Making the right start ’em, sit ’em decisions can be the difference between winning and losing your fantasy football matchup each week. Throughout the 2026 NFL season, we’ll break down the best fantasy football starts and sits at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense, and kicker. Using matchups, usage trends, advanced stats, injuries, and scoring opportunities, this weekly Start ’Em, Sit ’Em guide will highlight the players you should trust in your lineup and the ones you may want to leave on the bench.
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Quarterbacks to Start
Malik Willis, QB (MIA)
Malik Willis is finally putting together the kind of fantasy production that makes his rushing upside worth chasing. Over his last three games, Willis has scored 18.9, 26.0, and 14.6 fantasy points, averaging 19.8 per game while accounting for five total touchdowns. He’s thrown multiple passing touchdowns in consecutive starts, completing 66.7% and 65.6% of his attempts after struggling with his accuracy earlier in the season. The rushing ability remains an important part of his fantasy outlook, with 225 yards and three touchdowns on the ground through seven appearances. Willis hasn’t become a consistently efficient passer overnight, but the recent improvement gives him a much stronger foundation than he had a few weeks ago. He’s also practiced fully despite dealing with a groin injury, which is encouraging ahead of Sunday’s matchup.
Detroit might be the perfect opponent to keep that momentum going. The Lions have surrendered 24.81 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, with all seven starters scoring at least 16.96 points against them. They’ve also allowed 3.7 rushing fantasy points per game to the position, creating an especially appealing matchup for a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs. Detroit’s defense is dealing with significant injuries as well. Linebacker Jack Campbell and cornerback D.J. Reed missed Wednesday’s practice, while safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph were limited. Their availability will be important to monitor, particularly with the secondary already struggling to prevent quarterback production. I’m starting Willis as a high-upside streaming option and a potential back-end QB1 this week. The passing game still carries some risk, but his recent scoring and Detroit’s defensive vulnerabilities make this one of his most appealing matchups of the season.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC)
The Patrick Mahomes rebound finally arrived against Denver, and I’m expecting another strong fantasy performance against the Jets. Mahomes completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns, finishing with 25.4 fantasy points in his first QB1 performance since Week 2. Getting Rashee Rice back gave Kansas City’s passing attack a much-needed boost, particularly on shorter throws where Mahomes has been extremely effective. He’s averaging 6.11 air yards per attempt, the lowest among qualifying quarterbacks, but still ranks fourth in passing success rate and ninth in yards per attempt. That approach has allowed Kansas City to generate production after the catch, which accounts for 66.6% of Mahomes’ passing yardage. With Rice back in the offense and Mahomes coming off his best statistical performance in weeks, there’s plenty of reason to feel confident about his outlook.
New York has become one of the most favorable matchups for opposing quarterbacks. Over the last three games, the Jets have allowed Drake Maye, Malik Willis and Kirk Cousins to score 23.8, 26.0 and 28.2 fantasy points, respectively. The problems extend beyond those box scores. Over their last five games, New York has surrendered the fifth-highest passing success rate, sixth-highest passing touchdown rate, and fifth-most fantasy points per dropback. The Jets have particularly struggled defending underneath throws, which aligns perfectly with how Mahomes and Kansas City are attacking opposing defenses. There’s always a chance the Chiefs establish control early and lean more heavily on Kenneth Walker III, but the matchup provides too many advantages to overthink. I’m confidently starting Mahomes as a QB1 this week, with legitimate top-five upside if Kansas City’s passing offense carries its momentum into Sunday.
Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR)
Matthew Stafford hasn’t needed to throw nearly as often over the last two games, but Washington presents an excellent opportunity for his fantasy production to rebound. Stafford managed just 157 passing yards and one touchdown against the Chargers as the Rams continued leaning on their rushing attack. Los Angeles has posted dropback rates of only 44.1% and 49.1% over its last two games, making passing volume the biggest concern for Stafford’s weekly ceiling. His average target depth has also declined from 9.0 yards over the first four games to 5.4 over the last four, reflecting a passing attack that’s operating closer to the line of scrimmage. That approach can still create efficient production, but it becomes difficult to generate substantial yardage when the attempts aren’t there. The matchup against Washington gives Stafford a much better opportunity to capitalize on the throws he does receive.
The Commanders have allowed a 5.9% passing touchdown rate while surrendering touchdowns on 79.2% of opponents’ red-zone possessions, creating a favorable environment for quarterback production. There’s also an interesting schematic advantage for Los Angeles. When facing base defenses with multiple tight ends on the field, Stafford has completed 69.4% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and just one interception. Washington has matched those offensive formations with base defense 76% of the time, giving the Rams an opportunity to attack a matchup Stafford has handled efficiently. Los Angeles could still lean on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, particularly if it establishes an early lead, but Washington’s defensive struggles provide enough scoring upside to offset some of the volume concerns. I’m starting Stafford as a back-end QB1 with the potential to finish considerably higher if the Rams generate multiple passing touchdowns.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Bryce Young, QB (CAR)
Bryce Young is having a difficult time overcoming Carolina’s protection problems, and the matchup against Denver isn’t going to make things any easier. He’s completed fewer than 60% of his passes in four of his last five games while performing 3.7 percentage points below his expected completion rate. Young has been pressured on 45.6% of his dropbacks this season, making it difficult for the Panthers to consistently establish their passing attack. Over the last two games against Tampa Bay and Green Bay, he faced pressure on approximately half of his dropbacks and completed just 10 of 26 passes for 108 yards under pressure while taking 11 sacks. His knee injury has also limited his ability to escape difficult situations, with a scramble rate around 2% providing very little rushing upside to compensate for the inconsistent passing production.
