The NFL is a league that’s always full of surprises. You never know what’s going to happen from one season to the next.
A team that makes the playoffs one year might not even come close the next. This can happen for a lot of reasons – players get hurt, their schedule gets tougher, they lose some of their best players, or they just don’t play as well as they did the year before.
As we get ready for the 2026 season, let’s take a look at five teams that made the playoffs last year but might not make it back this year.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
For years, the Steelers have consistently found ways to remain competitive under Mike Tomlin, but the guard has finally changed.
As one of the potential NFL playoff teams to miss the playoffs 2026, Pittsburgh must establish a reliable passing attack while staying healthy on defense to avoid falling behind in the AFC race.
New Head Coach Mike McCarthy reunites with Aaron Rodgers, but it may not be enough to combat the others in the conference.
The AFC continues to get deeper, especially in the north, with the Bengals and Ravens reloading, and another nine- or ten-win season may not be enough to secure a Wild Card berth.
4. Green Bay Packers
For the couple of weeks of the 2025 season, the media were crowning the Green Bay Packers as the team to beat.
Now the tune has changed, and they could be one of the NFL playoff teams that miss the NFL playoffs in 2026. The Packers must prove they can handle the pressure of being one of the NFC’s top contenders.
Jordan Love has shown he can lead Green Bay, but expectations have risen dramatically. The NFC North features legitimate contenders every week.
Packers will also be missing some offensive production from those who have departed or are injured, like Tucker Kraft.
If the Packers sustain injuries again and fall behind in the North, I would not be shocked.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers remain talented, but they also enter 2026 with several question marks.
Roster turnover, player health, and age at several key positions could finally catch up to one of the NFC’s perennial contenders. Yet, one of the more intriguing NFL teams that could miss the playoffs in 2026.
The NFC West has become significantly more competitive, meaning San Francisco can no longer rely solely on talent to reach the postseason.
The injury bug has hit Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and others for a while, yet they remain prominent in the NFC.
The question is how long they can keep it up with the talent in the conference growing. They added some pieces, like Mike Evans, but he has also suffered injuries. Also, having the defending Super Bowl champs, the Seahawks, and the Rams does not make things easier.
2. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers took a major step forward by reaching the playoffs, but repeating that success won’t be easy. As one of the younger playoffs team, Carolina must prove last season was the beginning of sustained success rather than a one-year breakthrough.
Expectations are much higher, but they are also in the NFC South. The last time the Panthers won back-to-back NFC South titles was during the Cam Newton era, and I do not believe things will be easier simply because the division is not consistent.
Some factors went Carolina’s way, much more aligned with the health of the Buccaneers. The Falcons will have a new head coach and quarterback, and the Saints are looking sneaky after a strong finish to the season and an excellent offseason.
The NFC South remains unpredictable, and if Carolina shows any offensive regression or struggles to generate pressure on defense, a playoff return becomes far less certain.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville enters 2026 with the most pressure of any team on this list.
After finally breaking through as a playoff team, expectations are sky-high, but the AFC is stacked with legitimate contenders, and they make them my #1 team that could potentially miss the playoffs
Trevor Lawrence must show consistency while Jacksonville tries to show it can compete against playoff-caliber opponents.
The Jaguars also face one of the tougher conference races in football, where one losing streak could completely alter the playoff picture.
The Texans are the biggest threat in terms of overall threat and potential. Meanwhile, the Colts started hot but faded after Daniel Jones’ injury. And the Titans bring in Robert Salah and Brian Daboll to coach up last year 1st overall pick, Cam Ward.
If the offense becomes inconsistent or injuries strike key contributors, Jacksonville could be one of the biggest surprises by missing the postseason.
Final Thoughts
Every NFL season brings surprises. While each of these five franchises has enough talent to return to the playoffs, history tells us that several playoff teams won’t make it back the following year.
Whether it’s regression, injuries, difficult schedules, or stronger competition, the Jaguars, Panthers, 49ers, Packers, and Steelers all have legitimate reasons to believe 2026 could be much more challenging than their previous playoff run.
Which playoff team do you think is most likely to miss the postseason in 2026?
