20 upside this week. Start him confidently.
Khalil Shakir BUF
Khalil Shakir has become Buffalo’s most stable receiver, posting eight or more targets in three of his last four games and hitting at least 11.3 PPR points in four of his last five. His role as the primary slot receiver is secure with a slot-route rate over 70%, and he’s earned 2.10 yards per route run from the slot over the last month — top-10 among qualified receivers. Shakir thrives after the catch, ranking top-five in YAC per reception among all slot receivers since Week 8. His 10 targets, eight receptions, and 110 yards last week against Houston marked his most complete performance of the season, showcasing that Buffalo trusts him as a volume option. The addition of Brandin Cooks shouldn’t impact his usage, as Shakir still leads the team in slot snaps, targets per route run, and short-area conversion rate.
This is a perfect matchup for Shakir, as Pittsburgh allows the most yards, receptions, and fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Steelers are also top-five in yards allowed to slot receivers both on the season and since Week 8. Pittsburgh has given up the most YAC to slot receivers during that stretch, and Shakir ranks among the leaders in generating yards after the catch. Six receivers have scored at least 15.3 PPR points against Pittsburgh in the last four weeks, with five touchdowns surrendered. Given his recent volume, efficiency, and matchup alignment, Shakir is a strong WR2 start with real top-15 upside. He is the only trusted Bills receiver heading into Week 13 and should be in all lineups.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Deebo Samuel WAS
Deebo Samuel’s 2025 season continues to be defined by volatility, as he has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games and averages fewer than six fantasy points in games without a touchdown. His target share drops dramatically when Terry McLaurin plays, falling from 24% in games without McLaurin to just 15% in games with him. Samuel also has one of the lowest air-yard totals among starting receivers, posting an aDOT under 6.0 yards, which limits his yardage ceiling. The Commanders’ offense has struggled to sustain drives, and Deebo has seen fewer than six targets in three of his last four full games.
This matchup is a bottom-tier spot for Samuel, as Denver allows the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts and has surrendered just two receiving touchdowns to the position all season. The Broncos are top-five in yards allowed per target and have been a nightmare matchup for opposing offenses this year. When McLaurin plays, Samuel has totaled just 9.1 combined PPR points in their last two games together. This game projects as one of the lowest-scoring of the week, and Washington’s offensive line is severely mismatched against Denver’s top-tier pass rush. Samuel is a sit across all standard formats, and even in three-WR leagues, he offers limited upside.
Michael Pittman Jr IND
Michael Pittman Jr. has been consistent this year, scoring at least 13.7 PPR points in four of his last five games, but this is one of the worst possible matchups for him. Houston allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and owns the league’s No. 1 defensive rankings in both passer rating allowed and completion percentage allowed to wideouts. They’ve given up just six total receiving touchdowns to receivers all season, and only five WRs have reached 12+ PPR points against them. Pittman himself has struggled historically in this spot, posting fewer than 35 yards in both matchups last season and averaging just 9.4 or fewer fantasy points in his last three games vs. Houston. His aDOT has dipped in recent weeks as the Colts have leaned more on short passing and the run game, limiting his ceiling further.
The Texans are particularly strong on perimeter coverage, allowing the fewest deep-passing yards to outside receivers, which directly caps Pittman’s ability to generate explosive plays. If Indianapolis follows the expected run-heavy script with Jonathan Taylor, Pittman projects for lower volume than usual. Alec Pierce is also a sit, as he has topped 50 yards against Houston just once in six career attempts. For Pittman, his floor keeps him in consideration in deep formats, but he’s a recommended sit in standard 2-WR lineups. The matchup is simply too restrictive to expect a ceiling game.
