Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. Each week, we’ll break down the top fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and kicker to help you set the best possible lineup. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly guide is built to give you an edge.
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Start or Sit Justin Jefferson?
Justin Jefferson remains one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and despite some inconsistency this season, he continues to see elite volume and opportunity. In eight games with J.J. McCarthy under center, Jefferson has recorded 43.9 receiving yards per game. The silver lining though, is that the usage is great, including a 29.1% target share, 34.7% first-read share, and 11 red zone targets during that stretch. Last week, Jefferson nearly had two touchdowns, but one was called back by penalty, and the other slipped through his hands, highlighting that he remains a high-upside play even if results haven’t fully materialized with his usage. He has failed to reach 5.0 fantasy points in three straight games and hasn’t exceeded 11.1 points in six consecutive contests, showing the disconnect between talent and production so far this season.
The Vikings face the Giants this week, a team that has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers and ranks 13th in receiving yards per game allowed and 12th in PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts since Week 10. Jefferson continues to be targeted at the same rate as top receivers, keeping him central to Minnesota’s passing attack. With a favorable matchup on tap, the opportunity for a rebound game is there. Fantasy managers should roll him out in the WR2 or flex spot, trusting that the talent and opportunity will translate. While the results haven’t always been there, Jefferson’s target share, route participation, and red-zone usage make him a strong bet for a productive outing.
Quarterbacks to Start
Jared Goff DET
Jared Goff enters this matchup playing some of his best football of the season, coming off a Week 15 performance where he threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams. That marked his third game with at least 300 passing yards over his last four outings, a stretch in which he has averaged over 23 fantasy football points per game. Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling, Goff has benefitted from increased offensive aggression, throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of six games while ranking near the top of the league in yards per attempt. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he currently sits third in passing yards per game and second in passing touchdowns, underscoring how productive this offense has become through the air. With the Lions still fighting for playoff positioning and their defense struggling, Goff’s passing volume has been perfect for fantasy production.
The matchup also supports keeping Goff firmly in fantasy football lineups this week, making him a clear start against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have given up at least 19 points to the position seven times this season. Since Week 8, quarterbacks have averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game against Pittsburgh, with three of the past four surpassing 20 points. While the Steelers rank middle-of-the-pack in yards per attempt allowed since Week 11, they are still fourth in passing yards surrendered overall, a profile that aligns well with Goff’s volume-based production. His ability to sustain drives and capitalize in the red zone keeps his weekly floor intact. Given the efficiency metrics and game environment, Goff remains a strong start this week.
Jacoby Brissett ARI
Jacoby Brissett’s production since taking over as Arizona’s starter in Week 6 has been remarkably consistent, making him one of the most reliable quarterbacks in fantasy football. Across nine starts, he has scored at least 18 fantasy points every single week, including three outings above 25 points. Brissett has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of those nine games while eclipsing 300 passing yards four times, a volume profile rarely found on the waiver wire in the middle of the season. Since Week 6, he ranks first among all quarterbacks in passing yards per game and second in passing touchdowns, fueled by Arizona’s pass-heavy approach. His workload stands out even more when noting that he leads the league in dropbacks over that span, creating weekly opportunity regardless of matchup. Even in tougher spots, Brissett has maintained efficiency through sheer volume and aggressive play-calling.
That volume-driven profile makes Brissett an easy start in Week 16 against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and sixth-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks since Week 10, a combination that has led to several high-end fantasy performances. Over the past five games, four opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 20 fantasy points against this defense. Brissett proved last week that he can succeed even in elite matchups by becoming the first quarterback to throw three touchdowns against Houston and finish as a top-12 option versus that defense. Since Week 6, only Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence have scored more total fantasy points at the position. With Atlanta struggling and Brissett on fire, he profiles as a locked-in start for fantasy football managers chasing a championship.
Brock Purdy SF
Since returning in Week 11, Brock Purdy has quietly re-established himself as a high-efficiency fantasy football quarterback. Over that stretch, he has posted two QB1 finishes while ranking eighth in passing touchdowns among qualifying quarterbacks. Purdy’s accuracy metrics support the production, as he sits inside the top 15 in both highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate since his return. San Francisco’s offensive structure allows Purdy to operate comfortably in the intermediate areas of the field, where timing and anticipation generate chunk plays. His Week 15 performance against Tennessee showcased that upside, as he totaled over 26 fantasy points in one of his most complete games of the season.
