Making the right start ’em, sit ’em decisions can be the difference between winning and losing your fantasy football matchup each week. Throughout the 2026 NFL season, we’ll break down the best fantasy football starts and sits at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and kicker. Using matchups, usage trends, advanced stats, injuries, and scoring opportunities, this weekly Start ’Em, Sit ’Em guide will highlight the players you should trust in your lineup and the ones you may want to leave on the bench.
Want your start/sit questions answered within minutes? Join the Blitz Community for free fantasy football advice all season long.
Quarterbacks to Start
Tyler Shough, QB (NO)
Tyler Shough is the QB16 in fantasy points per game, but he’s been more useful than that rank suggests, with five top-10 weekly finishes in eight starts. His rushing gives him a ceiling most streaming quarterbacks don’t have. Shough has rushed 34 times for 162 yards and two touchdowns, ranking eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards, and he’s coming off a season-high 10 carries for 51 yards against Cleveland. His best game came against the Giants in Week 6, when he threw for just 144 yards but found the end zone four times, three through the air and one on the ground, to finish with 26.9 fantasy points. That rushing production can swing week to week, though. He didn’t record a carry against Minnesota in Week 5, his worst game of the season, and he ran for only five yards against Atlanta. Among 31 passers with at least 150 dropbacks through Week 9, Shough ranks sixth in catchable pass rate and 13th in completion percentage over expectation, but only 25th in yards per attempt.
Carolina’s lack of pressure makes this a better spot for Shough, who took five sacks against Cleveland last week. The Panthers rank 26th in pressure rate, which should give him more time to work through his reads and more chances to scramble when the first option is covered. Carolina has also allowed 18.6 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the 11th-most in the league. Over the defense’s last five games, the Panthers have allowed the eighth-highest passing success rate, so drives should have a chance to stay alive even if big plays are limited. The concern is coverage. Carolina plays zone on 74% of dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in the league, and Shough has been less productive against zone this season. He likely won’t win this game with big passing numbers, but his rushing gives him a path to a solid fantasy day. I’m starting Shough as a low-end QB1 because his rushing upside and Carolina’s low pressure rate give him a good chance at another top-12 finish.
Bryce Young, QB (CAR)
Bryce Young is the QB10 in fantasy points per game, with 17 total touchdowns through eight starts and four games of at least 20 fantasy points. His passing volume has been one of his biggest strengths, as he’s attempted at least 36 passes in seven of eight games. Among qualifying passers, Young is 10th in passing touchdown rate, 14th in completion percentage over expectation, and 15th in yards per attempt. He bounced back against Denver in Week 9, completing 28 of 39 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns. Pressure has been the biggest problem in his bad games. Young has been pressured on 39% of his dropbacks, and his yards per attempt falls from 7.13 overall to 5.64 when pressured. He took 11 sacks in back-to-back games against Tampa Bay and Green Bay, scoring just 5.4 and 10.4 fantasy points. Turnovers have also been an issue, with six over his last three games.
Young has the passing volume to start this week, and New Orleans gives him a better chance to avoid the sacks that hurt him against Tampa Bay and Green Bay. The Saints rank 27th in pressure rate. Over the defense’s last five games, New Orleans has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback. The Saints play zone on 62% of dropbacks and have allowed 8.21 yards per attempt against it this season, the fifth-highest mark in the league, while Young ranks ninth among qualifying passers in fantasy points per dropback against zone. He won’t add much as a rusher, and his recent turnovers could limit his ceiling. Still, a defense that hasn’t consistently pressured quarterbacks and has given up plenty of yardage creates an appealing setup. I’m starting Young as a QB1 because his passing volume and a favorable matchup give him a strong chance at another 20-point performance.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC)
Patrick Mahomes is the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but he’s played much better recently, throwing for 563 yards and five touchdowns without an interception over his last two games. Kansas City’s offense has changed this season. Mahomes has the lowest average depth of target among qualifying passers, including a 2.9-yard mark against the Jets, as the Chiefs have relied on shorter throws and yards after the catch. That approach has kept the offense moving, as he ranks third in passing success rate, eighth in fantasy points per dropback and ninth in yards per attempt. He’s also handled pressure well, leading qualifying passers in yards per attempt when pressured, and only 14.5% of his pressured dropbacks have ended in sacks, the third-lowest rate in the league. Mahomes injured his right elbow in Week 9, but the MRI reportedly showed a strain or sprain without significant damage, and Kansas City listed him as a full participant Wednesday. The Chiefs also acquired Josh Downs at the deadline, although I expect Downs to play a limited role in his first game as he learns the offense.
Atlanta has struggled to get off the field against the pass. Over the defense’s last five games, the Falcons have allowed the third-highest passing success rate, the 10th-most yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passing touchdown rate, and the sixth-highest passer rating. That gives Kansas City a good chance to keep drives moving with the short, quick throws it has relied on. Atlanta also ranks 25th in blitz rate, and the pressure it does generate hasn’t been a major problem for Mahomes this season. The Falcons have also intercepted passes at the third-lowest rate in the league. Mahomes’ shorter passing approach limits his ceiling, and the 30-point games haven’t shown up this season. But his recent efficiency gives him a stable floor. I’m starting Mahomes as a QB1 because his ability to keep drives alive with short throws matches up well with Atlanta’s recent struggles against the pass.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR)
Matthew Stafford is expected to be without both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams this week, leaving him without the two receivers who have driven his best games. Nacua has been ruled out with a knee injury, while Adams remains on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. The Rams’ tight end group is also banged up, as Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen were estimated as limited during Wednesday’s walkthrough. Stafford’s production had already been sliding before the latest injuries. He’s scored 8.3 and 11.2 fantasy points over his last two games and has finished below 12 points in four of nine starts. He’s also averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt over his past six games. Among qualifying passers, Stafford ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing touchdown rate, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. He’s still ninth in passing success rate, but the explosive plays have largely disappeared.