Ricky Pearsall SF
Ricky Pearsall draws one of the most difficult defensive matchups of the entire season, as the Cleveland Browns have allowed just 23.8 fantasy points per game to wide receivers since Week 5 — the toughest in the league over that span. Over their last four games, Cleveland has tightened even further, surrendering only 20.7 fantasy points per game to the position and giving up just 28 receptions total during that stretch. Pearsall’s involvement last week was minimal, recording only four targets (fourth-most on the team) and finishing with six yards. His route participation has dipped as the 49ers consolidate targets around Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings. Pearsall ranks outside the top five on the team in red-zone usage and has posted under 1.3 yards per route run in three straight games.
Cleveland’s defense presents nearly no path for a breakout, allowing the fewest receptions and the fewest yards to receivers since Week 8. Their sticky perimeter coverage forces quarterbacks to funnel targets to tight ends and running backs — areas where San Francisco already features Kittle and McCaffrey heavily. Pearsall’s low target share and role as the team’s third or fourth option make him extremely volatile in a matchup with virtually no margin for error. The Browns have allowed only two receiving touchdowns across their last seven games, further capping Pearsall’s scoring probability. He’s an easy sit and belongs on benches across all formats this week.
Tight Ends to Start
Juwan Johnson NO
Juwan Johnson has been one of the most reliable tight ends this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in eight of 11 games and in each of his last five. Since Week 7, he’s averaged 13 fantasy points per game while turning 30 targets into 23 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns. Even last week, he delivered 10.6 PPR points on six catches for 46 yards, maintaining his steady floor. With Alvin Kamara sidelined and Taysom Hill absorbing more backfield work, Johnson’s role has become even more essential. Miami presents an exceptional matchup for him, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA while allowing seven touchdowns, 760 yards, and 16.8 fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. Over the last four weeks alone, they’ve given up 20.6 PPG, 310 yards, and four touchdowns to the position. All signs point toward Johnson entering Week 13 with one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the slate.
Given Johnson’s consistent production and Miami’s collapse against tight ends, he’s a must-start fantasy option with legitimate top-five upside. Seven tight ends have already posted at least 10.3 PPR points against the Dolphins, and Johnson’s recent streak suggests he should join that group comfortably. The usage trend with Tyler Shough, averaging 12.9 PPR points in three games together, reinforces the trustworthiness of his role. Miami struggles not only against tight ends but also in the red zone, where Johnson has benefited from stable involvement. With the matchup, volume, and scoring trends all aligned, he belongs in fantasy lineups everywhere in Week 13.
AJ Barner SEA
AJ Barner has quietly carved out a meaningful role in Seattle’s offense, accounting for a 72% route share and an 18% target share heading into last week. Over the last two games, he’s been targeted 15 times by Sam Darnold, converting those into 12 receptions for 88 yards. His usage has spiked precisely when Seattle needed a second option behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he currently ranks second on the team in targets since Week 5. The Vikings have been one of the more forgiving defenses to tight ends this season, allowing 64 receptions, 613 yards, and six touchdowns, good for 14.5 fantasy PPG allowed. They’ve also struggled heavily over the last four weeks, giving up 19.55 PPG, 332 yards, and three touchdowns to the position. This matchup creates one of the clearest paths to production Barner has seen all year.
From a fantasy perspective, Barner enters Week 13 as a strong streaming option and a start in deeper formats. Minnesota’s recent defensive regression against tight ends aligns perfectly with Barner’s increased workload, making him one of the most intriguing plays of the week. If his target volume remains steady, he offers both a reliable floor and a pathway to a spike week. Managers should also note his elite playoff schedule, with matchups against the Colts, Rams, and Panthers, each ranking among the most vulnerable defenses to tight ends in the second half. For anyone streaming the position weekly, this is a rare chance to get ahead of the curve and lock in a high-upside option.
Dalton Schultz HOU
Dalton Schultz’s Week 12 dud against Buffalo was expected, given that the Bills rank No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Prior to that, he had scored at least 11.1 PPR points in three straight games and in five of his last six. Since Week 3, Schultz has posted an 18.2% target share, 48.9 receiving yards per game, 1.60 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Over that nine-game span, he’s seen six red-zone targets and five deep targets while averaging 10.7 PPR points. The Texans rely on his intermediate presence to stabilize the passing attack, and his usage has remained extremely consistent when the matchup is favorable. This week, everything tilts in his favor.