Denver’s defense is particularly well equipped to exploit those weaknesses. The Broncos have generated pressure on 40.3% of opposing dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, while their 21.7% quick pressure rate ranks second. They’ve also held quarterbacks to a 58.7% completion rate, 6.5 yards per attempt, and a 3.6% passing touchdown rate. That’s a difficult combination for a quarterback already struggling to operate behind an offensive line allowing frequent disruption. Carolina could be forced into a pass-heavy game script if Denver establishes an early lead, but additional attempts won’t necessarily translate into useful production when drives are repeatedly disrupted by sacks. I’m sitting Young in all typical one-quarterback formats this week. Even in superflex leagues, he’s a low-ceiling QB2 who carries more risk than managers should be comfortable accepting when other options are available.
C.J. Stroud, QB (HOU)
C.J. Stroud has been a relatively dependable fantasy quarterback this season, but the Chargers present one of his most difficult matchups yet. Through seven games, Stroud has thrown for 1,867 yards and 11 touchdowns against just one interception, with a 9.10-yard average target depth reflecting Houston’s willingness to push the ball downfield. However, the production hasn’t always required substantial passing volume. Before the Texans’ bye, Stroud threw for a season-low 153 yards against the Giants, with two passing touchdowns salvaging an otherwise disappointing fantasy performance. That type of touchdown efficiency becomes much harder to rely on against a defense that has consistently limited opposing quarterbacks. Stroud’s relatively modest rushing contributions also leave him more dependent on passing yards and touchdowns than the dual-threat quarterbacks available in similar ranking ranges.
Despite their struggles as a team, the Chargers have quietly been one of the NFL’s toughest defenses for fantasy quarterbacks. They’ve allowed just 11.2 passing fantasy points per game, the fourth-fewest in football, and only one opposing quarterback has recorded a weekly QB1 finish all season. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford all failed to finish inside the top 12 against Los Angeles, while each of the last four opposing quarterbacks has scored fewer than 14 fantasy points. The Chargers have also forced shorter throws, allowing an average target depth of just 6.5 yards, the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. Opponents are attempting only 28 passes per game against them, the second-fewest, as teams have increasingly attacked their defense on the ground. That combination of limited passing volume and difficult coverage makes Stroud’s ceiling particularly concerning. I’m sitting him in standard one-quarterback leagues in favor of quarterbacks with more favorable matchups and greater opportunities for fantasy production.
Caleb Williams, QB (CHI)
Caleb Williams has looked considerably more comfortable throwing the football since returning from his hamstring injury, but his rushing production has practically disappeared. Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown against Seattle, finishing with just 13.98 fantasy points as D’Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns. Through five appearances, Williams is completing 70.9% of his passes and performing 7.6 percentage points above his expected completion rate, demonstrating real improvement as a passer. The fantasy concern is what he’s no longer providing on the ground. Williams rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns over his first two games before suffering the hamstring injury, but he’s managed just 22 rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns across his three appearances since returning. Without that additional production, he’s become considerably more dependent on passing touchdowns to deliver a strong fantasy performance.
Tampa Bay presents another difficult matchup for a quarterback who isn’t generating the same rushing upside. The Buccaneers have allowed just 10.8 passing fantasy points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL, while limiting opponents to 6.5 yards per attempt and a 3.7% passing touchdown rate. They’ve also generated interceptions on 4.4% of opposing pass attempts, the highest rate in football. Chicago’s offensive approach adds another concern, with the Bears passing on just 37.7% of their red-zone plays, ranking 30th. That leaves Williams vulnerable to another productive real-life performance that doesn’t necessarily translate into a strong fantasy finish. His passing efficiency remains encouraging, but the combination of reduced rushing production, a difficult secondary, and Chicago’s preference for running near the goal line makes this a tough spot. I’m sitting Williams when a comparable quarterback with a better matchup is available, although he remains a fringe QB1 if managers don’t have a stronger alternative.
Running Backs to Start
Quinshon Judkins, RB (CLE)
Quinshon Judkins has struggled to produce behind Cleveland’s offensive line, but the matchup against New Orleans is exactly what he needs to get back on track. Judkins managed just 25 rushing yards on 11 carries against Pittsburgh and is now averaging 3.39 yards per carry with a 28.7% rushing success rate this season. His −0.25 EPA per attempt ranks among the more concerning marks for starting running backs, while his 2.50 yards after contact per carry shows how much he has been struggling this season. Dylan Sampson’s return has also hurt his fantasy outlook, with his role in the receiving game almost being non-existent now. However, Judkins remains Cleveland’s primary early-down and goal-line running back, handling 68% of the team’s rushing attempts and every goal-line carry over the last two games, which plays right into the matchup this week against the Saints
New Orleans has been one of the worst rushing defenses in football, making this a favorable spot for Judkins despite his recent struggles. The Saints have allowed 139.4 rushing yards per game, +0.04 EPA per rush, and a 55.7% rushing success rate, while producing the league’s lowest stuff rate. They’ve also surrendered the second-most yards before contact to opposing running backs. The fantasy production has been just as bad, with New Orleans allowing a league-high 27.9 half-PPR points per game to running backs, including 21.2 from rushing production alone. Judkins doesn’t need to suddenly become an efficient three-down runner to take advantage of this matchup. I’m starting Judkins as a high-end RB2 this week because his rushing workload and the Saints’ defensive struggles give him one of his best opportunities to produce in recent weeks.