Arizona is the reason this is a difficult call. Over the defense’s last five games, the Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback, the ninth-highest passing touchdown rate, and the seventh-highest passer rating, and Stafford threw two touchdowns against them in Week 6. However, the Cardinals play zone on 72% of dropbacks, and Stafford has had lower fantasy production against zone this season, ranking 17th in fantasy points per dropback against it compared to 11th against man. Losing Nacua makes that matchup more difficult. The Rams are also 9.5-point favorites, which could lead to a run-heavy second half if they build an early lead. The matchup gives Stafford a path to a useful game, but the receiving-corps injuries make it hard to trust him. I’m sitting Stafford in one-quarterback leagues because the loss of his top two receivers and his recent production outweigh a favorable matchup.
Kirk Cousins, QB (MIN)
Kirk Cousins was the QB8 in fantasy points per game with Las Vegas, throwing 20 touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL, with 2,340 yards and eight interceptions across nine starts. Among qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in passing touchdown rate and passing success rate and seventh in fantasy points per dropback, and he finished with at least 12 fantasy points in every start with the Raiders. That production came in a different situation, though. The Raiders traded him to Minnesota this week, and Kevin O’Connell said the team is working toward having him play Sunday without officially naming him the starter. Minnesota did not practice Wednesday, but its estimated report listed Kyler Murray as a non-participant with a hamstring injury and Carson Wentz as limited with an ankle injury. Even if Cousins starts, he’ll be working with new receivers after only a few practices in an offense that has run just 57.4 plays per game, the third-fewest in football. He also threw three interceptions against San Francisco in Week 9.
Green Bay is a difficult matchup for a quarterback getting up to speed with a new team. Over the defense’s last five games, the Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback, the 10th-lowest passing success rate, and the third-lowest passer rating. They also have the third-highest interception rate in the league this season and rank 10th in pressure rate. No quarterback has scored 20 fantasy points against them. Cousins’ history in O’Connell’s offense should help him adjust more quickly than most quarterbacks could, but learning new receivers against one of the league’s best pass defenses creates considerable risk. If he’s named the starter, he’s a reasonable superflex option. I’m sitting Cousins in one-quarterback leagues because his uncertain role and Green Bay’s pass defense make him too difficult to trust this week.
Aaron Rodgers, QB (PIT)
Aaron Rodgers is the QB20 in fantasy points per game, and his passing volume has fallen off since his best stretch of the season. He threw nine touchdowns from Weeks 3 through 5, scoring at least 19.9 fantasy points in each game, but he’s averaged about 11.3 fantasy points over his last three starts. Pittsburgh has also asked him to throw less, as his attempts have dropped from 49 in Week 6 to 30 and then 25. He scored just 4.9 fantasy points against Cleveland in Week 8 before the Steelers’ bye. Among qualifying passers, Rodgers ranks 23rd in yards per attempt and passing success rate and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. He’s also taken a sack on 28.8% of his pressured dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate in the league. With just 23 rushing yards this season, Rodgers needs passing touchdowns to deliver fantasy value.
Rodgers did throw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati in Week 3, and the Bengals’ offense could push this game into a shootout. However, Cincinnati has allowed only nine passing touchdowns in eight games, and over the defense’s last five games, it has held quarterbacks to the 12th-lowest passing touchdown rate. The Bengals also play man coverage on 45.5% of dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in the league, and Rodgers has been below average against man this season. More importantly, Pittsburgh won four straight games before its bye by leaning on Jaylen Warren and the running game. That approach could continue after two weeks of rest, limiting Rodgers’ passing volume again. I’m sitting Rodgers in one-quarterback leagues because his declining volume and limited rushing production give him too low a floor, although he remains a viable superflex option.
Running Backs to Start
Blake Corum, RB (LAR)
Blake Corum has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, and he’s coming off 11 carries for 58 yards and a score against Washington in Week 9. He’s still the Rams’ No. 2 back behind Kyren Williams, and he hasn’t played more than 45% of the snaps in any game this season. But his share of the workload has grown, as he’s handled at least 38% of Los Angeles’ carries in each of his last four games. Corum has made the most of those opportunities, rushing for 447 yards on 86 carries, an average of 5.2 yards per carry. He’s also been one of the league’s most consistent runners on a per-play basis, ranking second among qualifying running backs in rushing success rate through Week 9. His limited role in the passing game is the main concern, as he’s caught just three passes over his last four games, so his weekly production depends on how many carries the Rams give him.
That’s why the matchup sets up so well for him. The Rams are 9.5-point favorites against an Arizona offense that has struggled to score, and when Los Angeles plays from ahead, Corum’s carries have grown as the team leans on its running game to close out wins. He also had success against the Cardinals in Week 6, totaling 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown for 14.0 PPR points. Arizona’s run defense has been close to league average, which makes this more about game script than an exploitable matchup. Corum’s touchdown streak will eventually end, and a quiet game is possible if Williams handles most of the work near the goal line. Still, he has earned a steady role, and this is the type of game where that role should grow. I’m starting Corum as a flex option because his efficiency and a favorable game script should give him enough carries to deliver a useful performance.
