Every NFL season brings surprises—but not all of them are positive. While fans love breakout teams, just as many contenders take a step backward due to roster turnover, injuries, tougher schedules, or simple regression to the mean.
Heading into the 2026 season, several teams carry major expectations—but also serious warning signs. Here are five teams that could regress next season and why.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are always contenders with Patrick Mahomes, but cracks are beginning to show.
The biggest concern is roster turnover—especially at wide receiver and along the defense. Kansas City has consistently retooled, but relying on young or unproven talent can catch up quickly.
Mahomes raises the floor, but if the supporting cast (O-line & Wide Receivers) takes a step back, the Chiefs could look more vulnerable than usual in a loaded AFC West. This could result in them not winning the division for two years in a row after years of dominance.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills remain a dangerous team, but regression could come from a defense that’s starting to show signs of wear.
Josh Allen can carry this team, but the Bills have leaned heavily on him year after year. With the hiring of Joe Brady, it does not seem like this reliance will change. If the defense continues to decline—especially in pass rush and secondary depth—it puts even more pressure on Allen to be perfect.
That’s not a sustainable formula for long-term success.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are a regular-season powerhouse—but warning signs are there.
Turnover-heavy defenses tend to regress, and Dallas has relied on takeaways to dominate games. This resulted in the firing of the DC in the offseason. If those numbers dip, it exposes inconsistency on both sides of the ball.
Add in the pressure on Dak Prescott and ongoing playoff struggles, and this could be a team that slips slightly in the standings.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have elite talent, but internal and on-field concerns are building.
Questions surrounding Jalen Hurts, combined with defensive inconsistencies and locker room tension, make this a risky team heading into 2026. Look for a big trade on draft day from the Eagles, as Howie Roseman typically is an active GM on draft day.
AJ Brown and the Eagles have had some well-documented issues in the past, and the recent WR additions for the Eagles in free agency may point to a big compensation trade for the Eagles, and possibly a team like the Patriots.
They’re still dangerous—but if things don’t click early, regression could come fast.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans made a huge leap behind C. J. Stroud, but that’s exactly why regression is possible.
Young teams that rise quickly often hit a plateau once defenses adjust. If Stroud faces more complex coverages and the defense doesn’t improve, Houston could take a slight step back before taking another leap forward.
This was out in the open this past postseason, where the Texans once again made it to the divisional round but got embarrassed, as the turnovers were prevalent. If the offense does not grow, then I expect the Texans to miss the divisional round of the playoffs in 2026, despite having a top 5 defense in the NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers consistently outperform expectations—but that can be hard to sustain.
Once again, the QB position for the Steelers is in flux, and no one inside the organization seems to be concerned, if Aaron Rodgers comes back, I am not sure it would make too many people outside of the organization comfortable.
Close-game success and defensive dominance led by T. J. Watt can be volatile year to year. If turnover luck or late-game execution swings the other way, Pittsburgh could easily regress.
Final Thoughts
Regression doesn’t always mean collapse—it often means falling from elite to merely good, or merely good to rebuild time. In a league built on parity, even small declines can lead to big drops in the standings.
Teams like the Chiefs and Bills are battling roster wear, while others like the Eagles and Steelers face internal or structural concerns. The Cowboys? They’re walking the fine line between dominance and disappointment, just like we are all accustomed to. Can the 2026 Draft be the catalyst that pushes these teams to the next level.
One thing is certain: not every contender from last season will look the same in 2026.