Blake Corum, RB (LAR)
Blake Corum is making it increasingly difficult for the Rams to keep him under 40% of snaps every week. Over his last two games, Corum has rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries while continuing to outperform Kyren Williams in rushing efficiency. He’s averaging 5.19 yards per carry this season with a 56% rushing success rate and +0.18 EPA per attempt. Los Angeles offensive line has also created favorable rushing opportunities, generating 1.87 yards before contact per running back attempt compared with a league average of 1.15. The biggest development for Corum’s fantasy outlook has been his increasing involvement near the goal line. After receiving zero red-zone carries through Week 4, he’s handled nine since Week 5 compared with eight for Williams. Corum still isn’t receiving enough passing-game involvement to provide a dependable weekly floor, but his efficiency and growing scoring role have made him a legitimate flex option.
Washington has been more effective against the run than its overall defensive performance suggests, allowing just 3.65 yards per carry and 75.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. The Commanders have also allowed only 19.5 PPR points per game to the position, making this a tougher matchup than fantasy managers might expect. However, Washington has surrendered touchdowns on 79.2% of opposing red-zone possessions, creating a favorable opportunity for a Rams offense that has increasingly involved Corum near the goal line. Los Angeles enters as the favorite and has leaned heavily on its backfield over the last several weeks without Davante Adams. With his recent production over the last few weeks, it is impossible to avoid getting Corum in your lineups this week.
Jonah Coleman, RB (DEN)
Jonah Coleman has taken control of Denver’s backfield, and his expanded workload makes him one of my favorite running back starts this week. Against Kansas City, Coleman finished with 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 15 touches, including four receptions for 63 yards on five targets. He also handled six red-zone carries, four of which came from the five-yard line or closer. Coleman played 66% of the offensive snaps compared with just 21% for J.K. Dobbins, continuing a significant shift in the Broncos’ backfield rotation. His efficiency has been encouraging as well, with a 54.5% rushing success rate against Kansas City, while also inheriting RJ Harvey’s receiving role. Coleman has also generated runs of at least 10 yards on 16.7% of his carries, more than three times Dobbins’ rate. The workload, receiving involvement, and scoring opportunities all point toward Coleman becoming Denver’s most valuable fantasy running back in Denver.
Carolina provides an excellent opportunity for that role to translate into another strong performance. The Panthers have allowed 123.1 rushing yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns this season, while opposing running backs have averaged approximately 28.3 PPR points, 116 rushing yards and 1.6 total touchdowns per game. Carolina has also surrendered 1.61 yards before contact per carry, the fifth-most in the NFL. The Panthers’ struggles near the goal line are particularly concerning, as they’ve allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponents’ red-zone possessions, the highest rate in football. I’m confidently starting Coleman as an RB2 with RB1 upside because his workload and receiving ability provide a strong foundation against one of the league’s most favorable running back matchups.
Running Backs to Sit
Ollie Gordon II, RB (MIA)
Last week, Ollie Gordon handled 19 carries for 69 yards against New England, failing to catch his only target and finishing with just 6.9 PPR points. Five of his rushing attempts were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, contributing to another inefficient fantasy performance despite a substantial workload. He’s averaging 2.99 yards after contact per carry this season, but his 31.87% rushing success rate demonstrates how infrequently those attempts have resulted in positive plays. The bigger problem is his lack of involvement in Miami’s passing attack. Gordon has caught just six passes for 14 yards through seven appearances, leaving almost his entire fantasy production dependent on rushing opportunities and touchdowns. That makes him particularly vulnerable in games where Miami struggles to establish the run or falls behind early.
Detroit has been one of the more difficult matchups for opposing running backs, and its defensive efficiency makes this a concerning spot for Gordon. The Lions have allowed just 96.6 rushing yards per game and −0.06 EPA per rush while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns to running backs through seven games. They’ve also limited opposing backs to 16.2 half-PPR points per game, among the lowest marks in the NFL. Detroit has been considerably more vulnerable against the pass, allowing +0.15 EPA per passing play, which creates a more favorable matchup for Malik Willis and Miami’s receivers than for Gordon. The Lions’ defensive injuries could make the overall matchup easier, but that doesn’t change how little Gordon contributes when Miami needs to throw. If the Dolphins fall behind, the additional passing opportunities are unlikely to benefit a running back with six receptions all season. I’m sitting Gordon because his limited receiving role and Detroit’s strong rushing defense leave him heavily dependent on a touchdown to deliver a useful fantasy performance.