Ollie Gordon II, RB (MIA)
Ollie Gordon II has handled at least 16 carries in five of his last six games, including 35 over the last two weeks. That volume is the foundation of his fantasy value, as he’s handled 61%, 83% and 76% of Miami’s carries over his last three games. He’s recorded 107 carries for 463 yards and four touchdowns this season, but his last two games show the risk of relying on carries alone. Those 35 carries produced just 124 rushing yards and 6.9 and 7.4 PPR points. Gordon has been held to 3.6 and 3.4 yards per carry in those games, and he offers very little as a receiver, with seven catches for 23 yards all season. Miami’s offense also faces a significant change, as Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start with Malik Willis on injured reserve. That could make it harder for the Dolphins to sustain drives, but it also gives them more reason to keep the ball on the ground.
Indianapolis has been one of the easier run defenses to attack recently. Over the defense’s last five games, the Colts have allowed the fourth-most yards per carry and the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt. That’s a much better matchup than the ones Gordon faced against New England and Detroit, and it gives him a chance to turn his workload into more efficient production. Miami will want to protect a quarterback making his first start, which should help keep Gordon heavily involved as long as the game stays competitive. If the Dolphins fall behind early, his role could shrink, and his limited receiving work would leave him with little to fall back on. That’s the main risk with this call. I’m starting Gordon as an RB2 because his carry volume and a softer Colts run defense give him a good chance to rebound after two disappointing games.
Zach Charbonnet, RB (SEA)
Zach Charbonnet’s role in Seattle’s backfield took a major step forward in Week 9. After handling six carries in his season debut against Chicago, he rushed 16 times for 77 yards against Arizona while adding a nine-yard catch. He played 56% of the snaps and handled 58% of Seattle’s running back opportunities, giving him the lead role in the backfield. His usage also extended beyond early downs. Charbonnet was on the field for nine of Seattle’s 12 third downs with at least three yards to go, showing the coaching staff trusted him in passing situations as well. Jadarian Price still caught four passes and remains involved, but Charbonnet’s workload looked like that of a lead back. He also ran efficiently against the Cardinals, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 3.7 yards after contact per attempt. Two games is a small sample, but the jump from six carries to 16 is difficult to ignore.
Las Vegas is the best rushing matchup Charbonnet could have asked for. The Raiders have allowed the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season, and their run defense has only gotten worse recently. Over the defense’s last five games, they’ve allowed 5.2 yards per carry and the highest rushing success rate in the NFL, consistently allowing opposing offenses to stay ahead of the chains. That’s an ideal setup for Charbonnet if his workload looks anything like it did in Week 9. Price’s involvement gives this backfield some uncertainty, and Seattle could still split the work more evenly than it did last week. However, Charbonnet’s role on third downs suggests he’s more than an early-down option. I’m starting Charbonnet as an RB2 because his expanded workload and one of the league’s worst run defenses give him one of the best rushing matchups of the week.
Running Backs to Sit
Corey Kiner, RB (NE)
Corey Kiner rushed eight times for 55 yards and his first career touchdown against Green Bay in Week 9, but the context of that performance matters. Rhamondre Stevenson left the game with a knee injury, and Lan Larison handled the next 12 snaps while Drake Maye was still in the game. Much of Kiner’s work came after Tommy DeVito entered with New England trailing by 24 points in the fourth quarter. Stevenson missed practice Wednesday, while TreVeyon Henderson has been ruled out with an illness for a third straight game. That should give Kiner more work than usual, but Larison appears likely to share the backfield. Kiner has been efficient with limited carries this season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but he’s handled more than eight carries only once. He also has just two catches all season, making his fantasy production almost entirely dependent on carries and touchdowns.
Detroit’s run defense makes that a difficult combination to trust. The Lions have allowed only two rushing touchdowns over their last five games, and opposing backs have struggled to consistently pick up positive yardage against them. Kiner would need a substantial workload and likely a touchdown to produce a useful fantasy performance, and neither is guaranteed with Larison involved. His lack of receiving work also lowers his floor in a game where New England could have trouble sustaining drives. Kiner’s explosiveness gives him some upside if he receives 12 to 15 carries, and he’s worth considering in deeper leagues. But it’s difficult to project a reliable role in a backfield that still has several moving parts. I’m sitting Kiner because his uncertain workload, minimal receiving role, and a difficult Detroit run defense make him too risky to start.
Quinshon Judkins, RB (CLE)
Quinshon Judkins is still leading Cleveland in carries, but his role has changed in ways that hurt his fantasy value. He rushed 15 times for 43 yards against New Orleans in Week 9, finishing with just 5.5 PPR points. Judkins has played fewer than 40% of the snaps in each of his last two games and ran routes on only 10% of Cleveland’s dropbacks against the Saints. Dylan Sampson played every snap in overtime, further showing how the Browns are dividing the work. Judkins’ receiving role has also declined sharply. He caught 18 passes from Weeks 1 through 5, but has just four receptions from Weeks 7 through 9. That shift explains how he can lead the team in carries and still finish under seven PPR points in back-to-back games. His rushing efficiency hasn’t helped, as he’s gained 385 yards on 116 carries, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
Houston’s run defense has softened recently, making this a more difficult sit than his recent production suggests. The Texans have allowed six rushing touchdowns over their last five games, the fourth-most in the league, giving Judkins a realistic path to a score. However, an early-down role with limited receiving work leaves him with a low floor in PPR formats, particularly if Cleveland falls behind. The Browns have also averaged just 17.9 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the league, which limits his touchdown opportunities. Judkins can still be used as a flex option in deeper leagues because of his carry volume. In shallower leagues, his declining snaps and receiving work make him difficult to trust. I’m sitting Judkins in shallower leagues because Sampson’s growing role has taken away the passing-game production that previously supported his fantasy value.