The Colts are one of the best matchups in all of fantasy for tight ends, allowing the second-most receiving yards, fifth-most fantasy points, and six double-digit TE games this season. Five different tight ends have cleared at least 10 PPR points against Indianapolis, and the defense continues to struggle in the middle of the field. Schultz’s usage, red-zone involvement, and matchup all point toward a strong rebound performance. With Houston leaning heavily on him when games remain competitive, he should be treated as a locked-in start and a top-10 option in Week 13. Fantasy managers should confidently put him back in lineups.
Tight Ends to Sit
Zach Ertz WAS
Zach Ertz has not topped 10 fantasy points in any of his five games with Marcus Mariota, averaging just 7.2 PPG in that span. His target share has dipped by 3% with Mariota under center, and despite ranking third in air yards, third in ADOT, and sixth in target share among tight ends for the season, he has failed to convert that usage into production. He has topped 50 yards just twice all year and hasn’t found the end zone in the second half of the season. Over his last three games, Ertz has only 12 catches for 142 scoreless yards on 17 targets. While Denver can be vulnerable after the catch, Ertz ranks just 40th among tight ends in YAC, limiting his ability to exploit that weakness.
The Broncos have held tight ends in check all season, allowing just four touchdowns to the position and only one player to surpass 100 receiving yards. No player has scored more than one touchdown against Denver this year, making this an awful matchup for a touchdown-dependent tight end. Given Ertz’s cold streak, diminishing usage, and lack of efficiency, there’s no reason to force him into lineups. Better streaming options exist across every platform this week. Ertz remains a clear sit in Week 13.
Hunter Henry NE
Hunter Henry erupted for 24.5 fantasy points last week with a 7/115/1 performance against Cincinnati — but that was a pure matchup-driven outlier. Before that, Henry was held under 9.1 PPR points for seven straight games and managed just 21 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns from Weeks 4–11. His target volume, while stable, rarely translated into meaningful production due to New England’s inconsistency in who they target in the passing game. The Giants have been one of the strongest defenses against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per target and eighth-fewest yards per game to the position. Only four tight ends have scored double digits against New York all year. Even last week’s performance isn’t enough to erase months of volatility.
The matchup pushes Henry back into sit territory, as the Giants have allowed only two tight ends to exceed 11.6 PPR points all season. While he remains a viable desperation option in very deep leagues, he should not be started in standard formats. His Week 12 explosion was matchup-inflated, and this week brings a major downgrade. Fantasy managers should avoid chasing points and keep Henry on the bench.
Kyle Pitts ATL
Kyle Pitts continues to struggle through one of the most frustrating stretches of his career, battling inefficiency, low target volume, and a lack of red-zone usage after a strong start to the season. Despite Atlanta’s thin receiving corps, Pitts has not been able to translate opportunities into meaningful production, recording consecutive games with minimal yardage. He has now scored under 8 points in four straight games and has not seen a red zone target since Week 9. His involvement has not increased even when Drake London has missed time, highlighting concerns about his place in the offensive hierarchy. Drops and missed opportunities have also plagued him, directly contributing to stalled drives and turnovers. Pitts has not found the end zone since early in the season, making each week feel increasingly volatile.
For fantasy football purposes, Pitts is a clear sit this week due to his declining usage and an unforgiving matchup with the Jets. New York has allowed very little production to tight ends, only allowing 1 touchdown since Week 7. Given Pitts’ recent performances and Atlanta’s unwillingness to consistently feature him, there is no stable path to a strong fantasy outing. The matchup amplifies all the concerns already attached to his profile. Fantasy managers should steer away from placing him in starting lineups, as the risks far outweigh any potential reward.