This week’s matchup positions Purdy for a strong start against Indianapolis. Since Week 11, the Colts have allowed the second-most passing yards per game while ranking outside the top 15 in pressure rate, giving quarterbacks time to attack downfield. Injuries in the secondary have further weakened Indianapolis, creating exploitable coverage mismatches across the middle of the field. Quarterbacks have consistently produced against this defense the Colts this season, and it will be no different for Purdy this week. Purdy’s ability to distribute the ball efficiently fits well against a unit that allows explosive pass plays at a high rate. Given his recent QB1 finishes and the matchup profile, Purdy belongs firmly in starting lineups this week.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Trevor Lawrence JAC
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in fantasy football since the Week 8 bye, producing several elite performances during that span. He enters Week 16 having scored at least 17 fantasy points in four consecutive games, including a massive 44-plus point explosion in Week 15. Since Week 9, Lawrence ranks near the top of the league in passing touchdowns and yards per attempt, reflecting his growth as a passer. His efficiency metrics also stand out, with top-15 rankings in highly accurate throw rate after struggling to reach the top 25 to open the season. However, two of his lowest-scoring games during this stretch came against top-tier defenses that limited explosive passing plays. Those performances provide important context when evaluating his upcoming matchup.
That context makes Lawrence a difficult start this week, pushing him into sit territory against Denver. The Broncos have allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Since Week 11, Denver ranks inside the top 12 in yards per attempt allowed, passer rating allowed, and success rate per dropback. Only one quarterback has scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Broncos over their past seven games, and only one has done so at Denver all season. Lawrence’s recent spike weeks came against softer matchups that allowed volume and red-zone success. In standard one-quarterback leagues, this is a spot to sit Lawrence and avoid chasing last week’s production.
Marcus Mariota WAS
Marcus Mariota has provided mixed results since taking over as Washington’s starter, combining rushing production with inconsistent passing efficiency. As a starter, he has averaged over six rushing attempts per game and nearly 37 rushing yards, giving him a modest fantasy football floor. His season includes three QB1 finishes, largely driven by games where his legs contributed significantly to his total output. However, his passing metrics tell a less stable story, as he ranks outside the top 25 in both accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. Mariota’s Week 15 performance against the Giants resulted in fewer than 17 fantasy points despite facing a favorable defense. That inconsistency becomes more concerning against stronger opponents.
This matchup pushes Mariota into sit consideration for fantasy football managers outside of Superflex formats. Philadelphia has been one of the most restrictive defenses against quarterbacks, allowing just one passer to score more than 14 fantasy points over their last six games. Since Week 11, the Eagles rank top 10 in yards per attempt allowed, passing yards per game, and CPOE. While Mariota’s rushing upside always offers some appeal, Philadelphia has consistently limited quarterback scrambling lanes. His path to a usable fantasy performance would require either multiple rushing scores or unexpected passing efficiency. In standard leagues, Mariota is best left on the bench this week.
Jaxson Dart NYG
Jaxson Dart has been one of the most productive fantasy football quarterbacks since Week 4, largely because of his rushing volume and red-zone usage. Over that span, he has averaged more than seven rushing attempts and 44 rushing yards per game while scoring seven times on the ground. His rushing output has helped him maintain a high fantasy floor despite middling passing efficiency metrics. Dart ranks outside the top 25 in yards per attempt and accurate throw rate, highlighting his reliance on athleticism rather than precision. Even so, he has failed to reach 15.6 fantasy points only once in nine starts, demonstrating consistent weekly involvement. That consistency, however, is about to be tested.
Minnesota presents one of the toughest matchups in fantasy football, making Dart a recommended sit in Week 16. The Vikings have not allowed a passing touchdown since Week 11 and have held six straight quarterbacks under 19 fantasy points. During that span, they have surrendered just one passing touchdown total and limited even elite quarterbacks to modest outputs. Minnesota also ranks top 10 in limiting quarterback rushing yards, directly attacking Dart’s primary fantasy strength. Brian Flores’ defense has allowed the third-lowest passer rating and completion percentage since Week 10. While Dart always carries rushing upside, this matchup makes him a risky play best avoided in favor of safer starts.