Tyler Allgeier, RB (ARI)
Tyler Allgeier handled 17 carries and 94% of Arizona’s rushing work against Seattle in Week 9, but that workload came with Bam Knight sidelined by a concussion. Knight returned to practice as a limited participant Wednesday, and if he’s cleared to play, Allgeier is likely to lose a significant share of the work. When both backs were healthy, Knight produced more with his touches. In Week 6 against the Rams, Knight turned 15 carries into 80 yards while adding two catches for 18 yards, while Allgeier managed 38 yards on 18 carries. The following week against Denver, Knight outgained him again with 63 scrimmage yards to Allgeier’s 49, and he drew five targets to Allgeier’s three. Allgeier’s production has also been extremely inconsistent. He exploded for 36.1 PPR points against Dallas in Week 8, but outside of that game, he’s scored fewer than 10 PPR points in seven of nine appearances and has averaged fewer than 2.75 yards per carry in six games.
The matchup makes a split backfield even harder to trust. Los Angeles has been one of the league’s toughest run defenses, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry and only two rushing touchdowns over its last five games. Allgeier already saw this defense in Week 6 and finished with 5.8 PPR points, while Knight was the back who found running room. Arizona’s offense has also struggled to score, which limits the touchdown opportunities Allgeier needs when his carries are being shared. If Knight is ruled out again, Allgeier would move back into a featured role and become a volume-based flex option, so his status is worth monitoring before kickoff. But if Knight is active, Allgeier is likely looking at fewer carries against a defense that already held him in check. I’m sitting Allgeier because Knight’s likely return and a difficult Rams run defense leave him with too uncertain a role to trust.
Wide Receivers to Start
KC Concepcion Jr., WR (CLE)
KC Concepcion Jr. has become one of Cleveland’s top targets. He’s commanded at least 21% of the Browns’ targets in four of his last five full games, and he ran a route on 93% of Cleveland’s dropbacks against New Orleans in Week 9. Last week he cashed in on my must-start prediction, catching four of six targets for 85 yards and his first career touchdown while adding three rushing yards for 18.8 PPR points. He still has competition for looks. Denzel Boston led the Browns with seven targets against the Saints, and when Concepcion’s volume dips, so does his production. He caught three of four targets against Pittsburgh in Week 8 and finished with just 6.7 PPR points. He also briefly left the Saints game with a leg injury before returning, so his practice reports are worth watching.
Concepcion runs about two-thirds of his routes from the slot, and Houston has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to slot receivers over its last five games. That’s a fair matchup, not a scary one, and it puts the focus back on his playing time. Very few receivers in the WR3 range are on the field for 93% of their team’s pass plays. That kind of route share means he’ll get his chances even in a low-scoring offense, and he’s shown he can turn six targets into a top-15 week. I’m starting Concepcion as a WR3 in PPR leagues, and I’d play him over flex options who aren’t running nearly every route.
Jalen Coker, WR (CAR)
Jalen Coker’s production has dipped after a hot start, but his role on the field hasn’t. He caught 24 of 35 targets for 319 yards and two touchdowns over his first four games, including 138 yards and two scores against Chicago in Week 1. Over his last three games, he’s caught seven passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. His route participation has stayed strong, as he’s run a route on at least 71% of Carolina’s pass plays in each of his last four games. The issue has been target volume. Bryce Young bounced back with 276 yards and three touchdowns against Denver in Week 9, and Coker still finished with four catches for 29 yards on five targets. That shows the slump isn’t only about the quarterback play, and it’s why Coker is a more volatile option than his early-season numbers suggest. He’s also shown what the ceiling looks like when the targets come, catching six passes for 97 yards against Philadelphia in Week 6.
New Orleans has given receivers room to work, allowing the third-most yards per target to slot receivers over its last five games. Coker lines up in the slot on roughly 30% to 55% of his routes, so he should get some of his work in that area of the field. The Saints have also generated little pressure, which should give Young time to work through his reads and find Coker downfield. The key for Coker is getting back to six or more targets. His route share keeps him on the field, and a defense that has allowed this much yardage gives him a chance to turn those routes into production. I’m starting Coker as a volatile WR3 because his route participation and a favorable matchup give him upside, but I’d accept that another five-target game is part of the risk.
Germie Bernard, WR (PIT)
Germie Bernard has become a full-time receiver who gets a lot of his work from the slot. Over the four games Michael Pittman Jr. missed before the bye, Bernard played between 85% and 94% of the offensive snaps and caught 25 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown. His best game came against Tampa Bay in Week 6, when he caught 11 of 12 targets for 87 yards and a score, finishing with 25.7 PPR points. He’s lined up in the slot on between 44% and 65% of his routes in each of his last four games. Pittman remains on injured reserve, and with the Steelers yet to open his practice window, Bernard should continue to be one of Aaron Rodgers’ go-to options. The concern is efficiency. He caught eight of 10 targets for just 57 yards over his last two games before the bye, and his targets have come close to the line of scrimmage, so his production depends on volume.
Forget what Bernard did against Cincinnati in Week 3. He ran a route on about a quarter of Pittsburgh’s pass plays in that game and caught one pass. He’s an every-down player now. The Bengals have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to slot receivers over their last five games, and that’s exactly where Bernard does most of his damage. His short-area role caps his yardage, so he needs catches to pay off. In a matchup this friendly to slot receivers, six or seven catches is a realistic outcome. I’m starting Bernard as a WR3 because his full-time role and Cincinnati’s struggles in the slot set him up for a strong PPR game.
Wide Receivers to Sit
DK Metcalf, WR (PIT)
DK Metcalf continues to receive plenty of targets, but he hasn’t turned them into consistent production. He’s commanded at least 22% of Pittsburgh’s targets in six of eight games, but he’s caught just 33 of 64 targets for 378 yards and one touchdown, averaging about 5.9 yards per target. Including his 11 rushing yards, he’s averaged 9.7 PPR points per game. His last two games before the bye were the most concerning, as he caught just three of 12 targets for 60 yards, including a one-catch, four-yard performance against Cleveland in Week 8. Metcalf has broken through occasionally, posting 16.5 PPR points against Cleveland in Week 4 and 20.3 against Tampa Bay in Week 6, but those games have been the exception. His low catch rate has made his weekly floor unpredictable even when the volume is there.