Tyler Allgeier, RB (ARI)
Tyler Allgeier is coming off one of the biggest fantasy performances of Week 8, but I’m not expecting anything close to that production against Seattle. He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries against Dallas while adding five receptions for 44 yards and another score. However, 115 of those rushing yards came on two attempts, leaving him with just 32 yards on his other nine carries. His season-long efficiency has been considerably less impressive, with a 31.94% rushing success rate and −0.09 EPA per attempt. The injuries to Arizona’s backfield have created a much clearer path toward touches, with Jeremiyah Love on injured reserve and Bam Knight working through concussion protocol. Allgeier also has a toe injury of his own, making his practice participation important to monitor. The opportunity is certainly appealing if he remains Arizona’s featured back, but the underlying rushing efficiency suggests last week’s explosive production isn’t something fantasy managers should expect consistently.
Seattle presents one of the toughest rushing matchups in football, making it difficult to trust Allgeier even with an increased workload. The Seahawks have allowed just 94 rushing yards per game while holding opposing offenses to −0.10 EPA per rush and −0.13 EPA per play. Entering Week 8, Seattle was surrendering only 3.22 yards per carry. Arizona will also be facing a defense allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt, creating additional concerns about the Cardinals’ ability to sustain drives and generate scoring opportunities. I’m sitting Allgeier in favor of another established RB2 or flex option because the combination of a difficult rushing matchup, inefficient season-long production, and questionable offensive environment limits his upside.
Woody Marks, RB (HOU)
Marks’ problem has been converting opportunity into fantasy production. David Montgomery has been ruled out, leaving Marks positioned for another substantial workload. Against the Giants, he played 54 of Houston’s 61 offensive snaps, handled every running back carry and finished with 81 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. He has nevertheless gone three straight games without scoring, while his receptions have declined from four to two to one. His season-long efficiency includes a 35.06% rushing success rate and −0.18 EPA per attempt. There is also an important distinction behind his 3.52 yards per carry: approximately 2.96 yards have come after contact. Limited room before contact has contributed to the disappointing results, so blaming everything on Marks would oversimplify the problem.
The Chargers offer a favorable fantasy matchup, although their underlying run defense is more competitive than the points allowed suggest. They have limited opponents to −0.10 EPA per rush but surrendered 124.6 total rushing yards per game and 11 total rushing touchdowns. Those totals include all runners; Los Angeles has separately allowed 22.5 half-PPR points per game to running backs. Opponents have also thrown 2.5 percentage points below expectation against the Chargers, creating a plausible route to another heavy rushing workload for Marks. I’m not treating Marks as a confident RB2 despite the favorable matchup due to his inefficient numbers and his performances as of late despite a heavy workload. He’s a volume-dependent flex with a limited ceiling, and I’d favor a similarly projected back offering better receiving involvement or more explosive rushing production.
Wide Receivers to Start
Keenan Allen, WR (IND)
Keenan Allen continues to earn enough targets to remain a useful fantasy starter, and Dallas gives him one of his better matchups of the season. Allen caught all seven targets for 67 yards last week, finishing with 13.7 PPR points without a touchdown. He has now received at least seven targets in four of his last five games, providing a consistent workload despite Indianapolis’ struggles through the air. His 21.2% target share and 26.2% first-read share show how regularly the Colts are looking towards him, while his 1.80 yards per route run is respectable enough with that target share to lead to some fantasy production underneath. Allen has received only two deep targets and four red-zone targets, so his fantasy value remains built around receptions rather than explosive plays or touchdowns.
There should be plenty of opportunities for those receptions against a Dallas secondary that has struggled to contain opposing wideouts. Over their last five games, the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most receiving fantasy points per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter receivers. Their season-long defensive numbers have been poor as well, allowing +0.17 EPA per pass and 15 passing touchdowns. Allen doesn’t need a sudden increase in downfield usage to take advantage of that defense. His established role gives him a path to another productive afternoon, with a touchdown providing additional upside. I’m starting Allen as a WR3 or flex because his recent target volume and Dallas’ defensive struggles give him a dependable opportunity to produce.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (DEN)
Jaylen Waddle has been disappointing for most of the season, but his recent target volume gives him a chance to take advantage of Carolina’s depleted secondary. He caught three of six targets for 39 yards and a touchdown against Kansas City, adding a two-point conversion to finish with 14.9 PPR points. That result doesn’t erase the larger concern: Waddle has averaged just 29.2 receiving yards over his last six games and exceeded 50 receiving yards only once this season. His 1.54 yards per route run and 56.86% catch rate reflect those struggles. However, he has received at least six targets in three consecutive games and maintains a 22.67% season-long target share. The opportunities are still there, even though the production has rarely followed.
Carolina’s injuries are the reason I’m willing to take another chance on him this week. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson remain sidelined, leaving the Panthers short-handed in the secondary. Carolina has allowed seven receivers to reach at least 12.7 PPR points over its last four games, including three who exceeded 17 points over the last two. Denver’s passing game has shown improvement, with Nix averaging 7.3 yards per attempt over his last two games compared with 6.0 for the season. Carolina’s 6.4 yards allowed per attempt still warrants respect, but Denver enters this matchup throwing the ball more efficiently than its season-long numbers suggest. Denver could still lean heavily on the run, but Waddle’s three-game streak of six-plus targets provides enough opportunity to justify the play. I’m starting him as an aggressive WR3 or flex because the secondary injuries create a better chance for those targets to finally translate into yardage.