Running Backs to Start
Rico Dowdle CAR
Last week, Rico Dowdle logged 17 touches and totaled 12.4 fantasy points, finishing ahead of Chuba Hubbard in snaps and opportunities. Over the last two games, Dowdle has averaged 18.5 touches and 66.5 total yards while maintaining a 50.8% snap rate and a 32.7% route share. Among 48 qualifying running backs this season, he ranks 15th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt, highlighting his ability to generate meaningful gains even in a split backfield. Carolina faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed running backs to hit 15-plus fantasy points in 11 games this year, including six of the past six weeks. The Buccaneers rank 10th in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backs and struggle through the passing game, giving up the most receiving yards to the position both on the season and since Week 11. Dowdle’s workload and efficiency, combined with a favorable matchup, make him a strong RB2 candidate this week.
The matchup against Tampa Bay provides a solid opportunity for Dowdle to maintain his production despite recent struggles in rushing efficiency. He has recorded a yards-per-carry mark of 3.2 or less in four of his past five games, but his fantasy output has remained consistent, scoring at least 11.4 PPR points in five of his last six outings. Carolina’s offensive game plan has leaned on both backs, but Dowdle’s red zone involvement and receiving opportunities give him a safer floor. The Buccaneers allow 1.5 yards before contact per carry, ranking in the bottom five in the NFL, which could lead to home-run plays for a back who excels after contact. Dowdle has also been a factor in the passing game, enhancing his fantasy ceiling against a defense that struggles to defend backs out of the backfield. With playoff implications on the line, the Panthers are likely to give him ample work, keeping him firmly in RB2 territory. His combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup makes him a reliable option for Week 16.
Aaron Jones MIN
Aaron Jones has been underwhelming in recent weeks, producing single-digit fantasy outputs in four straight games, but a favorable matchup against the Giants could reverse his fortunes. Since Week 14, Jones has averaged 14.5 touches and 70.5 total yards per game while commanding a 51.3% snap rate and a 45.5% route share. He has led the backfield in touches but has seen limited goal-line work, with only two red zone carries over the past two games compared to Jordan Mason’s six. Statistically, the Giants have been one of the NFL’s worst run defenses since Week 11, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt. Over the past seven games, nine opposing running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Giants, reinforcing the attractiveness of this matchup.
Jones’ usage profile and the Giants’ defensive weaknesses make him a solid RB2 option this week. Despite his recent low-scoring stretch, his volume remains intact, and his ability to produce both on the ground and through the air gives him a safe floor. The Giants have allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per carry and 2.2 yards before contact per rush since Week 11, ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate and overall rushing defense. While Jones has yet to find the end zone since Week 10, a breakout touchdown or big play is plausible given the matchup. He continues to operate ahead of Jordan Mason in passing situations, which is crucial in PPR formats. His floor is safer than many backs on the board in that RB3 range, while the ceiling remains meaningful if he breaks a long run or finds the end zone.
Quinshon Judkins CLE
Quinshon Judkins has seen modest production on the ground recently, but his role in the passing game has given him a floor in PPR formats. He has received at least three targets in each of the past three games, including a season-high four last week. Judkins has averaged 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards while ranking 13th in snap share and 16th in weight opportunities this season. The volume has been there, but he is not breaking off big runs consistently, as he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate. The rookie has already shown upside with multi-touchdown games earlier in the season, but his floor is more reliant on the matchup. Buffalo’s run defense has allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most touchdowns to backs this year, while ranking among the bottom three in explosive run rate allowed. This creates a high-upside spot for Judkins to post RB2 numbers at home in Week 16.
Buffalo’s defensive struggles against the run have been further amplified in recent weeks. Since Week 11, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-highest rushing success rate. Several running backs have scored multiple touchdowns in recent matchups against Buffalo, indicating that even a moderate workload can translate into meaningful fantasy points. Judkins had a difficult outing against Chicago with just 17 total yards on 15 touches, but the matchup against Buffalo offers redemption. The Bills have surrendered five rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past three games, highlighting their vulnerability near the goal line. Judkins’ role in both the rushing and passing game gives him a solid floor, and the matchup enhances his upside potential. If he finds the end zone or breaks a long play, he could easily post an RB2 stat line. Fantasy managers can expect a bounce-back performance this week.
Running Backs to Sit
Ashton Jeanty LV
Ashton Jeanty has struggled in recent weeks, producing just 14 combined fantasy points in his last two games, including a shutout loss against the Eagles. Over that span, he has been limited in both rushing volume and efficiency, averaging fewer than 35 yards in three of his last four games. Jeanty has a decent usage profile with 17.8 touches and 69 total yards per game, ranking sixth in snap share and second in opportunity share among 43 qualifying backs. Despite this, Houston’s defense has been stingy against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry in 2025 and ranking top 10 in limiting fantasy points to opposing backs over the past five weeks. Jeanty’s production through the air has also dropped, totaling just 15 yards on 10 targets across his last two games. With volume and efficiency both capped, Jeanty faces a challenging matchup in Week 16.