Cincinnati’s coverage on the outside adds to the concern. Metcalf lines up on the perimeter for roughly three-quarters or more of his routes, and the Bengals have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to perimeter receivers over their last five games. While Bernard should benefit from Cincinnati’s struggles in the slot, Metcalf’s role leaves him facing the stronger part of the Bengals’ coverage. He did score against Cincinnati in Week 3, catching three of five targets for 31 yards, but that touchdown was the reason he reached double-digit fantasy points. His target share keeps him in the flex conversation in deeper leagues. I’m sitting Metcalf in shallow leagues. He’s still getting targets, but he’s caught just three of his last 12, and he needed a touchdown to get to 12 PPR points the first time he faced Cincinnati.
Caleb Douglas, WR (MIA)
Caleb Douglas has been productive when healthy, recording 19 catches for 296 yards and two touchdowns across five games. He’s reached 70 receiving yards in three of those five games and drew a season-high eight targets against Detroit in Week 9, catching six for 70 yards. It has been clear that Douglas is the most talented pass catcher in Miami and is encouraging for his future fantasy value. The problem is the quarterback situation. Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start with Malik Willis on injured reserve, and that change could limit Miami’s passing volume and efficiency. Douglas has an average depth of target above 11 yards, so his production depends on a quarterback who can consistently push the ball downfield. That’s a lot to ask of a player making his first start.
Miami could lean on Ollie Gordon II and the running game to protect McCord, which would make it harder for Douglas to repeat last week’s target total. Indianapolis also hasn’t been an easy matchup for receivers on the outside, where Douglas runs most of his routes, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to perimeter receivers over its last five games. Douglas’ eight targets last week are enough to keep him in the flex conversation in deeper leagues, and if McCord handles his first start well, Douglas could quickly move back into lineups. But a first-time starter and a tough perimeter matchup give him a lower floor than his recent usage suggests. I’m sitting Douglas in shallow leagues and would wait to see how McCord performs before trusting him.
Ladd McConkey, WR (LAC)
Ladd McConkey’s playing time has been the biggest obstacle to his fantasy value. He’s recorded 17 catches on 24 targets for 286 yards and one touchdown across six games played, and he’s been on the field for more than half of the Chargers’ snaps in only two of their eight games. That inconsistent role has produced uneven results. He caught five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown against Arizona in Week 1 and had 86 yards against the Rams in Week 8, but he also failed to catch either of his two targets against Seattle in Week 4. His back has added another layer of uncertainty. McConkey was active against Houston in Week 9 but never played after suffering back spasms in warmups.
The timing of the game also works against him. The Chargers play at Baltimore on Monday night, which means managers may have to make a decision before knowing whether his back is an issue again. Justin Herbert’s finger injury appears to be less of a concern, as imaging came back negative and Jim Harbaugh said he should be good to go. That helps the Chargers’ passing game, but it doesn’t solve McConkey’s playing-time problem in a winless offense that has struggled to produce. Check his final injury designation before Monday. I’m sitting McConkey because his inconsistent snap share and the uncertainty surrounding his back make him too risky to trust in a Monday night game.
Tight Ends to Start
Hunter Henry, TE (NE)
Hunter Henry’s foot is the deciding factor this week. He’s played through the injury over the last two games, but his role shrank to a route on less than a quarter of New England’s pass plays in Week 8 and about half in Week 9. He was limited in practice again Wednesday. Before the injury, Henry was one of the steadier tight ends in fantasy, averaging 13.4 PPR points per game from Weeks 4 through 7 while catching 19 of 21 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns. He’s caught 32 of his 37 targets this season, and among 36 tight ends with at least 120 routes through Week 9, he ranks eighth in yards per route run. That efficiency is what makes him worth starting if his workload starts moving back toward normal. If his routes stay limited, even a strong matchup won’t give him enough opportunities.
The matchup is as good as it gets for the position. Detroit has allowed 25.1 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends this season, the most in the NFL, and the Lions have continued to give up production to the position in recent weeks. Henry doesn’t need a heavy target load to take advantage, given how efficiently he’s turned his targets into yardage this season. That makes his practice reports the key piece of information before Sunday. A full practice later in the week would suggest his route share is headed back toward the 55% to 70% range he played at before the injury. I’m starting Henry as a low-end TE1 if his foot is improving, and I’d have a backup option ready in case he’s limited again Friday.
Dalton Kincaid, TE (BUF)
Dalton Kincaid’s weekly production comes down to how many targets he gets. He’s been one of the most efficient tight ends in football, ranking second among qualifying tight ends in yards per route run and eighth in targets per route run, and he’s the TE10 in PPR points per game. But he’s also finished with fewer than six PPR points in four of his eight games. The difference has been volume. Kincaid has produced at least 18 PPR points three times this season, including 225 receiving yards and a touchdown in his first two games and four catches for 86 yards and a score against Baltimore in Week 8, and all three of those games came with at least six targets. In his four games under six points, he received three or fewer targets. His part-time role is the reason for those swings, as he ran a route on about half of Buffalo’s pass plays against Minnesota in Week 9.