KC Concepcion, WR (CLE)
KC Concepcion’s Week 8 production was disappointing, but his playing time remained encouraging heading into a much better matchup. After catching eight of 10 targets for 129 yards against Tennessee, he finished with three receptions for 37 yards on four targets against Pittsburgh. His snap share increased from 79% to 83%, so the quieter performance didn’t come from losing his place in the offense. Concepcion has a 19.84% target share this season with 182 of his 352 receiving yards coming after the catch. That allows Cleveland to create production through shorter throws rather than needing consistent downfield completions. His 1.54 yards per route run and lack of receiving touchdowns keep expectations reasonable, but the role supports a rebound in receptions against New Orleans.
The Saints have struggled in the areas Cleveland needs to exploit. New Orleans ranks seventh-worst in yards per target allowed to slot receivers in one Week 9 matchup analysis, while the defense ranks last in sacks with nine and generating pressure on just 28.9% of dropbacks. Those weaknesses should help Cleveland establish its shorter passing game. Deshaun Watson remains in concussion protocol, with Shedeur Sanders preparing to start if Watson isn’t cleared. That adds uncertainty to Concepcion’s target quality, but the weak pass rush gives either quarterback a better opportunity to find him before the play breaks down. I’m starting Concepcion as a WR3 or PPR flex because his playing time and matchup support a bounce-back performance, even with the uncertainty under center.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Jalen Coker, WR (CAR)
Jalen Coker’s early-season production has become harder to trust as Carolina’s passing offense struggles to handle tougher matchups. He has caught just three passes for 45 yards over his last two games, with last week’s touchdown helping cover another low-volume receiving performance. His season-long 21.26% target share and 1.83 yards per route run show why he remains relevant, but the recent floor has become much less comfortable. Across his last four games, Coker has averaged just 7.8 PPR points and finished with 9.6 or fewer three times. He can still produce when Carolina establishes rhythm, but fantasy managers are increasingly depending on a touchdown to overcome limited catches. That is a difficult foundation for a receiver heading into one of the toughest defensive matchups at the wide receiver position.
Pressure is the bigger concern here than simply talking about Denver’s elite secondary. Denver has generated pressure on 42.7% of opposing dropbacks in the matchup dataset, while allowing a 58.7% completion rate and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos have also surrendered the fourth-fewest yards per target and sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Coker’s slot usage could help him avoid some of Denver’s strongest outside coverage, but avoiding one corner doesn’t solve Carolina’s protection issues. Additional passing attempts won’t mean much if Bryce Young is unable to consistently deliver catchable throws. I’m sitting Coker because his declining production and Carolina’s inability to protect Young create too much risk against this defense.
Tre Tucker, WR (LV)
Tre Tucker’s reduced role is more concerning than the zero catches he finished with against the Jets. He played 31 of 60 offensive snaps, a 52% share, while running routes on just 59% of dropbacks. That came after an 82% snap share in Week 7, when he received 12 targets. Last week, he drew only one. Jack Bech’s return from injured reserve added another receiver to the rotation, while Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer continue to see the bulk of targets. Tucker’s season-long 13.40-yard average target depth and 16.3 yards per reception give him big-play potential, but his 17.20% target share provides little protection when his routes and snaps decline like they did last week. He needs enough downfield opportunities to make that role work, and last week’s usage moved him further away from a dependable fantasy workload.
Chasing a downfield rebound becomes less appealing against a defense that has consistently prevented shot plays this season. San Francisco has allowed only 18.6% of opposing passing plays to gain at least 10 yards, the second-lowest rate in the league, while holding opponents to 6.3 yards per attempt. Quarterbacks facing the 49ers have averaged a league-low 5.9 air yards per attempt, reflecting how difficult it has been to attack them vertically. Las Vegas will likely need to throw as a substantial road underdog, but more team attempts won’t solve Tucker’s problem if he remains off the field for a significant portion of them. I’m sitting Tucker because the reduction in routes, competition for targets, and difficult downfield matchup leave him relying too heavily on one explosive play.
Michael Wilson, WR (ARI)
Michael Wilson delivered against Dallas, but I’m expecting a much tougher afternoon in Seattle. He caught eight passes for 111 yards and a touchdown last week while adding 17 rushing yards, taking advantage of a secondary that has struggled throughout the season. His 25.80% target share remains appealing, and he has drawn a target on approximately one-quarter of his routes. However, his season-long efficiency has been less impressive, averaging 1.48 yards per route run with a 55.56% catch rate and an 11.37-yard average target depth. Wilson is also playing through two broken ribs and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. He proved last week that he can produce through the injury, but another substantial workload against a much stronger defense is a different challenge.
Seattle already held Wilson to two receptions for 18 yards in their earlier meeting this season. The Seahawks allow a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 8.6 yards per completion while holding opponents to −0.15 EPA per pass. They have also allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers and the fewest receiving points to wideouts overall. Arizona could create additional targets by falling behind, but Wilson still needs those opportunities to become catches and sustained drives. I’m sitting him because Seattle’s coverage, his inconsistent efficiency, and the rib injury make a repeat of last week’s production unlikely. His target share keeps him usable in deeper PPR leagues, but I’m keeping him out of my usual WR3 or flex spot this week.