Houston’s defensive profile suggests that Jeanty may struggle again this week. Since Week 11, the Texans rank fourth-fewest in rushing yards allowed, third-lowest in missed tackle rate, and fourth-fewest in yards before contact per carry. They have also allowed just two total touchdowns to running backs over the last five weeks. While Geno Smith’s potential return may marginally improve offensive efficiency, the Raiders’ offense is unlikely to generate enough opportunities for Jeanty to produce reliably. His previous games against Denver and Philadelphia underscore the difficulty of this matchup, with a combined 14 fantasy points over two outings. Jeanty is now more of a low-ceiling flex rather than a starter-level running back.
Tony Pollard TEN
Tony Pollard has been extremely productive over the past two weeks, totaling 46.3 fantasy points and three touchdowns, but he faces a tough matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16. Since Week 14, he has averaged 20 touches and 135.5 total yards per game while logging a 56.3% snap rate. His production has come largely on the ground, with minimal involvement in the passing game—only two targets over the past two weeks. Kansas City ranks among the NFL’s stingiest defenses against running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest yards after contact, and bottom-five in explosive run rate since Week 11. Only seven running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Chiefs this season, limiting Pollard’s upside. While he is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, this matchup is more likely to cap his production than extend it.
Pollard’s floor remains reasonable, but the ceiling is limited against Kansas City. Volume alone may not be enough to generate a strong fantasy day, especially without a passing game boost. The matchup is risk-heavy, as the Chiefs consistently prevent backs from reaching double-digit points, making Pollard a candidate for a flex rather than a top-two RB option. Even with his hot streak over the past two weeks, this game likely favors safer RB2 or bench options. Fantasy managers should temper expectations and prepare for a performance like he had before his hot stretch.
Omarion Hampton LAC
Omarion Hampton has seen limited usage since returning from injury, averaging 15.5 touches and 66 total yards per game. His snap rate sits at 33.8% with only a 17.6% route share and 5.5% target share, limiting his involvement in the passing game. Hampton has recorded six red zone rushing attempts over two games, but his efficiency has been low, with just 1.25 yards after contact per attempt and an 11% missed tackle rate. Dallas has been a stout run defense since Week 11, ranking second-fewest in rushing yards allowed per game and limiting yards before and after contact for backs. While Hampton has shown upside with previous 20-point games early on this season, recent returns have been modest, posting 7.5 and 14.7 fantasy points over two games. His overall role is limited right now with Kimani Vidal still heavily involved.
Hampton’s recent workload and efficiency metrics indicate he is best viewed as a low-end flex this week. Dallas has consistently shut down opposing backs, holding multiple players in check outside of Jahmyr Gibbs over the last five weeks. Even with touchdowns, Hampton is unlikely to match prior high-end fantasy outputs given the defense’s strength and his limited passing role. While he has scored in past games, his floor is volatile due to both snap share and touches. With the Chargers leaning on multiple backs and Dallas maintaining a stingy front, Hampton’s upside is capped, and fantasy managers should seek higher-floor options. He can contribute but is far from a reliable RB2 play this week.
Wide Receivers to Start
Ladd McConkey LAC
Ladd McConkey has struggled over the past month, scoring 4.3 PPR points or fewer in three of his last four games and totaling just 6.2 points in his past two outings. Over the last six weeks, McConkey has seen both his target share and 1st read share dip below 18% which has resulted in the lack of production. Despite the slump, McConkey has upside this week against Dallas, which has allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns to opposing receivers over the last month. Eight wideouts have scored at least 11.4 PPR points against Dallas in the past five games, combining for eight touchdowns, highlighting the volume-friendly environment. With Quentin Johnston (groin) likely sidelined, McConkey could see an increase in targets, improving his fantasy floor.
Dallas’ defense has been vulnerable to slot receivers specifically, allowing the tenth-most PPR points per target and seventh-most receiving yards per game since Week 10. Given the matchup, he is viable as a WR2/flex option for the fantasy semifinals. While McConkey’s recent output has been disappointing, the Cowboys’ defensive profile sets up an opportunity for him to regain his form. Fantasy managers can reasonably expect him to flirt with top-18 production this week. His efficiency numbers, while low, could be boosted by volume in a game that has scoring potential for the Chargers.