DEF to Start
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are one of the strongest defensive starts of Week 13 thanks to a matchup against a Raiders offense that continues to implode. Las Vegas has allowed 41 sacks, committed 16 giveaways, and ranks dead last in scoring at just 15 points per game. Geno Smith has been sacked 20 times across his last three games, and he already threw three interceptions against the Chargers earlier this season. Los Angeles has also recorded three or more sacks in three of its last four games, showing improved pass-rush consistency. Coming off a well-timed bye, this unit should be fresh and prepared to take advantage of a vulnerable offensive line. With all the matchup metrics pointing in their favor, the Chargers DST carries legitimate top-five upside this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a strong start this week thanks to a matchup against a Titans offense that has been a fantasy cheat code for opposing defenses. Tennessee has allowed a league-high 45 sacks while ranking last in total yards and bottom-three in scoring. Cam Ward has flashed talent, but he continues to take sacks at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Jacksonville’s defense has heated up recently, recording 13 sacks in their last four games after producing just eight in their first seven. The Titans have also allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs, making this an ideal streaming spot. With improved pass-rushing momentum and a premium matchup, the Jaguars DST should deliver another strong fantasy outing.
DEF to Sit
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings may rank well in real-life total defense, but their production hasn’t translated to fantasy success. Since a huge 30-point performance in Week 3, they’ve surpassed three fantasy points only once. Their defense has just two takeaways across their last eight games, severely limiting upside. This week’s matchup against Seattle is one of the worst possible scenarios. The Seahawks average 32.6 points per game at home and have surrendered only four sacks in five games at Lumen Field. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Sam Darnold playing efficient football, Minnesota’s defense is far too risky to start.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ defense has been strong against the run and elite in takeaways, but the matchup with Buffalo makes them an automatic sit. Josh Allen leads a top-five scoring offense that averages 28.3 points per game. Pittsburgh has struggled badly in pass coverage, allowing 277 or more passing yards in recent contests. The Bills have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, making this a low-upside spot. Chasing last week’s Texans production against Buffalo would be a major mistake. Given Pittsburgh’s weaknesses in the secondary, this is not a matchup to test.
Kickers to Start
Cam Little JAC
Cam Little remains one of the most consistent fantasy kickers heading into Week 13. He has scored at least 13 fantasy points in three of his last four games, including a strong performance against Arizona. His elite range and Jacksonville’s improving red-zone efficiency provide a reliable floor every week. The Titans have surrendered the third-most points per game to road kickers, creating extra opportunity. Six opposing kickers have scored at least nine points against Tennessee this season. With volume and matchup both in his favor, Little is an easy start across all formats.
Cairo Santos CHI
Cairo Santos enters Week 13 as one of the safest kicking options in fantasy football. He has scored at least eight points in five of his last six games, showcasing outstanding reliability. The Bears offense continues to offer steady drives, giving Santos consistent opportunities. His matchup against the Eagles is extremely favorable, as Philadelphia has allowed nearly 10 fantasy points per game to visiting kickers. All but one road kicker has scored at least eight points against them this season. With ideal conditions and dependable usage, Santos should deliver another strong fantasy outing.
Kickers to Sit
Michael Badgely IND
Michael Badgley has struggled to produce meaningful fantasy value during his time with the Colts. He has scored single digits in five of his six games, offering little upside. This week’s matchup against the Texans is one of the toughest for any kicker. Houston has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing kickers this season. Only three kickers have surpassed seven points against them, making volume a major concern. With limited scoring opportunities expected, Badgley belongs firmly on the bench.
Will Reichard MIN
Will Reichard has flashed upside at times, but Week 13 presents one of his toughest matchups. The Seahawks allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to kickers this season. Their defense tightens in the red zone, often eliminating field-goal chances entirely. Only three opposing kickers have scored more than seven points against Seattle. While Reichard has been efficient, efficiency doesn’t outweigh limited opportunity. With the matchup stacked against him, he should not be started this week.