Tight Ends to Start
Kyle Pitts, TE (ATL)
Kyle Pitts had a rough afternoon in Tampa Bay, but I’m going back to him against Cincinnati. He caught two of five targets for just six yards as Atlanta’s passing game fell apart in the rain. Before that performance, Pitts had scored at least 13 PPR points in three consecutive games. His recent usage provides a stronger argument than his season-long numbers: since Week 5, he has a 17.5% target share, a 21.2% first-read share, and six red-zone targets while running routes on 66.9% of dropbacks. His 1.40 yards per route run during that stretch isn’t particularly impressive, and touchdowns have carried a significant portion of his production. However, Atlanta continues to involve him near the end zone, and last week’s offensive collapse doesn’t erase the role he established over the previous month.
Cincinnati gives Pitts a nice bounce-back opportunity in Week 9, making him a must-start. The Bengals allow seven catches and 88.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends, both second-most in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position, so this recommendation shouldn’t depend entirely on Pitts extending his recent scoring production. The recommendation is more based on Pitts turning his recent usage in the Falcons passing game into more volume against a defense that has struggled to limit tight ends this season. Atlanta may also need to throw consistently to keep pace with Cincinnati’s offense this week, providing more passing opportunities. I’m starting Pitts as a back-end TE1 because of his recent involvement and the Bengals’ inability to contain tight ends this season.
T.J. Hockenson, TE (MIN)
T.J. Hockenson is producing again, and his role gives fantasy managers a reason to keep him in their lineups. He caught four passes for 58 yards and a touchdown against Detroit, finishing with 15.8 PPR points after posting four catches for 35 yards and a score against Indianapolis. The touchdowns have helped, but his season-long receiving profile is encouraging as well. Hockenson has a 20.44% target share, earns a target on approximately 25% of his routes, and averages 1.98 yards per route run. His 83.78% catch rate shows how consistently he has converted those opportunities into receptions. Kyler Murray has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, putting Carson Wentz under center, but Hockenson’s recent target involvement should keep him central to Minnesota’s passing attack.
Buffalo hasn’t shut down tight ends consistently enough to move Hockenson out of starting lineups. The Bills have allowed 14.1 PPR points per game to the position, and five tight ends have reached at least 11 fantasy points against them since Week 2. He has already shown that he can remain productive in Minnesota’s offense in favorable matchups at the tight end position, and that should continue as the offense looks to keep pace with Josh Allen. Another touchdown would help him deliver a higher finish, but the receiving usage supports starting him without assuming he scores for a third straight game. I’m keeping Hockenson in as a TE1 because his involvement and recent production are too encouraging as of late to bench in this good matchup.
Greg Dulcich, TE (MIA)
Greg Dulcich has become a legitimate part of Miami’s passing game, making him one of my favorite tight end streamers this week. He caught four of six targets for 43 yards against New England after catching all five targets for 86 yards against the Jets. That gives him nine receptions for 129 yards over his last two games without needing a touchdown to produce. Dulcich has also received at least five targets in four of his last five appearances, an important development after his slow start to the season not being involved in the passing attack. His season-long 1.62 yards per route run and 78.57% catch rate support his ability to turn targets into useful production. Miami’s passing volume remains a limitation, but Dulcich is earning enough work to take advantage when the matchup cooperates.
No opponent has been more generous to tight ends than Detroit. The Lions have surrendered 61 receptions, 684 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns to the position through seven games. That works out to approximately 8.7 catches and 97.7 yards per game. Dulcich hasn’t scored this season, but he doesn’t need to find the end zone for this matchup to improve his outlook with his recent usage. Something to note as well is that multiple Lions defensive backs are dealing with injuries and may miss this week’s game. With Detroit’s defensive breakdowns, add scoring upside. I’m starting Dulcich as a back-end TE1 because the combination of increasing involvement and the league’s most favorable tight end matchup is too good to leave on the bench.
Tight Ends to Sit
Dalton Kincaid, TE (BUF)
Dalton Kincaid delivered against Baltimore, but I’m not chasing that performance into Minnesota. He caught four of six targets for 86 yards and a touchdown, producing 18.6 PPR points while playing through a chest injury. His season-long efficiency has been strong, averaging 2.51 yards per route run with a 77.14% catch rate and a 10.11-yard average target depth. Those numbers show why he can produce a big game when Buffalo gets him involved downfield. The concern is how consistently he receives enough opportunities to repeat it. Kincaid has an 18.13% target share, and his recent six-target performance doesn’t establish the kind of dominant workload that makes a difficult matchup easy to overlook.
Minnesota has given tight ends almost nothing to work with. Through seven games, the Vikings have allowed just 22 receptions for 273 yards and no touchdowns, limiting the position to a league-low 5.5 half-PPR points per game. They held Sam LaPorta to 33 yards last week, continuing a season in which no opposing tight end has exceeded 9.5 PPR points. That creates a difficult setup for Kincaid to repeat the yardage and scoring production that carried his performance against Baltimore. Buffalo can move the ball through other players without forcing targets into a matchup Minnesota has consistently dominated against opposing tight ends. I’m sitting Kincaid because his efficiency doesn’t outweigh a defense that has eliminated both touchdown production and substantial receiving totals from the position.