DK Metcalf PIT
DK Metcalf has scored at least 14.4 PPR points in three of his last four games, showing consistent production despite a minor midseason dip. Over the last eight weeks, Detroit has allowed the second-most points to wide receivers, including perimeter targets, making this a favorable matchup for Metcalf. He ranks WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 21.5% target share, 57.7 receiving yards per game, and a 28% first-read share, reflecting steady involvement in the Steelers’ passing game. Metcalf also leads the Steelers with 13 red-zone targets and 16 deep targets this season, highlighting his role in both high-leverage areas and explosive plays. In his past two games against Baltimore and Miami, he had 10 catches for 203 yards and a touchdown, suggesting he can handle high-volume matchups.
Detroit has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers since Week 10, making Metcalf a strong WR2/flex play. With consistent target volume and red-zone opportunity, he has the potential to build on his recent streak of 14-plus PPR point games. The matchup against the Lions provides a chance for Metcalf to exploit a defense that has allowed eight receivers to score at least 12 PPR points in the past four games. Fantasy managers can feel confident relying on his combination of volume, athleticism, and efficiency in what appears to be a high-scoring game. His recent usage and historical performance against similar defenses set him up for success in Week 16.
Jauan Jennings SF
Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been a reliable option as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 28% 1st read share. He has capitalized on red-zone and deep opportunities, with nine red-zone targets and four deep targets leading to six touchdowns over his last six games. In Week 15 against Tennessee, Jennings caught three passes for 37 yards and two scores, demonstrating his ability to convert limited looks into high-value fantasy production. Jennings has scored in five of his past six games, including three consecutive weeks with a touchdown, proving his consistency in finding the end zone. With Ricky Pearsall (ankle) likely out for San Francisco, Jennings could see an increase in target share, further boosting his fantasy floor and ceiling.
The Colts’ defense has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 10, providing an exploitable matchup. The Colts have allowed nine different receivers to score at least 11.5 PPR points over their last five games, highlighting the opportunity for good production. Jennings’s floor has been 9.4 points in the last six weeks, and with the favorable matchup, it makes his ceiling enticing. Fantasy managers can expect Jennings to flirt with WR2 production again this week, especially if Ricky Pearsall is unable to suit up.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Jaylen Waddle MIA
Jaylen Waddle has struggled in recent weeks, scoring 8.2 PPR points or fewer in three of his past four games. Since Week 10, Miami’s per-route numbers remain strong, but a shift to a run-first approach has decreased his passing volume and weekly ceiling. Over his last five games, Waddle has averaged 50.4 receiving yards on a 27.4% target share and a 35.6% first-read share, totaling only 6.2 targets per game despite some elite usage numbers. He has had just two red-zone targets and seven deep targets during that span, limiting his scoring opportunities. With Miami utilizing the run game more and Waddle’s lack of production in the red zone, it has resulted in less production. With rookie Quinn Ewers starting under center, there is further uncertainty this week.
Cincinnati has allowed just one receiver to score double-digit PPR points in each of its past five games, ranking fifth-fewest in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Waddle is likely to face shadow coverage from DJ Turner this week, who has effectively contained high-profile wideouts this season. Waddle’s path to a productive game is hindered by both the matchup and the quarterback situation, making him a risky WR2 at best. Fantasy managers should be cautious starting him, as his low floor could negatively impact playoff performance. This week, Waddle profiles better as a bench option rather than a lineup lock.
Stefon Diggs NE
Stefon Diggs has been inconsistent over the past three games, combining for only 15.2 PPR points on eight catches for 72 yards and no touchdowns. His route participation and target share have dipped, with a 58.6% route share, 13% target share, and 17.6% first-read share last week, translating to low WR3-level usage. Since Week 8, Diggs has only produced two top-24 weekly finishes, despite averaging 39.3 receiving yards, 1.67 yards per route run, and 18.8% first-read share across seven games. The decline in consistent opportunity has limited his scoring potential, even with red-zone and deep target involvement. Baltimore’s defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wideouts while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game, creating an environment where upside exists but is limited.
This matchup does not significantly improve his fantasy outlook, making Diggs a low-floor option in Week 16. His decreased route share and target volume reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring performance. Managers should only consider him in deep, three-receiver leagues where volume can compensate for low efficiency. With his recent three-game skid and the volatility of the Patriots’ passing game, Diggs is unlikely to produce consistent WR2 output. Fantasy managers should treat him cautiously and avoid relying on him in starting lineups.