The Jets are a favorable matchup, allowing 14.6 PPR points per game to tight ends this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. They’ve also given up plenty of yardage per target to the position recently, which suits a tight end who can turn a handful of looks into a big day. Kincaid was limited in practice Wednesday with an ankle injury, which adds some risk to a role that was already inconsistent. If he gets back to six or more targets, he has shown he can deliver an 18-point performance. If he’s limited to two or three, he’ll likely disappoint again. I’m starting Kincaid as a TE1 because his efficiency gives him one of the highest ceilings at the position, but managers should accept that a low-volume dud is part of the package.
Kyle Pitts, TE (ATL)
Kyle Pitts is the TE22 in PPR points per game, but his role has been steady even as his production has dipped. He’s commanded roughly 20% of Atlanta’s targets over his last five games and has run a route on at least 76% of the Falcons’ pass plays in each of his last two. During a three-game stretch from Weeks 5 through 7, he scored four touchdowns and averaged 17.1 PPR points per game. Since then, he’s caught just five of 10 targets for 29 yards, and the problem has been the offense around him. Atlanta has scored 17 points combined over its last two games, and Michael Penix Jr. completed 20 of 31 passes for just 162 yards against Cincinnati in Week 9. Pitts’ routes haven’t translated into much production in that environment, and his fantasy outlook depends on whether the Falcons can move the ball again.
Kansas City gives Atlanta’s offense a chance to get back on track at tight end. The Chiefs have allowed 16.9 PPR points per game to tight ends this season, the sixth-most in the NFL, and they’ve continued to give up production to the position in recent weeks. Pitts’ route share and target share give him the volume needed to take advantage if the passing game cooperates. The risk is that Atlanta’s offense keeps stalling, and another five-point game is possible if it does. That makes him a stronger start for managers without a reliable tight end than for those choosing between him and an established option. I’m starting Pitts as a fringe TE1 because his steady role and a favorable matchup give him upside, but I’d only use him if my alternative is a streamer.
Tight Ends to Sit
Sam LaPorta, TE (DET)
Sam LaPorta is the TE8 in PPR points per game, and his talent makes this the toughest sit on the list. But his production has fallen off over the last month. After scoring at least 17 PPR points in three of his first five games, he’s averaged just 5.5 PPR points over his last three, catching eight passes for 83 yards. His target share has bounced back above 20% in each of the last two games after a one-target performance against Green Bay in Week 7, so the volume hasn’t disappeared. What has disappeared are his scoring chances. LaPorta received five end-zone targets over his first five games, but he hasn’t had one in his last three. In a Detroit offense with so many options, those end-zone looks were a big part of what separated his strong weeks from his quiet ones.
New England has been a tougher matchup for tight ends, allowing 10.8 PPR points per game to the position this season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. That’s a difficult environment for a tight end who has been averaging fewer than three catches per game recently. LaPorta’s role in a high-scoring Detroit offense keeps him in the conversation, and a touchdown would quickly change his outlook. But without end-zone targets, his recent floor has been too low to count on against a defense that has limited the position. I’m sitting LaPorta in shallower leagues if you have another strong tight end option, but he remains a start for managers without a reliable alternative.
Tucker Kraft, TE (GB)
Tucker Kraft is the TE13 in PPR points per game, and he’s coming off a quiet performance against New England in Week 9. He caught one pass for one yard and added eight rushing yards on two carries, finishing with 1.9 PPR points as Green Bay scored 45 points without him being much of a factor. That followed back-to-back games with a touchdown, including six catches for 53 yards and a score against Carolina in Week 8. Kraft has commanded between 11% and 23% of Green Bay’s targets each week, and among qualifying tight ends, he ranks 15th in targets per route run and 19th in yards per route run. That puts him in the middle of the position, which makes his production heavily dependent on scoring.
His first game against Minnesota shows why this matchup is a problem. Kraft caught three of six targets for 65 yards in Week 1, a strong yardage total, and still finished with just 9.5 PPR points because he didn’t score. The Vikings have allowed 9.3 PPR points per game to tight ends this season, the fewest in the NFL, and they’ve given up only one touchdown to the position over their last five games. Even a productive game for Kraft against this defense may not be enough to deliver a useful fantasy performance. I’m sitting Kraft because he needs a touchdown to return value, and Minnesota has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends than any team in the league.
T.J. Hockenson, TE (MIN)
T.J. Hockenson’s health is the first question for fantasy managers this week. Minnesota did not hold practice Wednesday, but its estimated report listed him as a non-participant with wrist and chest injuries. When healthy, Hockenson has been one of the more productive tight ends this season, ranking ninth in PPR points per game and fourth among qualifying tight ends in targets per route run. He’s scored touchdowns in two of his last three games, and he played 83% of Minnesota’s snaps against Buffalo in Week 9, catching four of seven targets for 33 yards. If his injuries limit his practice participation later in the week, there’s a real chance he’s either inactive or playing at less than full strength.
Green Bay adds to the risk. The Packers have allowed 9.7 PPR points per game to tight ends this season, the second-fewest in the NFL, and they haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position over their last five games. Hockenson did catch four of five targets for 36 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay in Week 1, so he has produced against this defense before. Minnesota’s quarterback situation is also unsettled, with Kirk Cousins acquired this week and the Vikings yet to name a starter. I’m sitting Hockenson in shallower leagues if you have a healthy alternative, and I’d check Friday’s injury report before making a final decision in deeper formats.
Defenses to Start
Baltimore Ravens D/ST (vs. LAC)
Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been a reliable fantasy option this season, averaging just 3.8 fantasy points per game. The Ravens have allowed 26.2 points per game and have produced only 17 sacks and nine takeaways. This start is about the opponent. The Chargers are the only winless team in the NFL, and their offense has been the most generous unit in football for opposing defenses. Los Angeles has allowed 11.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, the most in the league, while giving up the second-most sacks (31) and committing 19 turnovers, tied for the most in the NFL.