Dallas Goedert, TE (PHI)
Dallas Goedert continues to play enough snaps to attract fantasy interest, but Philadelphia’s offense isn’t turning that opportunity into meaningful production. He caught all four targets for 30 yards against Washington, adding a two-yard rush and finishing with just 7.2 PPR points despite playing 80% of the offensive snaps. Goedert hasn’t scored since his two-touchdown performance in Week 1, leaving him dependent on catches and modest yardage totals. His season-long 17.33% target share and 1.61 yards per route run haven’t been enough to overcome that scoring drought. A 5.69-yard average target depth also has limited his ceiling without the touchdowns. Add in the fact we have a chance at quarterback from Tanner McKee to Joe Milton, who knows what the Eagles’ passing game will hold this week.
There isn’t much in the Giants matchup to suggest a sudden turnaround. New York has allowed just 313 receiving yards and two touchdowns to tight ends through seven games, making it difficult to count on either a yardage breakout or an end to Goedert’s touchdown drought. Philadelphia has also ranked 29th in scoring and last in yards per play across Tanner McKee’s three starts. Goedert can remain on the field for most of the game and still finish with another short receiving line if the Eagles struggle to sustain drives. His playing time provides opportunity, but it hasn’t provided enough fantasy production to justify starting him on name value. I’m sitting Goedert because the limited downfield role, prolonged scoring drought, and struggling offense leave him with too little upside against a defense that has contained the position.
Juwan Johnson, TE (NO)
Juwan Johnson’s declining role has become a bigger problem than the disappointing fantasy totals. In New Orleans’ last game before its Week 8 bye, he caught his only target for seven yards while running a route on just 59% of dropbacks. He was targeted on only 4% of those routes and produced 0.29 yards per route run in that game. His route participation had fallen below 60% in consecutive appearances, with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp taking meaningful work in the tight end rotation. Johnson’s season-long 14.07% target share and 1.25 yards per route run offer little reassurance, particularly when the recent usage is weaker than those averages. He has scored just 7.3 PPR points combined over his last three games, and the shrinking opportunities explain why the production has disappeared.
Even a workable matchup against Cleveland won’t fix Johnson’s outlook unless New Orleans changes how it uses him. The Browns are among the ten most generous defenses in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so this isn’t a sit based on an impossible opponent. However, their pass defense has allowed just a 59.5% completion rate and 6.6 yards per attempt while generating pressure on 38.3% of dropbacks. Those numbers make it harder to expect Johnson to turn a handful of routes and targets into a productive afternoon. Fant’s involvement in passing situations and Delp’s role in multiple tight-end packages continue to reduce the opportunities Johnson needs. I’m sitting him because the declining routes and targets leave too little production to trust, regardless of what the positional matchup suggests.
Defenses to Start
Chicago Bears DEF vs. TB
Chicago held Seattle to 252 total yards while recording three sacks and an interception, and Tampa Bay’s offensive numbers support another strong performance. The Buccaneers rank 29th in offensive EPA per play at −0.14, with a 40.24% success rate and a league-worst −0.28 EPA per pass. Their 3.37% interception rate adds turnover upside, while their 28th-ranked sack rate allowed creates opportunities for Chicago’s pass rush. Tampa Bay won without completing a pass last week, but relying on the ground game to carry the entire offense is a difficult formula against this front. I’m starting the Bears because the Buccaneers’ inefficient passing attack and protection problems give Chicago a strong opportunity to produce sacks, turnovers, and stalled drives.
New York Giants DEF @ PHI
Philadelphia’s offensive struggles make the Giants a worthwhile streamer coming out of their bye. The Eagles rank 31st in offensive EPA per play at −0.18, with a 37.92% success rate, −0.21 EPA per pass and −0.14 EPA per rush. They haven’t consistently moved the ball through either phase, scoring just 45 combined points and allowing 10 sacks across Tanner McKee’s three starts. Joe Milton III is taking over this week, but a quarterback change doesn’t automatically fix the protection or create a dependable rushing attack. I’m starting the Giants because Philadelphia’s inability to sustain efficient possessions creates a favorable scoring environment for a defense, with additional upside if Milton makes mistakes while trying to generate bigger plays.
Houston Texans DEF @ LAC
Houston’s recent defensive results haven’t been impressive, but the Chargers have the worst offensive profile in football. Los Angeles ranks last in EPA per play at −0.27 and offensive success rate at 35.58%, while producing −0.32 EPA per pass. Its offensive line ranks 30th in pass-block win rate, giving Houston’s pass rush a favorable matchup. Los Angeles has now gone 27 consecutive possessions without a touchdown, the longest such streak in the NFL since 2024, while allowing 23 sacks and throwing a league-high 10 interceptions this season. I’m starting Houston because this matchup offers everything fantasy managers want: an inefficient offense, a vulnerable quarterback, and repeated opportunities for sacks and takeaways.