Michael Pittman Jr IND
Michael Pittman Jr. had a rough first outing with Philip Rivers under center in Week 15, totaling three catches for 26 yards on five targets. Rivers’ game manager approach limited deep attempts, with only two completions of 10-plus air yards on 27 attempts, spreading targets across multiple players. Pittman ranks WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 51.8 receiving yards per game, and a 25.1% first-read share, but last week he finished WR64, illustrating the volatility with Rivers. Pittman is third on the Colts in red-zone targets (10) and second in deep targets (8), yet those opportunities are muted by a quarterback who is not stretching the field. While Pittman had a hot start to the season, his fantasy production is severely limited for the rest of the season with Rivers at quarterback.
Pittman is getting some more love this week due to his favorable matchup against a struggling 49ers defense. Since Nick Bosa went down earlier this year, they have ranked bottom ten in the NFL in pressure rate, and has resulted in favorable production for opposing receivers. Fantasy managers should view Pittman as a middling flex play at best due to the unlikely opportunity of Phillip Rivers connecting with him over 10+ yards. With the playoff semifinals approaching, starting him presents unnecessary risk. Playing it safe by avoiding Colts receivers in a Rivers-led offense is the prudent choice.
Tight Ends to Start
Darren Waller MIA
Darren Waller enters Week 16 on a hot streak, coming off a huge Week 15 performance at Pittsburgh, where he caught seven passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns on just eight targets. Over the six games he has played this season, excluding his Week 7 injury, Waller has averaged a 61.5% route share with a 15.7% target share, 40.5 receiving yards per game, and an 18.9% first-read share. He has also totaled seven red zone targets, four deep targets, and six touchdowns in that span. If Waller maintains this pace, he would rank as the TE5 in fantasy points per game over a full season. His ability to stay a consistent red zone threat has been evident, as he has had at least one red zone target in every game except for Week 7, when he suffered a pec injury. Despite the quarterback change with Quinn Ewers replacing Tua Tagovailoa, Waller’s rapport with the offense should allow him to continue producing.
The matchup this week is as good as it gets for tight ends, as the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season. Thirteen different tight ends have scored at least 10.7 PPR points against Cincinnati this year, emphasizing how exploitable the Bengals’ coverage has been. In PPR scoring, no team allows more points to the position than Cincinnati, with Pittsburgh trailing by nearly six points per game. Waller’s red zone presence, combined with the Bengals’ defensive vulnerabilities, makes him a reliable start at tight end. Even with the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position, volume and opportunity are on Waller’s side. Fantasy managers can feel confident locking him into their lineups this week.
Dallas Goedert PHI
Dallas Goedert has found a groove over the past two weeks, catching 17 passes for over 70 yards in each game and scoring two red zone touchdowns in Week 15 against Las Vegas. Over that span, Goedert has posted TE5 and TE3 weekly finishes, cementing his role in Philadelphia’s passing attack. He currently averages 42.4 receiving yards per game with a 19% target share, 1.54 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share, reflecting efficiency and involvement. Goedert is tied for the team lead with 11 red zone targets and also contributes six deep targets. His recent surge comes against defenses that are tougher than his upcoming matchup, indicating upside for Week 16.
This week’s matchup against Washington is favorable, as the Commanders have allowed the second-most touchdowns and fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Since Week 10, four of the past five tight ends to face Washington have scored at least 10.2 PPR points. Goedert has averaged over 11.1 PPR points in three of his past five meetings with the Commanders dating back to 2022. His volume and red zone presence make him a solid TE1 option for fantasy managers. Fantasy managers should expect Goedert to continue delivering consistent, top-10 tight end production in this great matchup. With the combination of recent usage and the matchup, Goedert is in an ideal spot this week.
Kyle Pitts ATL
Kyle Pitts has taken his production to a new level over the past few weeks, highlighted by his Week 15 career-high 45.6 fantasy points, the most by a tight end this season. Pitts has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last three games and has been the top target for Kirk Cousins in four consecutive outings. His efficiency in the passing game is complemented by volume, as he consistently leads the team in targets while operating as the primary receiving weapon. Pitts’ output has been especially impressive given Drake London’s absence, and he remains a focal point regardless of London’s potential return. The Cardinals, who he faces this week, have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards this season and fifth-most since Week 11. They have also conceded the second-most touchdowns to tight ends during that stretch, providing a favorable environment for fantasy production.