The Chargers have also scored just 15.1 points per game, the fewest in the league, so even a Baltimore defense that has struggled should be able to keep the points-allowed total in a useful range. Justin Herbert’s finger imaging came back negative, and Jim Harbaugh said he should be good to go, so the Ravens won’t be facing a backup quarterback. But the Chargers’ protection and ball security have been problems all season, regardless of who’s under center. Baltimore’s own numbers make this a matchup play rather than a trust play. I’m starting the Ravens because the Chargers have allowed the second-most sacks, are tied for the most turnovers and have scored the fewest points in the league.
Buffalo Bills D/ST (at NYJ)
Buffalo’s defense has been an average fantasy option, scoring 6.4 fantasy points per game, but it has done a solid job creating turnovers. The Bills have forced 12 takeaways this season, tied for the ninth-most in the league, which gives them a path to points even when the pass rush is quiet. That pass rush has been the weakness, as Buffalo has just 17 sacks this season. The Bills have also allowed 23.4 points per game, so they haven’t been a dependable source of points-allowed bonuses.
The Jets give Buffalo’s pass rush a chance to get going. New York has allowed 28 sacks this season, the fourth-most in the NFL, and has scored just 20.2 points per game, the eighth-fewest. Buffalo’s offense should also help its defense, as the Bills lead the league at 32.0 points per game and could force the Jets to throw more than they’d like. That’s the kind of game script that creates sack and turnover opportunities, even for a pass rush that hasn’t been consistent. I’m starting the Bills as a DST1 because the Jets’ protection problems and a likely pass-heavy game script give Buffalo’s defense real sack upside.
Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs. MIN)
Green Bay has one of the most productive defenses in fantasy football. The Packers are averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game, and they’ve forced 19 takeaways, second only to Tampa Bay’s 21. They’ve also recorded 26 sacks, tied for the fourth-most in the league, including 10 over their last two games. Their ability to force interceptions stands out, as Green Bay has picked off 4.0% of opponents’ pass attempts, the third-highest rate in the NFL. That combination of pressure and turnovers gives the Packers one of the highest weekly floors at the position.
Minnesota’s quarterback situation makes this an even better spot. Kirk Cousins was traded to the Vikings this week and hasn’t been confirmed as the starter, while Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and Carson Wentz is dealing with an ankle injury. Whoever starts will be working behind a line that has allowed 23 sacks, tied for the 10th-most in the league, in an offense that has averaged just 18.3 points per game. A quarterback with only a few practices in the offense, facing one of the league’s most opportunistic defenses, is a difficult combination for Minnesota. I’m starting the Packers as a DST1 because their turnover production and Minnesota’s quarterback uncertainty give them one of the best matchups of the week.
Defenses to Sit
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST (at CIN)
Pittsburgh has been one of the best fantasy defenses this season, averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game, the third-most in the league. The Steelers have recorded 26 sacks and forced 13 takeaways while allowing just 18.0 points per game, and they’re coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare. On talent alone, this is a defense that would be in most lineups every week.
The matchup is the problem. Cincinnati is averaging 30.0 points per game, the second-most in the NFL, and Joe Burrow has thrown 16 touchdown passes over his last four games. The Bengals have also kept Burrow upright, allowing just 15 sacks this season, and they’ve given up only 4.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, the 10th-fewest in the league. That limits the sacks and turnovers Pittsburgh would need to overcome a high points-allowed total. Cincinnati scored 27 points in the first meeting between these teams, which left little room for fantasy production. I’m sitting the Steelers in shallower leagues because Cincinnati’s offense limits both their sack upside and their points-allowed floor, although managers without a better option can still start them.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST (at DAL)
San Francisco’s defense has been productive overall, averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game. The 49ers have allowed 19.5 points per game and forced 12 takeaways, while adding two defensive touchdowns. However, their pass rush hasn’t matched their overall production. San Francisco has recorded just 15 sacks this season, the fifth-fewest in the league, so its fantasy output has depended more on turnovers and touchdowns than consistent pressure.
Dallas is a tough matchup for opposing defenses. The Cowboys have allowed just 3.4 fantasy points per game to defenses, the eighth-fewest in the league, while giving up only 14 sacks. They’re also averaging 27.3 points per game, and this game carries a 55.5-point total, the highest on the Week 10 schedule. That points toward a high-scoring game where San Francisco will have a difficult time keeping the points-allowed total in a useful range. Without a reliable pass rush, the 49ers would need a turnover-heavy day or another defensive touchdown to deliver a strong performance. I’m sitting the 49ers because their limited sack production and a Dallas offense that protects its quarterback make them a risky option in a likely shootout.
New England Patriots D/ST (at DET, Munich)
New England’s defense has been a middle-of-the-pack fantasy option, averaging 5.8 fantasy points per game. The Patriots have generated plenty of pressure with 25 sacks, but they’ve forced only eight takeaways, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. They’ve also allowed 23.0 points per game, and they’re coming off a 45-27 loss to Green Bay.
Detroit is a difficult offense for defenses to take advantage of. The Lions are averaging 27.8 points per game, the fifth-most in the NFL, and they’ve committed just five turnovers all season, tied for the second-fewest in the league. They’ve also allowed only 3.1 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. New England’s pass rush gives it some upside, but a defense that rarely forces turnovers is facing an offense that rarely commits them. I’m sitting the Patriots because the Lions protect the football too well and score too often for New England to deliver a useful fantasy performance.
Kickers to Start
Spencer Shrader, K (IND)
Spencer Shrader’s range is what makes him one of the most valuable kickers in fantasy football. He’s made 22 of 24 field-goal attempts across nine appearances, including eight of nine from 50 yards or longer, and he’s averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game. Indianapolis has consistently trusted him with long attempts, which gives him scoring chances on drives that stall well outside the red zone. He’s coming off a strong game against Dallas in Week 9, making all three of his field goals, two from 50 yards or longer, and both extra points for 16 fantasy points.