Defenses to Sit
Minnesota Vikings DEF vs. BUF
Minnesota recorded four sacks against Detroit last week, but Buffalo makes those opportunities much harder to find. The Bills rank second in offensive EPA per play at +0.13, generating +0.19 EPA per pass and +0.07 EPA per rush with a 47.82% success rate. That efficiency through both phases prevents defenses from simply taking away one part of the offense and forcing predictable passing situations. Josh Allen has also taken only five sacks across Buffalo’s last four games, limiting the sack production Minnesota usually relies on. I’m sitting the Vikings because Buffalo can sustain drives and score without giving the defense enough negative plays to compensate. This is a difficult fantasy matchup even for a defense playing well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF @ CHI
Tampa Bay’s shutout and four interceptions against Atlanta were impressive, but Chicago’s recent offensive performance makes this a much tougher assignment. The Bears have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games, including 34 against Seattle, when Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and took only one sack. Since returning, Williams has generated 0.43 passing fantasy points per dropback, and his season-long 70.9% completion rate and +7.6 percentage-point completion percentage over expectation show how accurately he has been throwing. Chicago has also scored 17 rushing touchdowns, giving it another way to finish drives. I’m sitting Tampa Bay because the Bears are protecting the quarterback and creating touchdowns without needing to take the risks that fueled last week’s interception haul.
San Francisco 49ers DEF vs. LV
The Raiders’ passing efficiency makes San Francisco a riskier fantasy start than this matchup might appear. Las Vegas averages +0.18 EPA per pass and has thrown 19 touchdowns against a 1.71% interception rate, giving the offense a productive passing game without an excessive number of giveaways. Kirk Cousins just completed 19 of 26 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets, posting 0.47 EPA per dropback and a 55.6% success rate. The Raiders have also allowed only 11 sacks all season, limiting another major source of defensive fantasy points. Their rushing offense remains inefficient, but Cousins has consistently compensated through the air. I’m sitting the 49ers because Las Vegas’ passing production and low sack total make it difficult to count on a strong fantasy return.
Kickers to Start
Matt Gay, K (LV) @ SF
Matt Gay converted a 53-yard field goal and all five extra points against the Jets, continuing to benefit from a productive Raiders offense. His season-long accuracy has been strong, making 18 of 20 field goals, and Las Vegas has consistently created scoring opportunities with Kirk Cousins under center. San Francisco presents a tougher defensive assignment, but that can still work for Gay if the Raiders move into range before drives stall. The 49ers have allowed three kickers to score at least 11 fantasy points since Week 3. I’m starting Gay because his accuracy, range, and offensive support give him a strong opportunity to contribute even if Las Vegas finishes fewer possessions with touchdowns.
Cairo Santos, K (CHI) vs. TB
Cairo Santos has benefited from Chicago’s offensive improvement, making two field goals and four extra points against Seattle after converting three field goals against New England. The Bears have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games, giving Santos consistent opportunities without needing the offense to operate perfectly. Tampa Bay’s defense is capable of forcing drives to stall, but opponents have still generated useful kicking production: four kickers have scored at least 13 fantasy points against the Buccaneers this season. I’m starting Santos because Chicago is regularly moving into scoring position, and a competitive matchup should keep both field goals and extra points available.
Jason Myers, K (SEA) vs. ARI
Jason Myers needs a rebound after making one of two field goals, having a kick blocked and missing his only extra-point attempt against Chicago. He remains 15-for-17 on field goals this season, so one poor game doesn’t erase his overall accuracy. Arizona offers a favorable opportunity for Seattle to recover offensively, although Sam Darnold’s absence adds uncertainty. Drew Lock is expected to start while managing an elbow injury, and Seattle scored 31 points in his earlier start against the Cardinals. I’m starting Myers because the matchup gives Seattle a reasonable path back into scoring range, with field-goal opportunities available if drives stall under the backup quarterback.
Kickers to Sit
Harrison Butker, K (KC) vs. NYJ
Harrison Butker missed another field goal against Denver, finishing one-for-two while converting all three extra points. He is now 12-for-18 on field goals this season, including just two makes on seven attempts from 50 yards or longer, significantly reducing the value of his long-distance opportunities. The Jets haven’t consistently produced big fantasy results for opposing kickers either, allowing only two to reach double digits this season. A productive Chiefs afternoon could leave Butker collecting extra points without enough field goals to separate him from better streaming options. I’m sitting him because the accuracy problems, particularly from distance, outweigh the appeal of kicking for a favored offense.
Chase McLaughlin, K (TB) @ CHI
Chase McLaughlin has scored double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games and six of eight overall, but Chicago is a difficult matchup for extending that streak. Only one opposing kicker has exceeded seven fantasy points against the Bears this season, and that was Will Reichard with nine. Chicago’s defense just held Seattle to 252 yards and one third-down conversion, showing how effectively it can prevent an offense from reaching scoring range. McLaughlin’s recent production deserves respect, but Tampa Bay needs sustained drives to create opportunities for him. I’m sitting him this week because Chicago’s ability to end possessions threatens his field-goal volume.
Chad Ryland, K (ARI) @ SEA
Chad Ryland made both field-goal attempts and three of four extra points against Dallas after converting three field goals against Denver the previous week. His season-long 19-for-21 field-goal record shows that accuracy isn’t the concern. The problem is an Arizona offense facing a Seattle defense that has allowed just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and −0.13 EPA per play. Gardner Minshew helped the Cardinals rally against Dallas, but sustaining drives against Seattle will be a tougher assignment. If Arizona falls behind and needs touchdowns, it could also pass up field-goal opportunities. I’m sitting Ryland because the offensive matchup threatens his opportunities despite his strong recent kicking.