Pitts’ matchup against Arizona is primed for continued success, with four of the past five tight ends to face the Cardinals scoring at least 12.2 PPR points. Even with potential defensive adjustments, Pitts’ target share and red zone involvement give him a high floor. Fantasy managers can expect a top-three tight end performance from Pitts, particularly if London misses another game. His recent surge, volume, and matchup combine to make him one of the most reliable fantasy options at the position. Pitts is playing like he wants a massive contract extension this offseason, and fantasy managers should feel confident starting him this week in all formats.
Tight Ends to Sit
Hunter Henry NE
Hunter Henry struggled in Week 15 against Buffalo, recording just one catch for 18 yards on three targets. Henry has hit double digits just twice since Week 5, showing volatility and limited upside in tough matchups. His season averages — 44.9 receiving yards per game, 16.8% target share, 1.70 yards per route run, and 19.2% first-read share — are solid but not matchup-proof. The most encouraging part of his game is that he ranks third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. Despite usage exactly where you want to see it, New England’s passing game is heavily dependent on the matchup as to who sees a majority of the volume.
His upcoming matchup against the Ravens is going to be difficult, and I don’t expect a great performance, as Baltimore ranks sixth-fewest in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Since Week 6, Baltimore has allowed only one touchdown to a tight end, and no tight end has scored double digits in PPR over that span. Henry’s inconsistent usage and reliance on efficiency make him a risky play in Week 16. His highs are high, but his floor is vulnerable against elite coverage units. Fantasy managers would be wise to treat Henry as a low-end option in deep leagues only.
Harold Fannin Jr CLE
Harold Fannin Jr. has been a volume machine since Week 12 under Shedeur Sanders, averaging 61.3 receiving yards per game with a 28.5% target share. He has posted three red zone targets, two deep targets, and scored two touchdowns in that span, ranking TE5 in fantasy points per game. Fannin has also scored double digits in three straight weeks, highlighting his role as a primary offensive weapon despite Cleveland’s quarterback carousel. He ranks second among tight ends in targets with 99, and his 7.1 targets per game average indicates a consistent path to production. While Fannin has seen a significant amount of volume this season, it has not directly translated into fantasy points consistently due to the Browns’ struggles on offense.
His Week 16 matchup against Buffalo severely limits upside, as the Bills have been a nightmare for opposing tight ends this season. The Bills have allowed the fewest receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, with a league-low 7 PPR points per game allowed. Only Travis Kelce and Mike Gesicki have scored double digits against Buffalo this season. Despite Fannin’s volume and efficiency, the elite coverage by the Bills makes him a low-floor option this week. Fantasy managers should sit him in favor of higher-upside tight ends such as Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz off the waiver wire this week.
Theo Johnson NYG
Theo Johnson has quietly been producing for the Giants, posting 528 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 72 targets through 14 games. He has topped 70 receiving yards in three of his last five games and scored at least 10.2 PPR points in four of his past six contests. Johnson has a 19.3% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share, showing a solid floor in New York’s passing attack. His red zone involvement and deep target share highlight his upside potential, especially in favorable matchups. While Johnson has been impressive this season, he has not scored a touchdown in six weeks, resulting in no games over 15 points.
Unfortunately, Minnesota presents a tough test in Week 16. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and ninth-fewest yards per target to tight ends since Week 10. No tight end has scored a touchdown in the last five games against Minnesota, and double-digit PPR performances are rare. Johnson’s volume alone is unlikely to overcome the defensive matchup that has rarely allowed touchdowns over the past month. As we have seen, while his floor might be higher with his usage, the ceiling has been limited as of late without the touchdowns. He remains a low-end streaming option this week, who lacks a ceiling when you need it most.