Shrader did have two quiet weeks before that, scoring three and one fantasy point in Weeks 7 and 8, so his production can swing with Indianapolis’ field-goal volume. Miami gives him a good chance to bounce back. The Colts are favored at home, and the Dolphins will start Kyle McCord in his first NFL start, which could give Indianapolis additional possessions if Miami’s offense struggles to move the ball. Even if the Colts’ drives stall, Shrader’s range means many of those possessions can still turn into points. I’m starting Shrader as a top-10 kicker because his long-range accuracy and Indianapolis’ favorable matchup give him one of the highest ceilings at the position.
Eddy Piñeiro, K (SF)
Eddy Piñeiro’s value comes from the offense around him. San Francisco is averaging 29.4 points per game, the third-most in the NFL, and the 49ers are playing in a game with a 55.5-point total, the highest on the Week 10 schedule. Piñeiro hasn’t attempted many field goals, making seven of 10 this season, but he’s made 26 extra points, giving him a steady source of points when the 49ers finish drives in the end zone. He’s averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game, and he scored eight points against Las Vegas in Week 9.
Dallas has allowed 26.2 points per game, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL, which should give San Francisco plenty of scoring opportunities. In a game where both offenses are expected to move the ball, Piñeiro’s extra-point volume gives him a reasonable floor, and any stalled drives in Dallas territory should turn into field-goal attempts. The tradeoff is that an offense this good often finishes drives with touchdowns, which limits his field-goal chances, and he’s missed four extra points this season. I’m starting Piñeiro as a matchup streamer because San Francisco’s offense and the highest-scoring game environment of the week give him plenty of opportunities to put up points.
Ryan Fitzgerald, K (CAR)
Ryan Fitzgerald has been one of the more accurate kickers in the league, making 13 of 14 field-goal attempts, including all three from 50 yards or longer. He’s averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game, and his range gives him upside in an offense that hasn’t always finished drives in the end zone. He’s coming off a quiet game against Denver in Week 9, when he made three extra points but missed his only field-goal attempt, finishing with two fantasy points. The week before, he made two field goals, including a 50-yarder, and an extra point against Green Bay for nine fantasy points.
The setting works in his favor this week. Carolina plays indoors at the Caesars Superdome, where conditions won’t be a factor on long attempts, and Bryce Young’s passing volume should keep the Panthers moving against New Orleans. Fitzgerald’s perfect mark from 50 yards or longer means any drive that stalls past midfield has a good chance to turn into points. His production will depend on how often Carolina stalls in field-goal range, which makes him more of a streamer than a weekly starter. I’m starting Fitzgerald as a streaming option because his accuracy and an indoor game give him a good chance at multiple field goals.
Kickers to Sit
Matt Gay, K (LV)
Matt Gay has been productive this season, averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game and making 19 of 21 field-goal attempts. His best game came against Kansas City in Week 4, when he made four field goals and an extra point. But his outlook this week depends on the Raiders’ offense, and that offense looks very different. Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota this week, and Fernando Mendoza was named the starter for his first NFL start. Cousins had thrown 20 touchdown passes, the second-most in the league.
The Raiders are implied for just 17 points as 6.5-point underdogs against Seattle, which is the main reason to sit Gay. A low team total limits his opportunities for both field goals and extra points, and a quarterback making his first start adds uncertainty to how often Las Vegas will be able to move into scoring range. Gay’s accuracy keeps him in the conversation in deeper leagues, and he could still produce if the Raiders’ drives stall in field-goal range. But there’s too much uncertainty around the offense to count on his usual production. I’m sitting Gay because the Raiders’ low scoring projection and Mendoza’s first start limit his opportunities.
Chad Ryland, K (ARI)
Chad Ryland has made 20 of 22 field-goal attempts this season and is averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game. His best performance came against the Rams in Week 6, when he made all six of his field-goal attempts for 19 fantasy points. That game is the best reason to consider starting him this week. However, his production has been inconsistent, and he scored just three fantasy points against Seattle in Week 9. Carson Beck was named Arizona’s starter, and the Cardinals’ offense has struggled to sustain drives.
That Week 6 performance came in a different situation. Arizona is now implied for just 15 points as a 9.5-point underdog, one of the lowest projections of the week. When an offense is expected to struggle this much, even a kicker who has done well against this opponent can see his opportunities dry up. Ryland’s accuracy gives him a path to points if Arizona can move into field-goal range, and another multiple-field-goal game wouldn’t be shocking. But the Cardinals’ low scoring projection makes it hard to count on that happening. I’m sitting Ryland because Arizona’s limited scoring outlook makes another six-field-goal game unlikely.
Andy Borregales, K (NE)
Andy Borregales hasn’t attempted a field goal in two of his last six games, and that lack of volume is the biggest reason to sit him. He’s been accurate, making 10 of 13 field-goal attempts and 23 of 24 extra points, but he hasn’t attempted more than three field goals in any game this season. He’s averaging 6.0 fantasy points per game, and he’s coming off two quiet performances, scoring five and three points over his last two games.
Detroit could also limit New England’s scoring opportunities. The Lions are averaging 27.8 points per game and have committed just five turnovers, which could keep the Patriots from getting many short fields. New England is also dealing with injuries in its backfield, with TreVeyon Henderson out with an illness and Rhamondre Stevenson missing Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. That could make it harder for the offense to sustain drives into field-goal range. I’m sitting Borregales because his limited field-goal volume and New England’s offensive questions give him too low a ceiling to start.
