Last Thursday, May 14th, marked the release of the complete NFL schedule for the 2026 season. I went digging to find the season win totals set by some of the major sportsbooks in the United States for the Indianapolis Colts and here is what I found:
Caesars: Over 8.5 wins +122 and Under 8.5 wins -145
DraftKings: Over 7.5 wins -130 and Under 7.5 wins +110
FanDuel: Over 7.5 wins -130 and Under 7.5 wins +110
Hard Rock: Over 7.5 wins -135 and Under 7.5 wins +110
Since the 2016 season, Indianapolis has had 4 seasons of winning 8 games or more, and 3 of those have had 9 wins or more. Also over that time, a whopping 25 quarterbacks have taken snaps for the Colts, and 4 different head coaches have been at the helm.
So what makes anyone think they will win even 9 or more this year? Let’s take into account the exit of veteran players like Kenny Moore, Zaire Franklin, and Michael Pittman Jr. With those guys gone, that leaves major shoes to fill in all of those positions, and while I boasted about the Colts 2026 NFL Draft results in an earlier article of mine, all of those guys obviously have no experience playing in the NFL.
In this article, I am going to break down where the value lies in betting the Colts season win total. I will go through their division matchups, conference matchups, and everything else in between.
Indianapolis Colts: Where the wins could and should come from
Let’s start with week 2, where the Colts will face the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Kansas City. I know putting this game under the possible wins column seems crazy; however, this may be an advantageous spot for Indianapolis. The Chiefs will be coming off a down year, an entire summer of Patrick Mahomes rehabbing his torn ACL, and a tough Broncos team in week 1. The Colts have won 3 of the last 4 in Kansas City, and I think this game will make it 4 of the last 5.
Skipping ahead to week 7, the Colts travel to Minneapolis to face the Vikings. The current state of the Vikings is a great coach, but a lot of uncertainty at quarterback. With that being said, this has to be a definite win spot for Indianapolis.
Next is the week 9 matchup at home with the Dallas Cowboys. To me, this screams the usual spot in the season where Dallas begins to crumble. Dak is either hurt or having an MVP season, and on the other hand, the rest of the team is not supporting him. I don’t think the Cowboys can tame the young horse here.
The next win I foresee will come in week 10 at home against the Miami Dolphins. If you remember back to week 1 in 2025, the Colts seemed to kick off the fallout of the Dolphins organization. A dominant 33-8 win is what we saw then, and I don’t expect anything less this season.
The New York Football Giants will make a stop in Indianapolis on November 29th. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo seemed to be on a tear last season until there were some injury setbacks. Given the still-in-progress rebuild of the Giants, I expect the same thing at this point in the 2026 season.
Indianapolis will face the Cincinnati Bengals on December 27th, and in my opinion, this seems to be a comparable spot to the Dallas one. Burrow, given history, will either be shredding defenses up until this point or will be injured from the lack of offensive line productivity.
Jump to January 3rd, when the Colts face the ailing organization that is the Cleveland Browns. Personally, I don’t think much needs to be said about this matchup. The quarterback room situation in Cleveland seems to still be uncertain, as to who may be at the helm come week 1, let alone at this point in the season.
Indianapolis Colts: Tough spots that scream, LOSS!
Week 1 of the 2026 season for the Colts begins at home, where they will face the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming off a huge letdown of a season in 2025, and I think that is fuel to the fire for Lamar Jackson and this team. Jackson has not won a Super Bowl yet, let alone even been to one. I don’t see any better way to get a week 1 win for the Ravens than facing the Colts, who, since 2008, have 3 week 1 wins.
The week 4 game for the Colts will see them travel across the pond to London to face the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. These international games are tough for any team to play in, with the time change, game start time, and overall travel situation. This game, in my opinion, is worse for the Colts due to Jayden Daniels having an incredible rookie season and then an injury-plagued sophomore slump. I think Daniels will be coming into this season with vengeance on his mind.
On October 11th, Indianapolis will travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. While some may have their doubts about Aaron Rodgers coming back to play his 21st season (he was a rookie in 2005, which is insane to me), this is still a very tough spot for the Colts. They do not fare well when playing in the Steel City and against the Steelers in general, so I expect a loss here for Indianapolis.
The game, I believe, may be one of the Colts’ toughest of the entire regular season, coming on December 13th when they travel to Philly to face the Eagles. This game comes at a time in the season when, in the past, the Colts have begun to fall off and just plain not show up and compete.
Indianapolis Colts: AFC South Outlook
Last but not least, let’s look at the Colts division performance. Since 2016, Indianapolis has had an AFC South division record of 38-41-1 and hasn’t won the division during that time either.
First of all, the Jacksonville Jaguars at home against the Colts have won all but 3 games since 2010. That stat is just plain unacceptable, and this year may be the perfect time for that to change. In many past seasons, Indianapolis has had to play at Jacksonville close to the end of the season, and as I mentioned before, that is about the time they fall off the wagon. This season, they will play them almost in the middle of their schedule, and hopefully that will allow them to break whatever curse isn’t allowing them to win in Jacksonville.
Next, when facing the Houston Texans, the Colts have gone 10-9-1 since 2016. I think that is a perfect example of being able to split the season series with Houston during that span, and it is typical in the NFL amongst division opponents. In reference to my points earlier in this article, the Texans seem to be comparable to the Cowboys and Bengals in the way that their offensive line also lets down their quarterback, C.J. Stroud. A bolstered defensive pass rush unit by Indianapolis could pay dividends when facing Houston, the Cowboys, and the Bengals as well.
When it comes to division games in the NFL, if you don’t know each team plays two, beating the same team more than once can be very difficult. Given that I believe the best-case scenario for the Colts is to split the two games with each of their divisional opponents. I believe, though, that an advantage here comes with playing the Tennessee Titans and being able to exploit a young quarterback in Cam Ward.
Indianapolis Colts: The side I am leaning towards…
Honestly, coming into this article and up until I had broken down the win and loss projections for the Colts, I was all in on the under 8.5 wins for the 2026 season. However, after I saw how many games the Colts have the potential of winning, I am definitely jumping on the over 7.5 wins. As I said in my Colts draft article, this is a make-or-break season for both Head Coach Shane Steichen and General Manager Chris Ballard.
Though in my opinion, Ballard should have been gone a long time ago, and I don’t mind Steichen, no matter what happens this season. As a childhood fanatic of the Colts, I hope they can return to a consistent and winning way of playing football.