DEF to Start
New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ defense is a sneaky streaming option this week thanks to a favorable matchup against the Jets, who rank in the top eight for fantasy points allowed to defenses. Rookie QB Brady Cook is expected to start again, and he has been prone to mistakes, throwing three interceptions and taking three sacks last week. New Orleans has tallied multiple sacks in five of its last seven games, and the Jets rank third in sacks allowed this season, creating upside for turnovers and negative plays. While the Saints rank low in pressure rate overall, their ability to generate sacks and capitalize on a weak offensive line makes them playable in all formats. Fantasy managers can look for sack accumulation and potential takeaway bonuses. Overall, this defense offers a high-floor streaming option for Week 16.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ defense offers strong fantasy potential in Week 16 despite being out of playoff contention, thanks to a favorable matchup against the struggling Titans. Tennessee ranks 31st in points per game and has allowed 49 sacks and 17 giveaways this season, making them vulnerable to pressure. Kansas City has recorded seven sacks over the last two games and ranks ninth in pass rush win rate, showing the ability to generate consistent QB pressure through its blitzes. While the Titans’ offense has improved slightly, the combination of turnovers and pass rush opportunities makes this D/ST a safe streaming option. Fantasy managers can expect sack accumulation and occasional turnovers to boost fantasy scoring. The matchup sets up well for both sack points and potential interception bonuses. Overall, the Chiefs are a startable D/ST in most leagues this week, even though they have nothing to play for.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s defense presents an excellent fantasy matchup against the Browns and rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Cleveland’s offensive line is injured and underperforming, allowing 40 sacks and 20 giveaways on the season, while Sanders has thrown six interceptions in five games. Despite a spotty season, the Bills have a high ceiling against weak offensive lines, particularly in a matchup where the Browns have scored eight points or fewer in two of their past three contests. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 10 sacks, three fumbles, and four interceptions over the last three games against similar competition. This unit provides strong upside for turnovers and sacks, making it a top-three D/ST option for Week 16. Fantasy managers can expect a high floor with the potential for big-play scoring. Overall, the Bills are a strong start in all formats this week.
DEF to Sit
New England Patriots
The Patriots’ defense enters a difficult matchup against the Ravens, who feature Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in a potent offense. New England has been inconsistent this season and has been struggling with their injuries on the defensive line as of late. Baltimore’s efficiency and low turnover rate further reduce the likelihood of defensive scoring. Last week, in another tough matchup, they gave up 35 points to the Bills, who have a similar ground attack. Fantasy managers have reason to avoid this D/ST in must-win matchups. Overall, New England is a sit against a dynamic Ravens offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ defense, while strong on paper, faces a challenging matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this week. Dallas ranks as the fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to defenses, and their balanced offensive attack can exploit sustained drives and reduce turnover opportunities. Despite scoring 12-plus fantasy points in each of their last two games, the Chargers are at risk of a low-output performance against a potent Cowboys offense. Their secondary could struggle against the duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and road games amplify these matchup challenges. While the unit has recorded 46 sacks, 15 interceptions, and six fumble recoveries this season, this Week 16 matchup suppresses upside. Fantasy managers should bench them to avoid potential disappointment.
Kickers to Start
Eddy Pineiro SF
Eddy Pineiro has been a consistent scoring option, totaling at least 12 points in three of his last four games and averaging 10.7 points this season. Returning from a two-game absence in Week 15, he converted three field goals and four extra points without a miss. Pineiro faces the Colts this week, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing kickers since Week 8, providing plenty of scoring opportunities. He has five games this season with at least three field goals made, and can continue that trend in Week 16. The matchup indoors enhances his reliability and upside. Fantasy managers should start him in most leagues for solid production.
Will Reichard MIN
Will Reichard has been reliable recently, scoring 12 points last week and totaling 30 points over his last three games. He has been held under eight points just once since Week 8. The Giants have allowed 32 field goals and the fourth-most points to opposing kickers this season, setting up a favorable scoring environment. Reichard’s consistency and matchup make him a startable option this week. Fantasy managers can expect multiple field goal opportunities in a high-scoring contest. He offers a safe floor with upside in standard formats.
Kickers to Sit
Evan McPherson CIN
Evan McPherson has struggled recently, scoring just four points combined over his last two games. He faces a tough road matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed one of the lowest rates of fantasy points to opposing kickers in recent weeks. Miami’s defensive efficiency reduces field goal opportunities, limiting upside for McPherson. While he has been reliable on long and short attempts this season, the matchup suppresses scoring chances. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for kicker production in Week 16. Overall, McPherson is a sit against the Dolphins.
Tyler Loop BAL
Tyler Loop faces a difficult matchup against the Patriots, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to kickers since Week 8. Loop has scored six or fewer points in two of his last three games and could see another low-output performance. New England has limited multiple field goal opportunities this season, allowing just five or fewer points to kickers seven times. This week’s matchup further suppresses his scoring potential. Fantasy managers should fade Loop and seek a higher-upside option. Overall, he is a risky play at home against New England.
